ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Ventilation should improve as it moves west in between the ULL and the TUTT.

[Nimbus]

Storm2K consensus sees 04l remnants weakening waiting for gulf data.
Glad this isn't September and we don't get storms like the Unnamed Hurricane of 1945.
I think there is a chance of getting a named storm again before first landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

so tomorrow at noon we will have our first recon

I wonder if those 45 to 60 knot west winds on ASCAT had something to do with that.

Be careful, those winds are from WindSat, not ASCAT. I don't really trust WindSat surface obs that much....

I dont for wind speed especially near deep convection but for wind direction its right there with ASCAT.

[Aric Dunn]

Storm2K consensus sees 04l remnants weakening waiting for gulf data.
Glad this isn't September and we don't get storms like the Unnamed Hurricane of 1945.
I think there is a chance of getting a named storm again before first landfall.

what storm2k consensus waiting for gulf ? I see no such thing.. lol

[northjaxpro]

The big question, will the 12z models pick up on this?

not if they keep overdoing the dry air..

This was a point I made earlier last night. I also pointed out that I thought the models were overanalyzing the dry air as well Aric

BTW, this system looks about as good as I have seen it late this morning. I think it is well on its way of being classified as a TC again.
.

[GCANE]

I wonder if those 45 to 60 knot west winds on ASCAT had something to do with that.

Be careful, those winds are from WindSat, not ASCAT. I don't really trust WindSat surface obs that much....

I dont for wind speed especially near deep convection but for wind direction its right there with ASCAT.

There is plenty of west barbs outside the convection.

[Blown Away]

The low level clouds racing W and the blob seems stuck. Hard to buy in when there is little to no model support.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm not questioning the west winds outside of the convection, I'm questioning the 45–60-kt west winds that were mentioned in the post

[BeRad954]

The last image seems to show a somewhat large burst of convection, to the SW
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[weathaguyry]

I don't think that the models are a good way to see if this will develop, we need to look at real-time data, which shows a developing TC, just because the models are showing nothing, doesn't mean we should completely ignore the data being shown, also, models tend to do bad with re-developing TC's

[wxman57]

Here's a sat pic with surface obs from my workstation. There is evidence of a weak and likely elongated surface circulation. Pressure is quite high in all the obs. Couldn't rule out the chance of the circulation eventually becoming well-enough defined to become a TD again. TS not out of the question as well, but not today.

[gfsperpendicular]

The last image seems to show a somewhat large burst of convection, to the SW
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

I think that's a different system but 04L has a band of inflow that links the two so maybe 04L will burst again?

[BeRad954]

The last image seems to show a somewhat large burst of convection, to the SW
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

I think that's a different system but 04L has a band of inflow that links the two so maybe 04L will burst again?

This would explain why I couldn't find it on anywhere else

[Blown Away]

Weak & elongated. My best guess.

[Alyono]

12Z models backing off on this so far

[Aric Dunn]

So here is whats happening that is likely causing the apparent arc clouds/out flow at the surface. I dont think it was a dry air issue as there is still a large amount of inflow from the SE,S, and SW sustaining convection except the north half where convergence was cut off due to the elongation of the wave axis. if you notice in the loop ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html ) the entire wave axis has keeled over and is nearly orientated east to west. This process has added vorticity/energy to the western lobe which has pulled along some of the vorticity from the llc's north quad and effectively reduced the convergence on the northern half of the llc causing that portion of the convection to collapse and creating the "arc' clouds seen. eventually the western lobe will flatten out and weaken as it drops south over the next several hours.

[Siker]

12z UKMET picks this up again in the Gulf south of LA:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 26.9N 91.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.07.2017 132 27.2N 92.6W 1010 24
1200UTC 16.07.2017 144 27.4N 94.9W 1007 26

[tailgater]

Be careful, those winds are from WindSat, not ASCAT. I don't really trust WindSat surface obs that much....

I dont for wind speed especially near deep convection but for wind direction its right there with ASCAT.

There is plenty of west barbs outside the convection.


http://i63.tinypic.com/10i8ps8.png

I don't see any North winds near what we are thinking the center is, am I missing something?

[marionstorm]

Do we have any idea where this is going if it redevelops?

[Hurricaneman]

Do we have any idea where this is going if it redevelops?

Across Florida and into the GOM to possibly as far west as Texas