Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Kingarabian]

Had a hard time tracking the vorticity of this wave after 28 hours on the recent Euro Parallel. At least the time frame is closing in, so we'll see tomorrow or after tomorrow who is right or wrong

[cycloneye]

Good advice from Levi regarding the models.

@TropicalTidbits
When some models develop a wave and others don't, what do you do? Watch for short-term convective disagreements. Which model does better?

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/884375842092089344

[Kingarabian]

that's tough to do because some waves look so bad but then quickly develop, and some wave look really good and then poof.

Within 24 hours we'll get a clearer idea though.

[Emmett_Brown]

These waves are simply battling July climo IMO. We will probably see some fantom storms the next couple of weeks until prime time in August. In many fairly busy years we had to wait until late August for the first storm, so having some early TS and TD's is still impressive. Seeing the GFS trend weaker this morning gives me confidence that development is unlikely, and if something does form, it will be weak due to the SAL climo of July.

[wxman57]

I notice that not one of the 50 ECMWF ensemble members develops this disturbance.

[cycloneye]

As I said earlier,what is going on in real time is the important thig to watch if you are in the Lesser Antilles.

Image is looking to wave at upper right corner as Ramsdis has no floater yet pinpointing the wave.



Loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

[AJC3]

One thing to consider: Few observations come from Africa. We do not get the best picture of what will happen until these waves are a fair bit offshore. It is then that the satellite data can be ingested into the models. It's the satellite data that shows if we will have a SAL or not.

Hard to see the SAL until it the SAL is pushing offshore

The current outbreak looks wicked cool on the GOES-16 Dust RGB, even though it's at the eastern limb of the imager.

[cycloneye]

GOES-16 loop.Wave is in the extreme right part.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[SFLcane]

I notice that not one of the 50 ECMWF ensemble members develops this disturbance.

More then likely means next..

[TheStormExpert]

Morphed composite shows it may be in the process of trying to spin-up. I can see why the GFS loves this TW so much but I'm not sure it's correct with fully developing it.

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/884413214771097600




There's a reason why the ECMWF & GFS are opposite on MDR tropical cyclone development; ECMWF shows strong suppressed Kelvin wave, GFS doesnt

[LarryWx]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/884413214771097600




There's a reason why the ECMWF & GFS are opposite on MDR tropical cyclone development; ECMWF shows strong suppressed Kelvin wave, GFS doesnt

I mentioned yesterday that the MJO forecasts are unusually far different for the next few days with the GEFS staying around where it is inside the circle near phase 2 followed by an unusual clockwise rotation backwards into relatively favorable phases whereas the usually more reliable EPS has it rotating counterclockwise into phase 3 followed by phase 4 pretty quickly. Usually the EPS verifies more closely fwiw. It will be interesting to see which model comes closer.

[RL3AO]

The GEFS has major biases near South America with the MJO (and likely Kelvin Waves). If the GFS and Euro are vastly different, it's hard not to lean towards the Euro.

[WeatherEmperor]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/884413214771097600




There's a reason why the ECMWF & GFS are opposite on MDR tropical cyclone development; ECMWF shows strong suppressed Kelvin wave, GFS doesnt

Does the current state of the atmosphere more resemlbe the Euro or Gfs in regards to Kelvin wave?


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[abajan]

As I said earlier,what is going on in real time is the important thig to watch if you are in the Lesser Antilles.

Image is looking to wave at upper right corner as Ramsdis has no floater yet pinpointing the wave.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/lgMgdNn.gif[img]

Loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

Rotation is very evident in that loop. Although, I'm not sure at which level in the atmosphere it's occurring.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12z GFS run starts in about 15 minutes. Very interesting run IMO.


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[gatorcane]

The 12z GFS run starts in about 15 minutes. Very interesting run IMO.


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My guess is that the GFS is going to have to back down soon from development if not this run, very soon. You have no other global model developing it not to mention not one ECMWF ensemble run. Wouldn't be surprised if it just shows a weak system heading west through the Caribbean and eventually into Central America.

The other thing is that the wave doesn't look that impressive at all, just a typical July wave moving through the tropical MDR. To think the GFS is (at least was in the 00Z run) forecasting a potential hurricane in 4 to 5 days doesn't make sense.

[WeatherEmperor]

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[abajan]

The GFS 12Z seems to be stuck on hour 42. MOVE IT! The suspense is awful for me in Barbados.

[psyclone]

June=too soon...July=too dry. We've seen this story before with the GFS. The NHC's 4 out of five shot of no development seems reasonable.