Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Kingarabian]

Off topic..but ex td4 trending a bit stronger on the Euro coming into the northern gulf coast..that may need to be watched down the road

Yeah. Seeing a system with TS force winds into the panhandle.

[Dylan]

It's not that impressive on satellite in all reality compared to when it first splashed down. So depth of the vort is all subjective by the models.

That happens all of the time. Satellite presentation is a moot point at this time. What we do have is satelite data, and the GFS has the best initialization based on the data. How are we to blame the ECMWF if it's being fed garbage? I'd post the image because it's clear as day, but I'm on my phone.

The high resolution Euro at 6hrs has an identical vort depth as the GFS. So I'm assuming it has the right information.

What we should question is if all the models have the same RH information.

I have a Weatherbell account, and I'm looking at it now. The European does not have a nearly as concentrated 850mb vort as what the satellite derived data from CIMSS is presenting, or what the GFS closely initialized with. To me, that is a red flag.

[Ivanhater]

Also something to keep in mind..if the Euro had a storm like the gfs...it wouldn't recurve. Most likely into Florida or the Gulf

[Kingarabian]

That happens all of the time. Satellite presentation is a moot point at this time. What we do have is satelite data, and the GFS has the best initialization based on the data. How are we to blame the ECMWF if it's being fed garbage? I'd post the image because it's clear as day, but I'm on my phone.

The high resolution Euro at 6hrs has an identical vort depth as the GFS. So I'm assuming it has the right information.

What we should question is if all the models have the same RH information.

I have a Weatherbell account, and I'm looking at it now. The European does not have a nearly as concentrated 850mb vort as what the satellite derived data from CIMSS is presenting, or what the GFS closely initialized with. To me, that is a red flag.

Initialization aside, every model except for the operational GFS have generally unfavorable conditions across the MDR and in the Caribbean.

This system will have to become a hurricane before it reaches the Caribbean so that it may have a chance in fending off the higher shear waiting for it. And the odds of this becoming a hurricane in the next 72hrs are quite low.

[Dylan]

The high resolution Euro at 6hrs has an identical vort depth as the GFS. So I'm assuming it has the right information.

What we should question is if all the models have the same RH information.

I have a Weatherbell account, and I'm looking at it now. The European does not have a nearly as concentrated 850mb vort as what the satellite derived data from CIMSS is presenting, or what the GFS closely initialized with. To me, that is a red flag.

Initialization aside, every model except for the operational GFS have generally unfavorable conditions across the MDR and in the Caribbean.

This system will have to become a hurricane before it reaches the Caribbean so that it may have a chance in fending off the higher shear waiting for it. And the odds of this becoming a hurricane in the next 72hrs are quite low.

I don't disagree with you about that, but that's a different conversation concerning the environmental conditions. Remember though that a strong system the GFS is depicting would be able to have its own strong upper level anti-cyclonic circulation to not only brush off any shear, but use it for ventilation.

About the initialization of the ECM we can agree to disagree. I'm 10 months from getting my Meteorology Degree, and I trust what I see based on the data available to me. And it's clear that the GFS initialied future 95L better than the ECMWF based on the Satellite derived data from CIMSS.

[Kingarabian]

I have a Weatherbell account, and I'm looking at it now. The European does not have a nearly as concentrated 850mb vort as what the satellite derived data from CIMSS is presenting, or what the GFS closely initialized with. To me, that is a red flag.

Initialization aside, every model except for the operational GFS have generally unfavorable conditions across the MDR and in the Caribbean.

This system will have to become a hurricane before it reaches the Caribbean so that it may have a chance in fending off the higher shear waiting for it. And the odds of this becoming a hurricane in the next 72hrs are quite low.

I don't disagree with you about that, but that's a different conversation concerning the environmental conditions. Remember though that a strong system the GFS is depicting would be able to have its own strong upper level anti-cyclonic circulation to not only brush off any shear, but use it for ventilation.

About the initialization of the ECM we can agree to disagree. I'm 10 months from getting my Meteorology Degree, and I trust what I see based on the data available to me. And it's clear that the GFS initialied future 95L better than the ECMWF based on the Satellite derived data from CIMSS.

I respect that and I don't mean to question your thought process.

I'm sure you make a good point. From my experience, the models quite often initialize storms wrong (just take a look at how bad the initialization is with Eugene currently), but they normally get the bigger picture correct.

[Ivanhater]

Add another gfs run into the development column. ..06z Gfs strengthening storm into islands at 120 hours

[TheStormExpert]

Weaker into the islands but still strengthening at the same rate as previous runs once over the islands.

[Ivanhater]

Getting shredded. .trough lifting out faster..have a feeling future runs will have this a Caribbean cruiser

[TheStormExpert]

Yep GFS is notorious for overdoing troughs. Also wouldn't be surprised if it trends weaker in future runs.

[Ivanhater]

234 hours..entering the Gulf and strengthening

[tarheelprogrammer]

It is getting to the point where you cannot trust the GFS 2 to 3 days out. Smh I guess the upgrade truly is needed.

[Ivanhater]

Hurricane into Texas/Mexico border

[TheStormExpert]

This run was nearly identical to yesterday's 00z run bringing it over Haiti and the spine of Cuba.

[Kingarabian]

Less EPS support at 00z.

[TheStormExpert]

Was there even any EPS support to begin with?

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a
tropical wave. Some gradual development is possible through the
week while this system moves westward at about 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[ROCK]

Wow NHC kept 20% not sure why..Euro does nothing with this as does no other global..except the GFS-op...

[Alyono]

One thing to consider: Few observations come from Africa. We do not get the best picture of what will happen until these waves are a fair bit offshore. It is then that the satellite data can be ingested into the models. It's the satellite data that shows if we will have a SAL or not.

Hard to see the SAL until it the SAL is pushing offshore

[Kingarabian]

Was there even any EPS support to begin with?

EPS becomes generous from run to run and gives this system 2 ensembles.