Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[South Texas Storms]

Meanwhile the GFS Parallel has nothing.

[SFLcane]

Sadly I don't think this will be a ghost storm..

[weathaguyry]

Not to mention it's only 3 days from a full moon so tides will be elevated

[tarheelprogrammer]

No other model support still, correct?

[weathaguyry]

In the Gulf at hr 264 at 978mb

[WeatherEmperor]

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[BobHarlem]

No other model support still, correct?

Correct, GFS is garbage today. This GFS run is a jerk wish casters dream though.

[Ivanhater]

Into gulf as a major

[ROCK]

If the GFs para doesn't see it..I just stayed up way past my bed time. I must never waiver in my faith of the EURO!! Saying that like 10 times..

[AutoPenalti]

wtf GFS...

[Ivanhater]

Knew it

[AxaltaRacing24]

Now the GFS is creating a Katrina.

[weathaguyry]

Strengthening cane' paralleling N Gulf Coast at 276 hrs

[tarheelprogrammer]

In the case of the GFS, remember the TD4. Historical geeks will get it.

[weathaguyry]

955mb cane south of NOLA at hr 300, completely paralleling the N Gulf Coast delivering horrifying storm surge from Florida to at least LA

[ROCK]

955mb nice right into NO yep that would take the levees right out...glad that is 276hr and extremely long range.

[weathaguyry]

982mb low weakening over TX/LA border at 324hrs.

[Ivanhater]

Major hurricane hitting the entire northern gulf coast

[AxaltaRacing24]

IF this verified this would challenge Katrina and whatever name this takes would never be seen again.

[blp]

00z Canadian shows nothing just like the Ukmet.


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If the 0z CMC and 0z UKMET can't see it and the 0Z Euro tonight hold true, oh man that would be the nail in the coffin for the mighty GFS. Time to shut her down.

I see ping pong with all the flip flopping from the other models. Lets not forget the Euro was the first one to show this as a nice system and ran it for several runs before GFS jumped on it and then Ukie and CMC got on it and then the Euro lost it and last run Euro started hinting at it again. It's like they can't decide which vorticity will consolidate and when they lose it is gone completely just like CMC tonight. It's really hard to buy into the GFS with so much model fluctuation. I don't even know if the Euro showing something tonight means anything because it might drop it completely again at the 12z.