Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[ROCK]

Talk about a tinny tiny storm..at 90 seems low in lat to me...Mike you might be correct in that the Euro can't see it..

[ROCK]

At 102 pull up pull up!!

[weathaguyry]

Deepening in a similar fashion to the 18z at 102 hours, now a 999mb strong TS

[AutoPenalti]

I will not be happy if I stayed up this long just to see the GFS scrape some mess into CA, I want to see a monster Cat 5 *that goes out to sea without harming anyone*

Sucks we won't see that anytime soon, at least not in July.

[Ivanhater]

Talk about a tinny tiny storm..at 90 seems low in lat to me...Mike you might be correct in that the Euro can't see it..

That's what I'm thinking rock...we've seen this happen before...have a feeling this season will have many late night model watching!

[weathaguyry]

I am very tired right now, but this upbeat 70's music is the only thing keeping me awake right now. Looks to be about ready to head NW at 114hrs. no reason why it shouldn't, since the High looks about the same

[weathaguyry]

Headed more NW at 120hrs. at 980mb, more in line with 18z

[ROCK]

That's got to be the smallest 980 TC I have even seen... at 120 pulling thru the islands

[weathaguyry]

Same location as 18z at 132hrs., but 11mbs higher, what gives? Same amount of moisture and shear as 18z showed

[weathaguyry]

977mb cane at 144hrs., same spot at 18z

[ROCK]

Know one thing if it goes into DR that little core doesn't stand a chance..150 heading right for it

[Siker]

Same location as 18z at 132hrs., but 11mbs higher, what gives? Same amount of moisture and shear as 18z showed

Just hypothesizing but it seems the anticyclone aloft is not quite as vigorous compared to the 18z. You can see the shear vectors directed to the north and then whisked eastward on the west side of the storm compared to a more gradual, circular setup on the 18z. This indicates slightly more convergent flow aloft and thus less intensification so far.

[weathaguyry]

975mb and DR bound at 156 hrs.

[BobHarlem]

I think the GFS is overdoing it, if anything it'll go a lot further west (Caribbean runner). I don't buy the intensity. GFS Para is probably closer (but probably a bit further south).

[Siker]

Nada on the 00z UKMET.

[weathaguyry]

Same location as 18z at 132hrs., but 11mbs higher, what gives? Same amount of moisture and shear as 18z showed

Just hypothesizing but it seems the anticyclone aloft is not quite as vigorous compared to the 18z. You can see the shear vectors directed to the north and then whisked eastward on the west side of the storm compared to a more gradual, circular setup on the 18z. This indicates slightly more convergent flow aloft and thus less intensification so far.

Interesting, although the pressure isn't too much different than the 18z, only about 5-10mb's at most

[ROCK]

975mb and DR bound at 156 hrs.

Yep...about to eat some mountains unless its core can slip thru the passage ..

[weathaguyry]

Nada on the 00z UKMET.

[weathaguyry]

Deepens a little to 971mb before DR landfall, looks quite like 18z

[WeatherEmperor]

00z Canadian shows nothing just like the Ukmet.


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