ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Given the latest trends, I am expecting a bit different mention from NHC about TD 4 remnants sometime soon SouthDadeFish.

They'll probably wait until tomorrow morning if things persist. NHC tends to wait for the Euro to show some sort of development on a consistent basis based on the timing of the mentions.

[Hurricaneman]

Another example of regeneration that was poorly modeled was Irene in 2005

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro Parallel is weaker than the 12z OP Euro until it gets in the gulf where it attempts to consolidate but ends up washing away. Not sure if the Euro Parallel used the 12z EPS or the 00z EPS.

GFS and GFS Parallel always come out together, but the Euro Parallel always comes out like 3-5 hours after the OP Euro but I'm not sure if its due to ECMWF pushing it later, running it later, or Ryan Maue updating his site until later.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Northjaxspro,

So here we are talking about what we said could happen last night. It had maintained the convection and seems almost stationary , starting to get a little concerned, this could get going again before getting to S. FLA.

[northjaxpro]

Yes indeed we are talking about it again tonight. The system indeed as endured quite well and I think the worst has passed. I see nothing but improving upper level conditions going forward as the entity pulls farther away from the influences of the ULL to its north and northeast.. I think the process of regeneration has already begun, evidenced by the new convective blowup and the circulation , albeit weak currently, just on the outer western edge of the new convection.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/884191346365476864




Also:

 https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/884192076384145408




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/884192525728313344

[Nimbus]

There was a surface pressure reading of 1015 near the small CoC, guess I would expect 1013 before I would call it a strengthening trend or reclassiy it as a TD. Getting close to invest time though.

And with the 35 knot winds in the northern quadrants it would probably be upgraded directly to a TS.

[northjaxpro]

NHC just put out their 8 p.m. TWO. They did not mention anything yet about the TD 4 remnants. However, I think that will change come tomorrow morning, especially if the EURO gets bullish on regeneration in its next set of runs early Monday.morning. That is more so than it has shown in previous runs up to now.

[Hammy]

Massive decrease in shear--wasn't it around 60kt yesterday?

[GCANE]

Getting a good feed of mid-layer moist air from the convective debris coming off DR.

[WeatherHoon]

Watch it fizzle out tonight.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop:

[Sciencerocks]

Massive decrease in shear--wasn't it around 60kt yesterday?

Around 30-40 knots over the northside.

The gfs did predict the anti-cyclone forcing the shear from the ull northward allowing for more favorable conditions.

[GCANE]

Air is really juiced. CAPE at 3400 just west of the CoC. Yesterday it was forecast to be 3000.
Very heavy popups over Cuba & Fl.

[northjaxpro]

This is concerning for me as the ingredients are definitely coming together for this system to really potentially start getting its act together, especially once the system traverses past 70 degrees Longitude. Conditions really look quite good for this: Low shear, moist environment and reasonably warm ssts. We could be looking at a potentially interesting week ahead folks.

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: This is concerning for me as the ingredients are definitely coming together for this system to really potentially start getting its act together, especially once the system traverses past 70 degrees Longitude. Conditions really look quite good for this: Low shear, moist environment and reasonably warm ssts. We could be looking at a potentially interesting week ahead folks.

Yeah it is interesting that the models don't really try to ramp this up as it approaches the Bahamas. Looking closely at the model charts, it appears it must by dry air that prevent new convection. Upper-level winds do look light and it seems it will be between an upper-level low to the west and one to the east (albeit quite far to the east) as it traverses west.

[SouthDadeFish]

:uarrow: This is concerning for me as the ingredients are definitely coming together for this system to really potentially start getting its act together, especially once the system traverses past 70 degrees Longitude. Conditions really look quite good for this: Low shear, moist environment and reasonably warm ssts. We could be looking at a potentially interesting week ahead folks.

I know what you're getting at, but I wouldn't really call this a moist environment:



That's probably why the models are so skittish with development. Dry mid-tropospheric air is basically surrounding the disturbance. Shear is dropping, but convection will have difficulty sustaining near a potential surface center due to the dry air to the west of the convection.

[GCANE]

:uarrow: This is concerning for me as the ingredients are definitely coming together for this system to really potentially start getting its act together, especially once the system traverses past 70 degrees Longitude. Conditions really look quite good for this: Low shear, moist environment and reasonably warm ssts. We could be looking at a potentially interesting week ahead folks.

There is also a set up with dual outflow channels: the ULL to the NE and the TUTT to the SW.

[northjaxpro]

I personally do not think the models are handling well the upper level environment currently. I think they are overestimating the dry air in place ahead of TD 4 's remnants. I think the dry air is being squeezed out. We will.know soon enough, especially if this regenerates quicker.than anticipated.

[WeatherHoon]

Not suggesting anything here, just merely curious. How do the conditions compare now to when Katrina formed? I recall Katrina materializing out of nowhere in the Bahamas.