Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[NDG]

18z GFS-P is comical, it sends it to Central A. then redevelops part of its energy in the NW Caribbean/BOC into MX then redevelops its southern energy in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS ensembles still pretty vigorous with the system.

Yes.

[PTrackerLA]

What a high impact run from the GFS . If the GFS is totally out to lunch on this one it needs to be put out of it's misery ASAP. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

[ouragans]

What would be your perception if the GFS is right and Euro is wrong on that TCG hitting the southernmost islands of EC?

Would you guys still consider Euro as THE model?

I generally rely on ECMWF to start infoming my followers and readers, but this time, 13 runs in the row for the GFS hitting EC.. I don't know what to do

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS Parallel is weaker than the OP Euro.

I don't see that.

Meant to say the Euro Parallel, sorry again. It's a lot of models man.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The amount of shear in the western and central Caribbean doesn't mean anything is the GFS solution of a hurricane with a large anticyclone pans out. Remember Matthew and the number of people that claimed it would never become as strong as the GFS was forecasting because of the shear to its west?

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro Parallel is weaker than the OP Euro.

Just wanted to point this out again since my previous post was erroneous.

[weathaguyry]

GFS ensembles centered around FL and the E GOM

[Siker]

12z GFS Parallel is weaker than the OP Euro.

I don't see that.

Meant to say the Euro Parallel, sorry again. It's a lot of models man.

There are currently 3 parallel models available on Tropical Tidbits, plus the Parallel Euro from Weatherbell. Information overload.

[Kingarabian]

The amount of shear in the western and central Caribbean doesn't mean anything is the GFS solution of a hurricane with a large anticyclone pans out. Remember Matthew and the number of people that claimed it would never become as strong as the GFS was forecasting because of the shear to its west?

The GFS is betting hugely on developing a hurricane before the high shear kicks in. The other models keep the system weak as it moves west and then lose the system all together as soon as it runs into shear. So the key point here is probably going to come down to how quickly this system develops, if it develops at all.

[weathaguyry]

GFS ensembles are seeming to like NOLA a lot

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next several
days while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[weathaguyry]

One GFS ensemble member even brings a 935mb Hurricane into W LA

[weathaguyry]

I think NHC is out of their mind if they don't give it at least 0/20 at 8PM

[ROCK]

got to go with climo here since we are talking July here. I don't think you will see as fast as a break down or slow a build back of the BH. IF and that's a HUGE IF the GFS is correct in development. Got to have a nice fat trof that hangs on a while to pull something up and out at that low of latitude JMO......Need more globals to come back around. The 12Z EURO NVGEM CMC UKMET keep this weak or nothing at all. 20% seems logical

wow seems I was correct...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Just curious on the image above, what track did it take to enter the gulf.

[RL3AO]

One GFS ensemble member even brings a 935mb Hurricane into W LA

Three strong ones.

[RL3AO]

Just curious on the image above, what track did it take to enter the gulf.

Most of the GOM tracks from the GEFS went through the Florida Straits or via Cuba.

[ROCK]

hard to ignore GFS ensembles but those all hinge on a develop system. I might have to stay up for the EURO tonight...

[weathaguyry]

Just curious on the image above, what track did it take to enter the gulf.

Most of the GOM tracks from the GEFS went through the Florida Straits or via Cuba.

A few go into Central FL or scrape Miami area