Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[cycloneye]

132 hours between St Lucia ans St Vincent.

[cycloneye]

Looks like PR will not get it as it has moved more west than north.

[RL3AO]

A little more organized on the GFS-P

[cycloneye]

150 hours.Moving more WNW and SW PR (Cabo Rojo) thru Hispanola may get it.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I maintain what I've said for days, that the large-scale environment favors the GFS solution of a tropical cyclone developing east of the islands over the next few days. There may be SAL in the vicinity of the wave, but that's not a detriment when the system is embedded in a large moisture pouch and located pretty far south. A kelvin wave is moving across the Atlantic, shear is low, ocean temperatures are plenty warm, and there's plenty of background vorticity. I give it a 60% chance of developing over the next 5 days. It *certainly* deserves a mention at 8pm from the NHC.

[gatorcane]

Time for NHC to mention this area. Too strong of signal from the GFS and GFS parallel now to ignore and timeframe keeps coming in.

[cycloneye]

Keeps deepening.

[Alyono]

MASSIVE difference in the shear between parallel gfs and operational

operational has a large anti-cyclone, while parallel has a solid el niñoish wall of westerly shear

[cycloneye]

Time for NHC to mention this area. Too strong of signal from the GFS and GFS parallel now to ignore.

Agreed 100%.

[gatorcane]

Heading for DR in one week, MASSIVE trough over Eastern US and Western Atlantic. Looks like a trough you would see in the fall.

[storm4u]

[Disclaimer]

Over Hispaniola at 183

[Kingarabian]

GFS Parallel kills it in the WCARB.

[storm4u]

Just north of Hispaniola at 192 still looks intact

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS kills it in the WCARB.

Para does, operational brings it into Hispaniola as a major hurricane.

[Alyono]

GFS kills it in the WCARB.

thats parallel

[gatorcane]

Just north of Hispaniola at 192 still looks intact

Bermuda High is building back too, glad it is long-range

[Hurricane Andrew]

D7-D8 looks to pound Hispanola, sights set on the Bahamas. Para keeps it as a weak TD in the WCAB, low-riding into CA.

[RL3AO]

Heading for DR in one week, MASSIVE trough over Eastern US and Western Atlantic. Looks like a trough you would see in the fall.

Looks like a standard summer Canadian trough to me. Anomalies are 1 to 2 standard deviations below average for 500 mb heights.

[Hurricane Andrew]

D8-D9: Moving NW thru the eastern Bahamas...

[Kingarabian]

GFS kills it in the WCARB.

Para does, operational brings it into Hispaniola as a major hurricane.

Yes the GFS Parallel.
My bad, forgot to type in Parallel.