Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Kingarabian]

and an we please change the misleading thread title? This is not a strong wave

What to you is considered a strong TW? Btw I'd say development chances are at or near 50/50 right now.

I think a TD is attainable here and maybe a TS down the line. But a major hurricane striking a major city from Mexico to the east coast as the GFS has been showing, is questionable.

[ROCK]

Well I am glad the globals are coming to a consensus...today... some one wake me when the EURO jumps on board again...lol

[gatorcane]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2017070912/jma_mslpaNorm_watl_9.png
12z JMA develops it.

The JMA low-res version rarely is that bullish so far out.

[abajan]

Afternoon update from Mark Sudduth.

[cycloneye]

Loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

A tropical wave is in the far east Atlantic with axis extending
from 16N21W to 06N20W, moving west at about 15 kt. Abundant
moisture prevails within this wave, as noted in TPW imagery.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is mostly along the
southern portion of the wave where it is interaction with the
monsoon trough south of 12N between 19W-23W.

[cycloneye]

JB chims in.

@BigJoeBastardi
GEFS western Caribbean Index remains favorable for enhanced tropical activity this week west of 60 west

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/884155924876857345

[Hurricane Andrew]

New GFS has a closed low in just 24 hrs...we will see.

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
The profile just north of the east Atlantic wave is stable SAL but not very dry. Watching whether that allows convective growth nxt few days

@TropicalTidbits
Also note the stiff mid-level jet (AEJ) at ~650mb, which provides environmental vorticity at mid-levels while the wave is still far east.




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/884165412493152258

[ROCK]

The 12z CMC nada 12z Euro nada 12z Nav nada..looks like GFS on its own for a while. Still maybe they will swing back around later tonight...

[cycloneye]

Development begins between 40W-50W on the 18z GFS operational.

[cycloneye]

90 hours:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS trending stronger through 96 hours.

[Hurricane Andrew]

GFS-P is also a little stronger thru 108.

[Kingarabian]

GFS Parallel also coming in stronger.

[cycloneye]

96 hours.

[cycloneye]

Looks like Puerto Rico may be close to landfall this run.

114 hours as Hurricane.

[Dylan]

The GFS Isn't even blinking. As a matter of fact, it's doubling down on development, coming in stronger this run.

[bubba hotep]

The GFS Isn't even blinking. As a matter of fact, it's doubling down on development, coming in stronger this run.

No doubt, perfectly stacked all the way through the column and bombing Lol

Way to go 18z GFS

[Hurricane Andrew]

Islands getting hammered D5-D6 by a moderate hurricane...GFS hasn't budged an inch. Extremely interested to see the GEFS.