ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

convection is increasing near that rotation and the vort is becoming more defined by the minute.. good inflow.

[AutoPenalti]

Do you think the remnants will head towards Florida?

thats what it looks like.

Which is why this still remains a trackable entity, and has my attention again.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF has a much more defined vort at 24 hours compared to previous runs. Hmmm...

[northjaxpro]

Overall I think that the remnants of TD 4 have held up quite well. Convection continues to fire up around the entity and considering all that it's been through, I think this system has definitely garnered my attention for possible regeneration. Conditions will only improve as we look into the next 36 to 48 hours as shear levels drop off as the remnants traverse towards the Bahamas and Florida this upcoming week.

[gatorcane]

48 hours:

[gatorcane]

The 12Z Euro has a more defined vort out through 48 hours. This area definitely bears watching.

[MississippiWx]

The 12Z Euro has a more defined vort out through 48 hours. This area definitely bears watching.

Yep. Time for the NHC to circle it.

[Aric Dunn]

We have had way way way less organized systems with no model support have decent chances. Lol

structure continues to improve since yesterday and more so this morning.

[RL3AO]

[Alyono]

UKMET now developing this in the Gulf

[Orlando]

If I look at this page:

http://www.tropicwx.com/

there are several pictures where it looks like the circulation is at about 57/30 degrees. Is that what you all are talking about where the center is or is is somewhere else? If that is it, it looks more like it will come in closer to south Georgia, provided it moves west.

[GCANE]

Convection seems to be closing in NE of the CoC

[Aric Dunn]

If I look at this page:

http://www.tropicwx.com/

there are several pictures where it looks like the circulation is at about 57/30 degrees. Is that what you all are talking about where the center is or is is somewhere else? If that is it, it looks more like it will come in closer to south Georgia, provided it moves west.

That is an upper level low. The feature is south of there. Roughly 22n 62w

[Aric Dunn]

Convection seems to be closing in NE of the CoC

Agreed and the over low level structure is becoming more defined and exansive with a lot of inflow... lacking on the west side

[Orlando]

Okay, thanks! I just don't see the circulation at that point. I'm still learning.

[Aric Dunn]

Okay, thanks! I just don't see the circulation at that point. I'm still learning.

No problem. Thats what we are here for

[Aric Dunn]

Well last hour or so.. clear signs of cu cloud lines forming on south and west side a developing circ pressure may be dropping some and allowing the wind field to close off. Looks rather good at the moment in terms of developing TC compared to so many others that were less organized.

[northjaxpro]

Well last hour or so.. clear signs of cu cloud lines forming on south and west side a developing circ pressure may be dropping some and allowing the wind field to close off. Looks rather good at the moment in terms of developing TC compared to so many others that were less organized.

I agree with you Aric.

[N2FSU]

Euro now brings a weak 1014 low in around Apalachicola next weekend.

[tarheelprogrammer]

UKMET now developing this in the Gulf

Image?