Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Lol Storm expert thinking the same thing.

[Kingarabian]

Doubt the 00z Euro will come back on board since EPS don't have anything.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Please educate me with the EPS?

[TheStormExpert]

Please educate me with the EPS?

They're the Euro Ensembles.

[Kingarabian]

Please educate me with the EPS?

They're the ensembles. GFS has GEFS, CMC has GEPS, and the Euro has EPS.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you Storm, but I thought the Euro ran later this evening, or in my case tomorrow morning.

[Weather150]

Getting stronger now as it gets close to the Lesser Antilles, down to 994mb.

[TheStormExpert]

Thank you Storm, but I thought the Euro ran later this evening, or in my case tomorrow morning.

They're likely the 12z Ensembles.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

correction thank you King.

[Kingarabian]

Thank you Storm, but I thought the Euro ran later this evening, or in my case tomorrow morning.

OP Euro usually follows the previous EPS run.

[PTrackerLA]

00z GFS looks near hurricane strength as it reaches the islands. Just when I thought this model would start abandoning development of this disturbance, it digs in .

[Miami Storm Tracker]

ok got you thanks, always learning something new in here.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks to be a classic Caribbean Cruiser on this run, my guess is it goes into Central America.

[Siker]

UKMET develops it for the first time. Hitting the water seems to have really done some favors for this wave lol...

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 12.5N 54.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.07.2017 108 12.5N 54.4W 1012 30
0000UTC 14.07.2017 120 13.1N 57.7W 1010 34
1200UTC 14.07.2017 132 13.8N 60.8W 1008 39
0000UTC 15.07.2017 144 14.5N 63.3W 1007 40

[TheStormExpert]

00z CMC is also still on board through 108hrs.

[RL3AO]

GFS-P has more dry air than the GFS and is probably the reason it doesn't intensify much more near the islands.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Storm going to assume the the Bermuda High must be very strong on this run if it's sending it all the way across basically due west.

[PTrackerLA]

168 hrs solid cat 2 well south of PR

[ThetaE]

Break in the ridge at 174. This is gonna pull north, I bet. It's what all the GEFS members (from past runs) who have achieved this strength in this region have been doing.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Is that a short term to the north then back west, or a very big weakness to allow it to escape.