ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

I am a little surprised the NHC made no mention again,I guess the their analysis is that conditions aren't promising.

[Aric Dunn]

I am a little surprised the NHC made no mention again,I guess the their analysis is that conditions aren't promising.

we can only assume they have more info than we do... lol

i mean normally for crap that is way way worse than this. they will give it a %0 chance.

[RL3AO]

I am a little surprised the NHC made no mention again,I guess the their analysis is that conditions aren't promising.

we can only assume they have more info than we do... lol

i mean normally for crap that is way way worse than this. they will give it a %0 chance.

I didn't even think of that. You'll see them mention an ex-TC with some convection and they'll just say 0% chance. We don't even get that. Oh well.

[Aric Dunn]

I am a little surprised the NHC made no mention again,I guess the their analysis is that conditions aren't promising.

we can only assume they have more info than we do... lol

i mean normally for crap that is way way worse than this. they will give it a %0 chance.

I didn't even think of that. You'll see them mention an ex-TC with some convection and they'll just say 0% chance. We don't even get that. Oh well.

yeah, its a little odd for sure..

[AtlanticWind]

A tropical wave, remnants of Tropical Depression Four, is over
the central Atlantic with its axis extending from 23N57W to
11N59W, moving west-northwest around 15-20 kt. The atmospheric
environment surrounding the wave is very moist as observed in TPW
loop series. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 20N-23N between 56W-60W. The active portion of the wave is
forecast to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands by Sunday
evening with possible brief gusty winds and squalls. It is later
forecast to approach the SE Bahamas on Monday.

From NHC

[Sciencerocks]

Don't know if it is at the surface or not but MLC/LLC has moved under the convection and this system appears to be having some redevelopment.

[Aric Dunn]

Don't know if it is at the surface or not but MLC/LLC has moved under the convection and this system appears to be having some redevelopment.

yeah, a couple of us have been watching it unfold all day.. its rather interesting...

[AtlanticWind]

A tropical wave, remnants of Tropical Depression Four, is over
the central Atlantic with its axis extending from 23N57W to
11N59W, moving west-northwest around 15-20 kt. The atmospheric
environment surrounding the wave is very moist as observed in TPW
loop series. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 20N-23N between 56W-60W. The active portion of the wave is
forecast to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands by Sunday
evening with possible brief gusty winds and squalls. It is later
forecast to approach the SE Bahamas on Monday.

From NHC

From the TWD ,You would think this would be enough for 10 percent chance in the next 5 days

[Aric Dunn]

nah...Dont think its should be mentioned.. only a convective burst the size of South Carolina with a well defined tropical wave and associated llc.. but hey who knows..

[WeatherHoon]

Maybe they want to wait a while to see if it maintains itself.

[Sciencerocks]

nah...Dont think its should be mentioned.. only a convective burst the size of South Carolina with a well defined tropical wave and associated llc.. but hey who knows..

Conditions are only going to get better for it as it moves out of the base of the Tutt ULL to its north. "Within my opinion at least" I'd say close to 40% for the next 72 hours. Models probably will come in stronger if this trend continues.

Gfs 200 milibars upper levels shows a "anti-cyclone" at 24-36 hours pushing the shear to around 23-25 north. So the more southward it remains the better.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=342

[StormTracker]

I just think they were so quick to label it a depression when they probably should have waited, just to see it dissipate and have to downgrade it to a remnant low, they don't want to jump the gun this time and say anything, especially without major model support, that may make their forecasting ability matters worse...

[StormTracker]

As it closes in on PR & DR, they're going to have to put out kind of statement.

[RL3AO]

The models say the vorticity/wave will wash out over the next day or two. Not one GFSE member is on board with a closed low. The models will very likely be correct, but my newly degreed eyes are intrigued this evening.

[Aric Dunn]

nah...Dont think its should be mentioned.. only a convective burst the size of South Carolina with a well defined tropical wave and associated llc.. but hey who knows..

Conditions are only going to get better for it as it moves out of the base of the Tutt ULL to its north. "Within my opinion at least" I'd say close to 40% for the next 72 hours. Models probably will come in stronger if this trend continues.

Gfs 200 milibars upper levels shows a "anti-cyclone" at 24-36 hours pushing the shear to around 23-25 north. So the more southward it remains the better.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=342

yeah.. I was just teasing lol

[Aric Dunn]

The models say the vorticity/wave will wash out over the next day or two. Not one GFSE member is on board with a closed low. The models will very likely be correct, but my newly degreed eyes are intrigued this evening.

it happens over and over.. when models are completely wrong initially due to data input.. they are only as good as the data that is incorporated.

[gatorcane]

If the convection blowup now is shear-induced, we would expect the convection to fizzle as it moves away from the TUTT. Pressures are no lower than 1016mb that I can see. Intriguing for sure but my guess is that by the morning EST convection will have fizzled. But you never know... Still think area warrants a mention by NHC as it is Bahamas and possibly Florida-bound with excellent upper-level winds and warm water to work with.

[boca]

Can the ULL be producing the uptick in convection and tomorrow just completely fall apart because it's losing the influence of the ULL?

[Aric Dunn]

If the convection blowup now is shear-induced, we would expect the convection to fizzle as it moves away from the TUTT. Pressures are no lower than 1016mb that I can see. Intriguing for sure but my guess is that by the morning EST convection will have fizzled. But you never know... Still think area warrants a mention by NHC as it is Bahamas and possibly Florida-bound with excellent upper-level winds to work with.

agreed. though if there surface circ becomes well defined and convergence continues it wont need the upper low to produce convection. I think thats what we are all including the NHC is waiting on. can it maintain convection.

[Sciencerocks]

Can the ULL be producing the uptick in convection and tomorrow just completely fall apart because it's losing the influence of the ULL?

It's possible,but convection over that LLC means more lower level convergence and if it lasts long enough lower pressure. We will have to see of course.

Stronger circulation with more convergence could be enough to tip the balance.