Larry On "Larry"

[capecodder]

I have never seen Larry Cosgrove get exited about a "potential" TC.
Fromhis newslwtter today.
"Again with a consistent solution of turning the low northeastward into the Gulf of Mexico at the 144 hour time frame, the Global equation uses a shortwave from the Intermountain Region as a "kicker", converts the disturbance into a raging Hurricane "Larry", and rips the entire East Coast from FL into New England with what appears to be a devastating storm! Now I will admit the "outlier" factor is causing me to take a reluctant attitude about the evolution of any tropical cyclone under a complicated Rex signature (with low-slung semizonal flow yielding to a deep coastal low pressure center). But the teleconnections fit, as does the fact that this is the third day in a row where the Canadian model has presented this scenario.
Keep your eyes on the Bay of Campeche"

[Steve H.]

What ????? Is he suggesting that this 'thing' will develop in the BOC and head NE'ward?? What's the rest of his discussion. Is Bastardi suffering from similar dilusions?? Though I have to admit, convection is getting deep this morning.

[vbhoutex]

Yikes!! Sounds like another Opal in the making with the east coast added!! I hope this is wrong!!! Now that my internet appears to have stabilized after 2 days of off and on availability, maybe I will have a chance to check it all out and make some decisions about what I see. At least now we have the floater on it.

[wxman57]

He must be looking at another version of the Canadian model than I am. The 00Z Canadian basically shows a weak west Gulf low along the cold front eventually moving north toward the upper TX/LA coasts in 144hrs. Of course, you also have to ignore the fact that the Canadian model has been wrong about this system from day one.

The disturbance is basically a frontal low now. As such, it is transforming into a hybrid or even cold-core system, fed by CAA. Another cold front moves into the Gulf late Wednesday, reinforcing the CAA into the SW Gulf. So the disturbance wil likely persist as a frontal low for 2-3 days. Now it MAY have the potential to develop into a TC beyond Friday, once the CAA quits. But saying it's going to become a powerful hurricane and rake the entire east U.S. coast is going so far out on a limb that he's left the tree....

[Anonymous]

The Canadian curves the system NE in the central Gulf and into Florida. The model then takes it straight up the East Coast. Two straight model runs have shown a FL landfall. Still pretty much worthless this far out though.

[Aquawind]

Lotsa cool dry air in place over the entire eastern half of the US ATM.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/sfc_tpa.gif

We are talking cold n dry..


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/sfc_pir.gif


Things will have to change radically for a true tropical system to rip anybody..hybrid chances pretty good..imho

[JCT777]

LC always sees a major storm for the east. What else is new?

[Steve H.]

Well hold on now. Seems to be a storm gathering in the S Central GOM. Check out visible loops. Looking at the WV, all of the GOM shows ample moisture this morning, with dryer air confined to the northern gulf states. Also, seems that the front is pulling back a bit to the north and west, probably in the return flow following the first front. Currently a lot of convection firing in the South-Central and SW GOM. Let's watch how this progresses today, if it trends toward evolving into an organized circulation. Looks to be doing that now :o

[GulfBreezer]

Yikes!! Sounds like another Opal in the making with the east coast added!! I hope this is wrong!!! Now that my internet appears to have stabilized after 2 days of off and on availability, maybe I will have a chance to check it all out and make some decisions about what I see. At least now we have the floater on it.

VB, I love ya buddy but you have to quit saying that "O" word!! :o

[Derecho]

Larry Cosgrove is a horrible tropical forecaster (one of his problems is he doesn't really spend enough time carefully examining the tropics) and an embarassing hugger of the Canadian model, the WORST tropical global model...

The Canadian had an outlier Isabel landfall in NY/NJ for many runs, and of course, Cosgrove went with it and blew his forecast.

And he's previously followed the Canadian for a litany of Gulf storms and made embarassing forecasts.

The Canadian is literally the only model to show Isabel becoming an actual tropical system and moving NE. The Canadian is the lowest-resolution global, and if it's by itself, and it's a 7-day forecast, it's basically for entertainment purposes only.

In fact, when the Canadian came out last night, I was chatting privately with a friend and joked about how I was sure that Cosgrove would have an orgasm over it tomorrow; turned out I was correct.

[JCT777]

In fact, when the Canadian came out last night, I was chatting privately with a friend and joked about how I was sure that Cosgrove would have an orgasm over it tomorrow; turned out I was correct.

LOL!! So true.

[ColdFront77]

He must be looking at another version of the Canadian model than I am. The 00Z Canadian basically shows a weak west Gulf low along the cold front eventually moving north toward the upper TX/LA coasts in 144hrs. Of course, you also have to ignore the fact that the Canadian model has been wrong about this system from day one.

Why would the Canadian model being wrong about this system from day one to now be guaranteed to continue throughout the rest of the convection areas in the Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche's existence?

[wxman57]

Why would the Canadian model being wrong about this system from day one to now be guaranteed to continue throughout the rest of the convection areas in the Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche's existence?

I can't understand that sentence...

[Steve H.]

Yeah CF, please clarify. Are you trying to say that they laughed at the Canadian earlier this week, and now they're (LC) using it as a basis for a scenario?

[ColdFront77]

Sorry. I seem to, if not literally to be the only one posting messages that don't make sense... :? Combinations for typos and thought process coming out confusing happen to us all, I hope. I can't be the only one.

The Canadian model has been correct since day one with the area of convection in the Gulf of Mexico... that doesn't mean it will continue.

[obxhurricane]

Larry Cosgrove is a horrible tropical forecaster (one of his problems is he doesn't really spend enough time carefully examining the tropics) and an embarassing hugger of the Canadian model, the WORST tropical global model...

The Canadian had an outlier Isabel landfall in NY/NJ for many runs, and of course, Cosgrove went with it and blew his forecast.

And he's previously followed the Canadian for a litany of Gulf storms and made embarassing forecasts.

The Canadian is literally the only model to show Isabel becoming an actual tropical system and moving NE. The Canadian is the lowest-resolution global, and if it's by itself, and it's a 7-day forecast, it's basically for entertainment purposes only.

In fact, when the Canadian came out last night, I was chatting privately with a friend and joked about how I was sure that Cosgrove would have an orgasm over it tomorrow; turned out I was correct.

Just to clarify, is it Isabel, or is it potentially Larry?

BTW: For my money, the EC is the worst tropical model...but that's another story.

A couple of points here.

1: If a system does develop in the GOM or BOC, it is likely to drifly slowly for several days and then head NE or ENE thereafter given what we know today about the medium range. Thus...it is POSSIBLE that the Canadian is on to something.

2: The GFS doesn't really show a TC developing...but rather it sends out several waves along the front...which at this time seems like the most plausible solution. However...it should be noted that the GFS has done a poor job of "picking up" systems before they develop or in their early stages of development this season, but once that model has picked up on a system it has done a superb job this season.

3: As we all know, it is foolish to speculate on the future movement of something that isn't there yet. Let's see it develop first.

Have a good night.

P.S. You guys should batten down in Florida. Just kidding.

[Colin]

LC always sees a major storm for the east. What else is new?

You're exactly right...I haven't seen ONE newsletter that didn't have the potential of an East Coast Storm.

[Stormsfury]

Larry Cosgrove is a horrible tropical forecaster (one of his problems is he doesn't really spend enough time carefully examining the tropics) and an embarassing hugger of the Canadian model, the WORST tropical global model...

The Canadian had an outlier Isabel landfall in NY/NJ for many runs, and of course, Cosgrove went with it and blew his forecast.

And he's previously followed the Canadian for a litany of Gulf storms and made embarassing forecasts.

The Canadian is literally the only model to show Isabel becoming an actual tropical system and moving NE. The Canadian is the lowest-resolution global, and if it's by itself, and it's a 7-day forecast, it's basically for entertainment purposes only.

In fact, when the Canadian came out last night, I was chatting privately with a friend and joked about how I was sure that Cosgrove would have an orgasm over it tomorrow; turned out I was correct.

Just to clarify, is it Isabel, or is it potentially Larry?

BTW: For my money, the EC is the worst tropical model...but that's another story.

A couple of points here.

1: If a system does develop in the GOM or BOC, it is likely to drifly slowly for several days and then head NE or ENE thereafter given what we know today about the medium range. Thus...it is POSSIBLE that the Canadian is on to something.

2: The GFS doesn't really show a TC developing...but rather it sends out several waves along the front...which at this time seems like the most plausible solution. However...it should be noted that the GFS has done a poor job of "picking up" systems before they develop or in their early stages of development this season, but once that model has picked up on a system it has done a superb job this season.

3: As we all know, it is foolish to speculate on the future movement of something that isn't there yet. Let's see it develop first.

Have a good night.

P.S. You guys should batten down in Florida. Just kidding.

I absolutely disagree in regards to the EURO being the worse tropical model. The Canadian has a documented warm-bias and as Derecho stated is run on the lowest resolution for a global. Also, it's generally bad with spawning phantom TC's. Now granted, the CMC was excellent in correctly developing Isabel into a powerhouse and large system while other models were developing Isabel in vorticity pieces (the GFS had Isabel as 3 vorticity maximas swirling about a common point). However, the EURO was right there with the CMC, beautifully I might add.

Granted, the EURO doesn't see all of the potential TC's, but at the same time, it doesn't spawn phantom TC's. When the EC latches onto a TC formation, especially this year, it's verified.

Which model first correctly saw Isabel's path into NC/VA? EURO. The rest of the models followed. EURO also perfectly foresaw Bill's landfall point 5 days before it even came together (which was a HUGE basis on my point of landfall in regards to Bill verifying so closely).

EURO saw Floyd back in 1999's landfall point and it's weakening perfectly 7 days away while other models had Floyd slamming into Florida. (Chime in DT, please with this information). EURO did extremely well with Fabian slamming into Bermuda as well while the CMC was 7º WEST of the landfall point (continued to indicate a Cape Cod threat - and in which I know you didn't follow).

SF

[obxhurricane]

Good points all around SF, and I admit the EC has performed better this season than in past years. However, on the whole the EC remains a model with a poor track record with regards to Tropical cyclones...IMO.
FWIW...I really don't take much stock in either model...except to compare their overall longwave projections with other guidance.

Which model first correctly saw Isabel's path into NC/VA? EURO.

I'm not so sure that is entirely correct. IIRC...the EC was consistent for many days that Isabel would make landfall near the DELMARVA. It was 3 or 4 days out before it shifted south and west to near Cape Lookout...again...IIRC. Meanwhile...during the time frame of 5-7 days out we had the UK and GFS and NGP converging on the southern Outer Banks(the UK was shifting east from it's earlier runs of a SC hit...while the GFS was shifting West from the consensu((EC, GFS, CANADIAN, GFDL)) DELMARVA strike.

The GFDL, UK, GFS, NGP all showed the correct landfall of Isabel well before the EC. Again...if I recall correctly. I must admit it's all mostly a blur at this point.

[Stormsfury]

Good points all around SF, and I admit the EC has performed better this season than in past years. However, on the whole the EC remains a model with a poor track record with regards to Tropical cyclones...IMO.
FWIW...I really don't take much stock in either model...except to compare their overall longwave projections with other guidance.

In fairness to the EC, it isn't exactly designed for tropical cyclones, but handling the overall sypotnic pattern, in which is the best MR forecast model, IMHO. And FWIW, I like to get a general consensus of the globals, tropicals, and several ensembles as well.

I'm not so sure that is entirely correct. IIRC...the EC was consistent for many days that Isabel would make landfall near the DELMARVA. It was 3 or 4 days out before it shifted south and west to near Cape Lookout...again...IIRC. Meanwhile...during the time frame of 5-7 days out we had the UK and GFS and NGP converging on the southern Outer Banks(the UK was shifting east from it's earlier runs of a SC hit...while the GFS was shifting West from the consensu((EC, GFS, CANADIAN, GFDL)) DELMARVA strike.

The GFDL, UK, GFS, NGP all showed the correct landfall of Isabel well before the EC. Again...if I recall correctly. I must admit it's all mostly a blur at this point.

Remember in the long range when all the models showed a Florida strike? The EURO was the first model to jump totally away from that consensus and call for Isabel to be a MA strike. The others followed suit. The EURO recognized that the weakness in the ridge left in the wake of Henri's departure into North Carolina, opened up the opportunity for Isabel to go through.

I remember that day when all of the consensus shifted eastward except NGP because only the NGP was initialized with the missing 12z Bermuda Observations. But honestly, I've never seen such a strong consensus with all of the models so far out and the model guidance was absolutely superb in regards to Isabel, IMHO.

SF

BTW, how did you fare through Isabel? I hope it wasn't too bad for you.