ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

If I were NHC I would be mentioning this area in the 8pm outlook. The remnant LLC moved right under that convection.

[Aric Dunn]

just extrapolated the last couple images before sunset and when the convection started firing around it.. it is smack dab right under the white overshooting tops.

[AtlanticWind]

Not even a 10% mention in the TWO. I'm not doubting NHC, but the environment looks quite impressive in about 36 hours.

well at the 2pm the convection was still disorganized and the llc was exposed. that by far not the case now.. lol so maybe the 8pm TWO will say something.

The only reason the NHC may not mention is the lack of model support for regeneration. A little surprised that the models
are not showing anything.

[Aric Dunn]

Not even a 10% mention in the TWO. I'm not doubting NHC, but the environment looks quite impressive in about 36 hours.

well at the 2pm the convection was still disorganized and the llc was exposed. that by far not the case now.. lol so maybe the 8pm TWO will say something.

The only reason the NHC may not mention is the lack of model support for regeneration. A little surprised that the models
are not showing anything.

true.

though the model are only as good as the data inputed into them..

[GCANE]

This may just nail it.

Off-the scale rain rate less than 1.5 hours ago.

[RL3AO]

well at the 2pm the convection was still disorganized and the llc was exposed. that by far not the case now.. lol so maybe the 8pm TWO will say something.

The only reason the NHC may not mention is the lack of model support for regeneration. A little surprised that the models
are not showing anything.

true.

though the model are only as good as the data inputed into them..

I'm looking a bit closer at the GFS trying to find some negatives. Obviously, the dry air is an issue, but it doesn't look too bad. Maybe some upper-level convergence. However, if the models are underplaying organization now, it would make the upper-air forecasts for Tuesday a lot less useful.

[Aric Dunn]

The only reason the NHC may not mention is the lack of model support for regeneration. A little surprised that the models
are not showing anything.

true.

though the model are only as good as the data inputed into them..

I'm looking a bit closer at the GFS trying to find some negatives. Obviously, the dry air is an issue, but it doesn't look too bad. Maybe some upper-level convergence. However, if the models are underplaying organization now, it would make the upper-air forecasts for Tuesday a lot less useful.

True. also if the system was initilized with no closed low ( which it clearly has had for days) then the models would be following an open wave under marginal environment. vs what is actually happening. also could be that the current dry air/sal has been over done its clearly thinning out and narrowing to its east,... only time will tell.

I wish someone would make a mock model that anyone could change the small variables just to see what would happen. would be fun to play around with.

[RL3AO]

I wish someone would make a mock model that anyone could change the small variables just to see what would happen. would be fun to play around with.

If you had knowledge with running WRF and a decent cluster to run it on...

[AtlanticWind]

true.

though the model are only as good as the data inputed into them..

I'm looking a bit closer at the GFS trying to find some negatives. Obviously, the dry air is an issue, but it doesn't look too bad. Maybe some upper-level convergence. However, if the models are underplaying organization now, it would make the upper-air forecasts for Tuesday a lot less useful.

True. also if the system was initilized with no closed low ( which it clearly has had for days) then the models would be following an open wave under marginal environment. vs what is actually happening. also could be that the current dry air/sal has been over done its clearly thinning out and narrowing to its east,... only time will tell.

I wish someone would make a mock model that anyone could change the small variables just to see what would happen. would be fun to play around with.

Oh I thought they did CMC!

[Nimbus]

I haven't seen surface pressures below about 1016 so it might take a while to deepen even under favorable conditions for development. I suppose the little eddy that keeps exposing itself could have a decent pressure gradient over a very small area but why the poof during the day then?

[AtlanticWind]

I haven't seen surface pressures below about 1016 so it might take a while to deepen even under favorable conditions for development. I suppose the little eddy that keeps exposing itself could have a decent pressure gradient over a very small area but why the poof during the day then?

Maybe if can maintain convection we could see a pressure drop soon.

[Aric Dunn]

I wish someone would make a mock model that anyone could change the small variables just to see what would happen. would be fun to play around with.

If you had knowledge with running WRF and a decent cluster to run it on...

yeah, though I meant the gfs. just a simple platform that used all current data though you were just able to change a few parameters.

[AtlanticWind]

I wish someone would make a mock model that anyone could change the small variables just to see what would happen. would be fun to play around with.

If you had knowledge with running WRF and a decent cluster to run it on...

yeah, though I meant the gfs. just a simple platform that used all current data though you were just able to change a few parameters.

Not an expert but I thought that what the ensembles did?

[Aric Dunn]

its being vented very well right now. .. there is a lot of low level moisture and as long as there is convergence at the surface with that kind of divergence convection will maintain and give a chance for the circ to become better established throughout the column.

[Aric Dunn]

If you had knowledge with running WRF and a decent cluster to run it on...

yeah, though I meant the gfs. just a simple platform that used all current data though you were just able to change a few parameters.

Not an expert but I thought that what the ensembles did?

yes.. but I want to play around with it.. something we all could.

[AtlanticWind]

Nothing on 8pm nhc update

[gatorcane]

Also pretty impressive for DMIN. What will DMAX bring?

[AtlanticWind]

yeah, though I meant the gfs. just a simple platform that used all current data though you were just able to change a few parameters.

Not an expert but I thought that what the ensembles did?

yes.. but I want to play around with it.. something we all could.

Well we would make conditions so good we would have cat 5 hurricanes running around everywhere

[Aric Dunn]

Not an expert but I thought that what the ensembles did?

yes.. but I want to play around with it.. something we all could.

Well we would make conditions so good we would have cat 5 hurricanes running around everywhere

haha.. well I was thinking more along the lines of subtle changes like in the present case. introduce a closed surface circ see what happens.

[GCANE]

Bouy 41044 just north of the MCV.