ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

I see a small circulation that just tucked under the new convection.

[Aric Dunn]

its getting pulled a little towards all the recent convection firing north of it . wonder once it gets closer to that if we see even more increase in convection near the center.

[GCANE]

Its moving into the SW Flank of the ULL, "the classic" position for TC formation.
Also moving into 2700 CAPE air per latest GFS Sounding.
Shear is 35 Knots surface to 300mb.
As it pulls away from the ULL, the higher level winds will disspate, relaxing the shear.
Air is plenty juiced for vortical hot towers to fire off.
Looking for two or three to simulateously fire to couple the mid-layer vort to the surface.
Could come tonight or more likely late Sunday.

[GCANE]

GFS forecasted sounding tomorrow night just west of the wave axis / CoC.
CAPE nearly 3000.
Just about mimal shear to 300mb. No shear to 500mb.
A bit dry thru mid-levels, but lapse rate good thru the boundary layer.
700-400hPa RH really picks up when it gets closer to the Gulf Stream.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS forecasted sounding tomorrow night just west of the wave axis / CoC.
CAPE nearly 3000.
Just about mimal shear to 300mb. No shear to 500mb.
A bit dry thru mid-levels, but lapse rate good thru the boundary layer.
700-400hPa RH really picks up when it gets closer to the Gulf Stream.

yeah, it can over come some of the dry air if there is enough surface convergence a low level moisture. chances are still low to moderate. definitely needs to be watched still

[GCANE]

GFS forecasted sounding tomorrow night just west of the wave axis / CoC.
CAPE nearly 3000.
Just about mimal shear to 300mb. No shear to 500mb.
A bit dry thru mid-levels, but lapse rate good thru the boundary layer.
700-400hPa RH really picks up when it gets closer to the Gulf Stream.

yeah, it can over come some of the dry air if there is enough surface convergence a low level moisture. chances are still low to moderate. definitely needs to be watched still

I am going to be watching if any afternoon pop ups fire over PR or DR and debris moves north into this area.
That would moisten the mid-layer.
Models are notoriously bad for forecasting this.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS forecasted sounding tomorrow night just west of the wave axis / CoC.
CAPE nearly 3000.
Just about mimal shear to 300mb. No shear to 500mb.
A bit dry thru mid-levels, but lapse rate good thru the boundary layer.
700-400hPa RH really picks up when it gets closer to the Gulf Stream.

yeah, it can over come some of the dry air if there is enough surface convergence a low level moisture. chances are still low to moderate. definitely needs to be watched still

I am going to be watching if any afternoon pop ups fire over PR or DR and debris moves north into this area.
That would moisten the mid-layer.
Models are notoriously bad for forecasting this.

there is plenty of moisture streaming north out of the carrib from the tutt over the western carrib. I dont think we have an issue with moisture out ahead of it. its more whats behind it and being pulled in from the SAL. that needs to keep thinning out then it would have a better chance. .

[Aric Dunn]

last few images.. showing inflow increasing on the SE side again ( some convection forming along a proto feeder band too) and convection starting to fire in all quads around the llc as its being pulled into that deep convection that continues to expand.

nothing crazy yet but its not dead..

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html

[GCANE]

Nice little pressure drop from Barbuda

Seeing a small flare deep down the wave axis just east of Barbuda - could be nothing.

[GCANE]

last few images.. showing inflow increasing on the SE side again ( some convection forming along a proto feeder band too) and convection starting to fire in all quads around the llc as its being pulled into that deep convection that continues to expand.

nothing crazy yet but its not dead..

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html

A lot of overshooting tops.
The vampire could be about to wake up again.

[Aric Dunn]

last few images.. showing inflow increasing on the SE side again ( some convection forming along a proto feeder band too) and convection starting to fire in all quads around the llc as its being pulled into that deep convection that continues to expand.

nothing crazy yet but its not dead..

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html

A lot of overshooting tops.
The vampire could be about to wake up again.

lol yep.. convection expanding significantly pretty much everywhere. less popcorn type and more sustained.

[GCANE]

Seems like the ULL is already beginning to ventilate it.
Its also pushing in a nice feed of mid-level moisture from the north into it.

[Aric Dunn]

there is a ship right near the center.. like the norther quad.. very close to it..

[Aric Dunn]

circ is nearly embedded within the deep convection and some very strong convection building in association with the llc as it has migrated closer... seeing more easterly moving clouds in the low levels as well now. convergence is increasing at least for the time being. just have to wait and see if the SAL stays out otherwise the convection will likely collapse again.

medium zoom
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html

[GCANE]

6.9 micro-meter gives a nice view of mid-level moisture.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

Can clearly see the ULL about to push a nice feed of moisture into it from the north.
Can also see multi-cumulus firing off in the MCVand dancing around each other as depicted by the yellow pixels.
Very likely that will push the vort down to the surface due to the surface helicity of the cells.
Next step would be a high-rain rate cell to fire for a few hours to create a mid-level warm core.
With it appoaching night and the upper-troposphere cooling off, it is likely that could happen.

[Aric Dunn]

6.9 micro-meter gives a nice view of mid-level moisture.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

Can clearly see the ULL about to push a nice feed of moisture into it from the north.
Can also see multi-cumulus firing off in the MCVand dancing around each other as depicted by the yellow pixels.
Very likely that will push the vort down to the surface due to the surface helicity of the cells.
Next step would be a high-rain rate cell to fire for a few hours to create a mid-level warm core.
With it appoaching night and the upper-troposphere cooling off, it is likely that could happen.

yeah pretty sure the convection firing right now right over the center all around it would be sufficient if they can maintain ..its looking better than it ever really did before. lol talk about some overshooting tops.

[GCANE]

Nice symmetric radial outflow depicted by the 9.6 um ozone band showing the atmosphere near the tropopause ~400hPa.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[RL3AO]

Not even a 10% mention in the TWO. I'm not doubting NHC, but the environment looks quite impressive in about 36 hours.

[GCANE]

Nice view of the overshooting tops at sunset.

[Aric Dunn]

Not even a 10% mention in the TWO. I'm not doubting NHC, but the environment looks quite impressive in about 36 hours.

well at the 2pm the convection was still disorganized and the llc was exposed. that by far not the case now.. lol so maybe the 8pm TWO will say something.