Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[MississippiWx]

Umm, where they not just forecasting a favorable environment like not even 24 hours ago?

Yeah I'm pretty sure they were so I don't know what is up. Either we're going crazy or the models are.

Here's yesterday. Nothing changed in the EPS. Favorable first half of July. Maybe a less favorable 2nd half.

https://i.imgur.com/z0fw55s.jpg

According to that, nothing but anomalous sinking air is forecast across the MDR through its forecast period.

[RL3AO]

According to that, nothing but anomalous sinking air is forecast across the MDR through its forecast period.

Yeah but the period before July 15th combined with a favorable Kelvin wave this week is what may give the wave off Africa the boost it needs to develop. Two MDR systems in the first half of July is extremely active. I'm not sure if people were expecting Dennis and Emily or what.

[cycloneye]

Splashing into the water.

[TheStormExpert]

According to that, nothing but anomalous sinking air is forecast across the MDR through its forecast period.

Yeah but the period before July 15th combined with a favorable Kelvin wave this week is what may give the wave off Africa the boost it needs to develop. Two MDR systems in the first half of July is extremely active. I'm not sure if people were expecting Dennis and Emily or what.

I know seeing two back-to-back high-end majors in July is rare but we have had several hurricanes (including majors) in the month of July. The most recent examples between 2005 and now would be Major Hurricane Bertha(2008), and Hurricane Arthur(2014).

[MississippiWx]

According to that, nothing but anomalous sinking air is forecast across the MDR through its forecast period.

Yeah but the period before July 15th combined with a favorable Kelvin wave this week is what may give the wave off Africa the boost it needs to develop. Two MDR systems in the first half of July is extremely active. I'm not sure if people were expecting Dennis and Emily or what.

True. It doesn't have to be super favorable across the entire MDR when it comes to upward motion. If it's able to get enough spin going and stays South in the moisture belt close to the ITCz it might can pull it off. Speaking of Dennis and Emily, I'd like to see what the conditions were before they developed.

I don't think there is any doubt that the MDR is overall much more favorable for development this season than in recent years.

[abajan]

According to that, nothing but anomalous sinking air is forecast across the MDR through its forecast period.

Yeah but the period before July 15th combined with a favorable Kelvin wave this week is what may give the wave off Africa the boost it needs to develop. Two MDR systems in the first half of July is extremely active. I'm not sure if people were expecting Dennis and Emily or what.

True. It doesn't have to be super favorable across the entire MDR when it comes to upward motion. If it's able to get enough spin going and stays South in the moisture belt close to the ITCz it might can pull it off. Speaking of Dennis and Emily, I'd like to see what the conditions were before they developed.

I don't think there is any doubt that the MDR is overall much more favorable for development this season than in recent years.

Isn't that Don and Emily? Or are you guys talking about a different year?

[RL3AO]

Isn't that Don and Emily? Or are you guys talking about a different year?

Dennis was retired in 2005 and replaced with Don.

[abajan]

Isn't that Don and Emily? Or are you guys talking about a different year?

Dennis was retired in 2005 and replaced with Don.

Correct. That's why people would have been expecting Don and Emily this year, instead of Dennis and Emily, if you were referring to this year.

[RL3AO]

Correct. That's why people would have been expecting Don and Emily this year, instead of Dennis and Emily, if you were referring to this year.

Oh sorry. I meant if people were expecting a period like 2005 with Dennis and Emily. A cat 4 and 5 hurricanes in July.

[abajan]

Man, when it comes to these models, what a difference a day makes! But let's see what they predict tomorrow.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS trending about the same as the 12z, slightly further north if anything.

[ROCK]

EURO dropped it a few runs ago and most of the globals have followed. Even the mighty 12Z CMC now shows limited development. If it can hang on until the carb then maybe. Need more model runs...

[Ivanhater]

18z gfs strengthening and heading south of Hispaniola...very small system this run...just a thought..if it is this small..Euro has had trouble seeing them

[ROCK]

18z gfs strengthening and heading south of Hispaniola...very small system this run...just a thought..if it is this small..Euro has had trouble seeing them

agree...EURO jumped early on then backed way off almost instantly. I don't like when it goes from one extreme to the next like that...

[Ivanhater]

Passing just south of Jamaica at 216

[Kingarabian]

Correcting towards the Euro and GFS Parallel's western track.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS weakening the storm in the western caribbean...

[Ivanhater]

18z gfs strengthening and heading south of Hispaniola...very small system this run...just a thought..if it is this small..Euro has had trouble seeing them

agree...EURO jumped early on then backed way off almost instantly. I don't like when it goes from one extreme to the next like that...

yeah rock...extremely small this run..could cause global models havoc

[Ivanhater]

At 228 ..wnw heading passing Jamaica..very small

[Ivanhater]

Washing out over nw tip of Yucatan