ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

The 0zGFS seems to be showing this as a trackable entity and possibly the start of regeneration at 60hrs and based on the energy this thing still seems to have, also seems to have convection near or over the supposed center, this is definitely not dead and seems to be coming back to life so I wouldn't stop watching this as by the time it gets to 70w it could be something that could be a tropical cyclone by then

Good observations! I agree the remnants of TD 4 needs continued monitoring going into next week.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is showing a closed isobar near Key West at 132hrs so maybe the start of regeneration who knows

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

T 3.8... TS
UKMET

[Aric Dunn]

its tricky if it would be a new invest or not because it is merging with another pouch/vorticity area and could lose its identity. however if the current circulation can be tracked and it regenerates that it would be TD4 again.

[RL3AO]

NHC thinks it's dead for good. Still no TWO mention.

[Nimbus]

The shear out ahead of it was forecast to blow whatever remained apart.
The TUTT is rolling N across 20N and the 94l remnants will reach better conditions under the ridging that follows eventually.
Don't know if the NHC is going to do much with it unless it clearly survives the short term shear which is currently fanning up convection over a center.

[tropicwatch]

Still appears to have a weak circulation.

[Ntxw]

Not looking that great today

[Hurricaneman]

It's done, on to the next one

[Aric Dunn]

Still has a circ. its the tropics.... dont count anything out until its inland.. still needs to be watched near the bahamas.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF has a better-defined low-level vort crossing South Florida than previous runs:

[gatorcane]

Upper-level winds looks very favorable as it approaches the Bahamas. Dry air must be the reason why the models are not regenerating it. I do notice the ECMWF is showing a better vort structure as it crosses South Florida 6 days from now. Still bears watching given the area it is heading into.

[Aric Dunn]

Upper-level winds looks very favorable as it approaches the Bahamas. Dry air must be the reason why the models are not regenerating it. I do notice the ECMWF is showing a better vort structure as it crosses South Florida 6 days from now. Still bears watching given the area it is heading into.

yeah, everything but the dry air is quite favorable .. only time will tell. looking at satellite clearly more convection is building a sign of a more moist environment. even convection firing right around the llc right now.

[NDG]

Yeap, 12z Euro shows we need to keep an eye on the remnants of TD 4 as it reaches The Bahamas, FL into the GOM.

[gatorcane]

Upper-level winds looks very favorable as it approaches the Bahamas. Dry air must be the reason why the models are not regenerating it. I do notice the ECMWF is showing a better vort structure as it crosses South Florida 6 days from now. Still bears watching given the area it is heading into.

yeah, everything but the dry air is quite favorable .. only time will tell. looking at satellite clearly more convection is building a sign of a more moist environment. even convection firing right around the llc right now.

Yeah and the LLC is heading into the new convection that has fired to the NW. Shear from the ULL to the NNE could be helping this convection fire. Think NHC should at least be mentioning this area in their outlook

[Aric Dunn]

about to move into a very low shear environment. with only moderate upper divergence once it pasts 65 west. but if low level convergence continues and the SAL continues to be thinned out then it definitely needs to be watched.

[Aric Dunn]

Still in a very healthy moisture pouch in the low to mid levels. just needs to get that sal filtered out.. easier said than done..

[MississippiWx]

Still has a vigorous little vort max. A small thunderstorm just developed over it, in fact. Can't say it's over with these things until they stop spinning.

[wxman57]

I don't see any circulation. Time to look east for the next possible threat.

[Aric Dunn]

I don't see any circulation. Time to look east for the next possible threat.

come on wxman57 I know you aging a little but your not that blind