Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles in the long-range at 240 hours:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The GFS ensemble support still gives me pause about this situation -- wasn't nearly this strong for 04L, IIRC.

[WeatherHoon]

To me, this wave looks to have a better shot than 94L/TD4. We'll have to wait and see. Don't think it's time to write it off so soon when it's barely moved off of Africa. Wait and see what it does and what conditions will be like as it traverses through the Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/883747758691274753

[weathaguyry]

Contrary to the OP GFS bringing a TS into Central America, the GFS ensembles bring a respectable Hurricane off the coast of Florida, at around 300 hours

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian showing this as a tropical storm moving west through the Caribbean. In Western Caribbean by 240 hours

[Alyono]

what about this wave qualifies it to be called a strong tropical wave? This is just an ordinary wave. One of about 60 we see each year

[Weather150]

Hello all, new member here. I believe this wave is not going to really get going much until much closer to the Lesser Antilles like at around 50-55W, the lastest GFS ensembles were still decently strong with it despite how the 12z GFS operational was weaker.

[WeatherHoon]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/883747758691274753

It was only yesterday when it was said that it would be more favorable in the middle of the month. Are these flip-flops common when predicting Kelvin/MJO phases?

[Weather150]

The 12z Euro is once again not excited about the wave like in its 00z run, nothing much through 144 hours. Maybe this could be one of those situations where the Euro eventually follows the GFS later on and begins to show something. The GFS has been very consistent with the 12z run being the 10th time it was showing something potent headed for the Lesser Antilles.

[Weather150]

The wave looking very robust with high thunderstorm cloud tops.

[cycloneye]

Loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[tarheelprogrammer]

Only the GFS OP and CMC are showing this developing correct?

[MississippiWx]

Only the GFS OP and CMC are showing this developing correct?

GFS ensembles are bullish too.

The Euro and its ensembles say nada. Considering the GFS just whiffed on TD4 (strengthened it way too much), it's difficult to not side with the Euro, for now.

Taking models out of the equation, the environment just isn't very supportive for convective growth. The environmental MSLP is forecast to be above normal across the MDR for the next 10 days. SAL/dry air and climatology also do not favor such a system. We shall see, but I think the GFS is trolling.

[TheStormExpert]

This is Déjà vu all over again just like with TD#4. Right now I'd personally give it a 20% chance of development in the Atlantic with a 50% chance chance in the East Pacific since everything seems to develop there if it can't in the Atlantic. So right now we have the Operational GFS and the CMC as the only two lone models that develop this and as of 12z they are rather weak and sending it straight into Central America.

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/883747758691274753

Umm, where they not just forecasting a favorable environment like not even 24 hours ago?

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/883747758691274753

Umm, where they not just forecasting a favorable environment like not even 24 hours ago?

Yeah I'm pretty sure they were so I don't know what is up. Either we're going crazy or the models are.

[RL3AO]

Umm, where they not just forecasting a favorable environment like not even 24 hours ago?

Favorable MJO + unfavorable Kelvin wave. I wouldn't read much into it yet. That's still a 2 to 3 week forecast.

[TheStormExpert]

Umm, where they not just forecasting a favorable environment like not even 24 hours ago?

Favorable MJO + unfavorable Kelvin wave. I wouldn't read much into it yet. That's still a 2 to 3 week forecast.

So overall I'd think that would neutral things out?

[RL3AO]

Umm, where they not just forecasting a favorable environment like not even 24 hours ago?

Yeah I'm pretty sure they were so I don't know what is up. Either we're going crazy or the models are.

Here's yesterday. Nothing changed in the EPS. Favorable first half of July. Maybe a less favorable 2nd half.