Statement from local met here in New Orleans

[bfez1]

It is becoming evident this afternoon that a broad low is developing in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. I fully expect a storm to form in the next day or two. Winds will increase offshore to near gale force by tomorrow night as the storm intensifies and a cold front moves down from the north.

It certainly looks like we could have an accelerating storm or hurricane toward the central Gulf Coast by Sunday. The westerlies are firmly entrenched over our area, so a sharp east turn toward Alabama or Florida would be likely.

If the storm is slower to move out of the Southwest Gulf of Mexico, then some concern for our area would grow for early next week. Stay tuned!

David Bernard
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

[wxman57]

While I agree that we certainly need to keep a close eye on this system, it's pretty apparent now that we have basically a "west Gulf low" along the cold front. Look at the air with dew points in the 40s streaming south off the LA coast toward the Bay of Campeche. Sure, it modifies by the time it reaches the low frontal wave/low, but it's not deep, moist tropical air. There's another blast of cold air coming tomorrow night. The cold air advection will continue up to Friday morning.

I agree, if there's still anything left down there after Friday, that we could see development of SOME kind. But if those 60-80 kt westerly winds are still there across the central and northern Gulf this weekend (as the GFS is forecasting), then we'd be looking at a highly-sheared TS or a hybrid-type storm and not a hurricane. How will a hurricane be able to maintain itself in such strong westerly upper-level wind flow?

Here's the latest Gulf analysis:

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/larry7.gif">

[wxman57]

Here's a new shot from 18Z with a ship report in the central BOC. Note the 20Kt NW wind, 1008.5 mb pressure, and 15 ft/13 sec period waves from 350 deg. The wind speed/direction is what would be expected southwest of a frontal low (NW wind vs. SW or W flow in SW quadrant of the low):

http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/larry8.gif

Now take a look at the 12Z Saturday 200MB wind flow:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096s.gif

And the 12Z Sunday 200MB flow:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120s.gif

That's 70-90 kt W-WNW flow across south LA for Sunday. The strong westerly winds extend well out into the Gulf. The environment doesn't look very favorable for tropical development.

[Stormcenter]

I guess time will tell if this affects anyone along the Gulf coast with anything besides some strong winds.

[ColdFront77]

As I mentioned yesterday evening, the stationary front over southern Florida is expected to dissipate in about 24 hours
as it moves as a warm front northward into central Florida. With that said, how can the surface low move northwest, nevermind
west; the boundary will really fall apart faster than it is expected to.

It looks to me that the low would have to move more eastward even moreso with the next trough/front coming down from
the north later this week.

[wxman57]

As I mentioned yesterday evening, the stationary front over southern Florida is expected to dissipate in about 24 hours
as it moves as a warm front northward into central Florida. With that said, how can the surface low move northwest, nevermind
west; the boundary will really fall apart faster than it is expected to.

It looks to me that the low would have to move more eastward even moreso with the next trough/front coming down from
the north later this week.

With CAA maintained through the next 48-60 hours, the frontal boundary won't likely dissipate. And the next round of cold air hits the Gulf tomorrow night, not later this week. That should keep the frontal wave/low in place, but a piece of the low may track off ENE-NE toward south Florida tomorrow night:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _024.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _036.shtml

[ColdFront77]

The forecast must have changed since yesterday and I have been looking at the surface front hardly moving to beginning
to move slowly northward into central Florida, before the expected washing out of the boundary.

[john186292]

FAKE METS, TOY METS....WATCH OUT
(But bernard is ok, has a degree, says a poster on down here.) (I am editing this in light of a poster who says ch 4 hires only those with a met degree. But this DOES still apply to many other stations that hire fake mets and present them so we assume they are qualified...most would assume the BS degree level exists for a tv met. NOT so., many times.)

"fake" or toy certificate given after short months...exact time unknown...of study, to tv folks. This practice was verified,as something tv stations do, by a pro met posting right on this board. He has a degree, but many tv mets do NOT.

Anyone know
ONE the mos of study for the toy AMS certificate?
TWO..was it NHC that gave breck the award?

[bfez1]

FAKE METS, TOY METS..STATEMENT IS FM ONE..TOSS IT, PROB.
The statement at the top is fm ch four, one of three locally new orleans, that hires mets with only the "fake" or toy certificate given after short months...exact time unknown...of study, to tv folks. So while i really like the guy, ...very refined... keep in mind he is not even a B.S. degree in met. Breck, on the only station with real mets, complains that all other stations hire the toy mets, only. Belson or Belsom is the corp owning ch four and pulling this trick on the public. Other orleanians, use bob breck for info. He got some award from the NHC about two or three yrs back, if i recall it right. Anyone know
ONE the mos of study for the toy AMS certificate?
TWO..was it NHC that gave breck the award?

That is your opinion only. Channel 4 is the number 1 station in New Orleans and David Bernard is not a toy meterologists.

[Stormcenter]

The guy is NOT a fake met. He more of a met than anyone on this board. Believe me he did his homework before making that statement. Now just because some of you don't agree with it well that's your problem not his.

[bfez1]

The guy is NOT a fake met. He more of a met than anyone on this board. Believe me he did his homework before making that statement. Now just because some of you don't agree with it well that's your problem not his.

Well said, stormcenter!

[mobile bay girl]

So... just trying to get a handle on what's the what here...

Due to another cold front moving down into the Gulf tomorrow, it doesn't appear (at this time) that we have to worry about anything really getting wound up with this area of concern. However, if it hangs around down there thru the weekend, then we may be looking at more favorable conditions for development. Is that right? :?

I'm very interested (even more than usual) because this weekend is Bayfest here and we got soaked at it last year. Everyone ended up sick with colds. I want no repeats! :o

And... hope south Florida gets relief from all their rain soon!

[Stormcenter]

Yes that's pretty much right Mobile bay girl. I'm not sure if conditions would much favorable but better than now.

[john186292]

I like bernard, as i said. I only point out that Breck said Ch four has no ...NO... mets with a BS degree. By that measure, bernard is not as qualified as one would wish. Sure, he may put in the effort and study in off hours, and may be actuallybetter than Breck. who knows? But if you want a BS degree met, he has not got it from my info source, Breck. Correct me if Breck is wrong. Again, I like bernard. Not meaning to slam him as a person.

[fla_girl]

HOOYA!!!!!

[john186292]

? pls define?

[fla_girl]

john if you are talking to me, i'm ready to a see a storm. the damn mesquitoes need to get blown away to somewhere else

[bfez1]

Breck slashes a lot of other mets in our area.
IMO---self praise stinks.
I'll watch channels 4 and 6 over channel 8 anytime.

[alicia-w]

OOPS! Looks like someone made a mistake:

John Gumm

WWL-TV Meteorologist
.....After high school, John attended and graduated from Valparaiso University in Indiana, where he earned a Bachelor of Science degree in meteorology.

Sure looks like he has a BS in meteorology to me..........
and the bio for the chief meteorologist looks like he as a BS too.

http://www.wwltv.com/anchors/carlbio.html

[fla_girl]

haha alicia, i thought we had the only Valparaiso!