Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[stormlover2013]

Don't buy a east coast storm this early

[Hurricane Andrew]

Don't buy a east coast storm this early

Arthur '14, Bertha '96, Cristobal '08, etc etc

[cycloneye]

Is over 200 hours so I am not running (Yet) to HD.

[Siker]

Appears the 12z Parallel Euro dropped it but full graphics are not actually out yet.

[gatorcane]

Is over 200 hours so I am not running (Yet) to HD.

http://i.imgur.com/Zj7Ive9.png

Luis, 18Z GFS ensemble mean has Haiti and Puerto Rico in the bullseye but it is long-range.

[RL3AO]

If you look at the 384 hour 500mb map, there a ridge building to the north of the hurricane. It even moved a little west of due north at the end of the run. Had that run about two more days, it may have hit the northeast US.

[Hurricane Andrew]

If you look at the 384 hour 500mb map, there a ridge building to the north of the hurricane. It even moved a little west of due north at the end of the run. Had that run about two more days, it may have hit the northeast US.

>thinks about hurricane storm standby
>no

[weathaguyry]

If you look at the 384 hour 500mb map, there a ridge building to the north of the hurricane. It even moved a little west of due north at the end of the run. Had that run about two more days, it may have hit the northeast US.

>thinks about hurricane storm standby
>no

Practically every single house in my town is in the process of being raised, at this point if there was another Hurricane, people would probably just abandon our town (South Shore- Back Bay Area, Long Island)

[abajan]

Do SSTs in the MDR and elsewhere seem warmer than usual to anyone else? Look at the amount of 29's and 30's!

[weathaguyry]

Do SSTs in the MDR and elsewhere seem warmer than usual to anyone else? Look at the amount of 29's and 30's!

They are!

[USTropics]

Do SSTs in the MDR and elsewhere seem warmer than usual to anyone else? Look at the amount of 29's and 30's!

You're certainly correct, they are anomalously warmer this season. It's also one of the leading reasons for the recent uptick in forecasted activity this season.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like at 0zGFS is showing what could be the start of possible organization at 48 hrs

[Alyono]

absolutely flying to the west this run

[Hurricaneman]

I have a feeling this is one of those systems where it will look like a million bucks on satellite but doesn't have a closed circulation due to its fast motion

[Hurricaneman]

GFS is faster and weaker this run which it would be moving that fast

[WeatherEmperor]

00z Gfs at 180hrs



00z Canadian at 180hrs




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[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has a major landfall on Hispaniola at hr 228, most likely will change

[Brent]

Hits Miami around 288 hours then spends 2 days riding up the Florida Peninsula on the 0z GFS

[bamajammer4eva]

When does the GFS Parallel go operational?? I think its more realistic in this case but its not official yet though I think by the time this reaches land or if not then at least Florida, this current operational GFS will disappear like a crazy dream so can we go ahead and scrap it??

[MetroMike]

The apparent faster movement on the GFS is after 240hrs the increment turns into 12hrs instead of 6hrs thereafter. I know it can be tricky to notice that change in there.