Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[tarheelprogrammer]

180 hours ignore after that

I second this. Two thumbs up. However, I would say 96 hours, and stop there.

But then we'd have nothing to talk about haha.

LOL oh I love the model speculation as well do not get me wrong. However, I think 94L or depression 4 taught us a valuable lesson I do believe. Now let the speculation continue. I will get the popcorn ready.

[gatorcane]

For those interested in seeing the long-range from 168+ hours of the 12Z GFS ensemble tracks animation. Comparing to 06Z GFS ensemble run, they are stronger and more east and east of the GFS operational. One ensemble looks to be similar to the 00Z ECMWF with a quicker recurve:

[chaser1]

Long range ensemble members appear to split into two camps as the potential cyclone approaches Cuba and the Bahamas. One resulting in a recurve and the other more ominous one suggesting a potential threat to Cuba, the Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf. Its interesting how TD 4 and possibly another tropical cyclone, are trying to develop in the face of what should be a general early July lull, a good deal of SAL, and more interestingly in the face of what should be suppressed atmospheric conditions through most of the Atlantic, as suggested by recent MJO data.

[WeatherEmperor]

Long range ensemble members appear to split into two camps as the potential cyclone approaches Cuba and the Bahamas. One resulting in a recurve and the other more ominous one suggesting a potential threat to Cuba, the Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf. Its interesting how TD 4 and possibly another tropical cyclone, are trying to develop in the face of what should be a general early July lull, a good deal of SAL, and more interestingly in the face of what should be suppressed atmospheric conditions through most of the Atlantic, as suggested by recent MJO data.

Also in the face of a potential El Nino. Head over to the ENSO Updates thread to see news of how region 3.4 has warmed to + 0.8 which is definitelt in Nino levels. If this system indeed forms it paints a very ominous picture for the rest of the season...


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[Kingarabian]

Looks like the 12z Euro Op is coming in weaker at 96hrs.

Edit: looks like it doesn't even have it anymore on the 850mb vort chart.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro coming in much weaker and much faster.

[tolakram]

12Z won't have it, similar to the previous 12Z run. I'd be willing to bet the next 0Z will show it again. I'm really curious why the two runs seem to behave this way.

[Kingarabian]

12Z won't have it, similar to the previous 12Z run. I'd be willing to bet the next 0Z will show it again. I'm really curious why the two runs seem to behave this way.

Previous 12z run at least had something, although weak. This 12z run has nothing whatsoever. Even the two Euro Parallel runs have a storm.

[TheStormExpert]

Also it's moving at a very good clip when compared to the 00z run.

[TheStormExpert]

12Z won't have it, similar to the previous 12Z run. I'd be willing to bet the next 0Z will show it again. I'm really curious why the two runs seem to behave this way.

Previous 12z run at least had something, although weak. This 12z run has nothing whatsoever. Even the two Euro Parallel runs have a storm.

Does today's 12z Euro-P have it?

[Kingarabian]

12Z won't have it, similar to the previous 12Z run. I'd be willing to bet the next 0Z will show it again. I'm really curious why the two runs seem to behave this way.

Previous 12z run at least had something, although weak. This 12z run has nothing whatsoever. Even the two Euro Parallel runs have a storm.

Does today's 12z Euro-P have it?

Yes, a strong Cat.2. I posted it a page back.

[gatorcane]

Even the low resolution JMA shows deepening low pressure approaching the Lesser Antilles. Also Note TD #4 crossing southern Florida.

[Kingarabian]

The GFS Parallel continues to show nothing.

[stormlover2013]

lol I know

[RL3AO]

The GFS Parallel continues to show nothing.

It would be funny if we flip to the other side of the coin with the GFS. Instead of developing too many storms and occasionally getting one right that others didn't, it becomes one that develops very few storms and occasionally completely misses them.

[Kingarabian]

The GFS Parallel continues to show nothing.

It would be funny if we flip to the other side of the coin with the GFS. Instead of developing too many storms and occasionally getting one right that others didn't, it becomes one that develops very few storms and occasionally completely misses them.

That's exactly what seems to have happened. But you know despite the GFS Parallels flipflops this season, its actually been on the Euro's level in my opinion in terms of TC Gensis. It was off with Cindy but it did well with Bret and TD#4

[tarheelprogrammer]

Until both the ECMWF and GFS are on the same page consistently I would side with the ECMWF in the mid range. The ECMWF does have a problem with occasionally not showing a storm in its mid range though, but overall it seems to be better at showing TCG. However, I will note that I am not an expert, and the experts tend to use a blend of models and forecasting.

[Bocadude85]

Until both the ECMWF and GFS are on the same page consistently I would side with the ECMWF in the mid range. The ECMWF does have a problem with occasionally not showing a storm in its mid range though, but overall it seems to be better at showing TCG. However, I will note that I am not an expert, and the experts tend to use a blend of models and forecasting.

The ECMWF is the first model that started showing development with this wave. The 0Z run had a major hurricane in the leeward islands. If nothing else at least the GFS has been consistent in developing this wave.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Until both the ECMWF and GFS are on the same page consistently I would side with the ECMWF in the mid range. The ECMWF does have a problem with occasionally not showing a storm in its mid range though, but overall it seems to be better at showing TCG. However, I will note that I am not an expert, and the experts tend to use a blend of models and forecasting.

The ECMWF is the first model that started showing development with this wave. The 0Z run had a major hurricane in the leeward islands. If nothing else at least the GFS has been consistent in developing this wave.

Sure, but unless both models are consistent as in a few days showing something similar I would still side with the ECMWF with whatever it is showing. It is just an opinion though, and like butt ho.........you know the rest.

[Kingarabian]

EPS has also shifted south and are much more in line with the Euro Parallel. They have a TS skirting SA, and moving west. So I'm expecting another swing in the operational Euro.

However, only two of the 70 ensemble members of these models showed a hurricane forming in their 0Z Friday runs, and only about 20% of the members of the European model ensemble predicted that the African wave would even develop into a tropical depression.

-Dr. Jeff Masters



That's why it's very important to pay close attention to the ensembles. EPS was considerably less enthusiastic and the OP Euro followed suit.
Will be interesting to see what the 12z EPS has.