Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[TheStormExpert]

00z Euro Parallel similar to the 00z Euro Operational run. Recurves just before hitting Peurto Rico. Intensities is at 982mb, 23mb higher. Moving slowly.

Is the 500mb pattern the same on days 8-10?

[ROCK]

Forecasting the 500 pattern 8-11 days from now is like playing darts with a really bad player. Fun to do but full of errors. We need to wait until this gets closer in the mid range..like 172hrs and in range and not the 288 range lol

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Forecasting the 500 pattern 8-11 days from now is like playing darts with a really bad player. Fun to do but full of errors. We need to wait until this gets closer in the mid range..like 172hrs and in range and not the 288 range lol

If one believes the 00z ECMWF we're in the <168 hour range.

[Dylan]

Now this is turning more serious for the islands as the main models are on consensus.Fellow friends in the islands,let's be prepared in case what the models are showing comes to fructition but still is not a stone thing until a system is formed as things in the atmospheric pattern can change in 10 days.

with the SAL and unfavorable MJO?

I'd give this a 20% chance of development within the next 7 days. If it develops, it should not exceed weak to moderate TS intensity given the large scale unfavorable conditions. Maybe if it can get north of the deep tropics, it will have a chance to do more

Considering there have only been 8 July Major Hurricanes since 1851, I understand why you're skeptical. However, the MJO is progged to be favorable by the timeframe depicted by the ECM/GFS blend. If this isn't a strong signal that's being depicted by the guidance, then I don't know what is.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS operational Developing starts just prior to reaching the islands.

[Siker]

12z CMC picked this up for the first time.

[cycloneye]

Powerful Hurricane South of PR.

[TheStormExpert]

So now it looks like we have three global models onboard with this potential system as of 12z today, still awaiting the 12z Euro.

GFS


Euro


CMC

[SFLcane]

Mentioned last night GFS now into CA.. we shall see

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Strong shear & land interaction keeps the system in check this run beyond 240 hours, but at the same time we're talking about total fantasy land.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC picked this up for the first time.

[TheStormExpert]

Into the Eastern GoM as a weak sloppy TC.

[TheStormExpert]

Strong shear & land interaction keeps the system in check this run beyond 240 hours, but at the same time we're talking about total fantasy land.

Idk it looks to still have it's anticyclone overhead. I'm thinking close proximity to the southern coast of Cuba and the other Greater Antilles is to explain for the ragged mess in the Gulf, though that's too far out to speculate.

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS shows NW Florida again at end run..

[stormlover2013]

180 hours ignore after that

[Dylan]

Strong shear & land interaction keeps the system in check this run beyond 240 hours, but at the same time we're talking about total fantasy land.

Idk it looks to still have it's anticyclone overhead. I'm thinking close proximity to the southern coast of Cuba and the other Greater Antilles is to explain for the ragged mess in the Gulf, though that's too far out to speculate.

The Boundary Layer may not have time to recover.

[gatorcane]

Bullish 12Z GFS Ensembles:

[cycloneye]

If it stays as a low rider thru MDR between Africa and Windward Islands it can avoid the dry air to the north of 13 -14N.

[tarheelprogrammer]

180 hours ignore after that

I second this. Two thumbs up. However, I would say 96 hours, and stop there.

[RL3AO]

180 hours ignore after that

I second this. Two thumbs up. However, I would say 96 hours, and stop there.

But then we'd have nothing to talk about haha.