Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Hurricaneman]

00z GFS remaining quite vigorous with the wave in question once it reaches the Caribbean.

JMO, likely convective feedback. The GFS did the same exact thing with TD 4.

Hopefully it's convective feedback or this needs to be watched in the next week to 10 days

[Dylan]

00z GFS remaining quite vigorous with the wave in question once it reaches the Caribbean.

JMO, likely convective feedback. The GFS did the same exact thing with TD 4.

I guess the European-Parallel has convective feedback issues as well.

[Hurricaneman]

00z GFS remaining quite vigorous with the wave in question once it reaches the Caribbean.

JMO, likely convective feedback. The GFS did the same exact thing with TD 4.

I guess the European-Parallel has convective feedback issues as well.

Makes me think this could be a real threat to the lesser Antilles the next 7 to 10 days

[Alyono]

convective feedback should be banned on this forum as most misuse it and have no clue what it even means

Now, there are some serious issues with this MU run that gives me pause regarding its dynamics. Weakening in the Gulf under a large ridge of high pressure? Seriously?

[Dylan]

00z GFS remaining quite vigorous with the wave in question once it reaches the Caribbean.

JMO, likely convective feedback. The GFS did the same exact thing with TD 4.

I guess the European-Parallel has convective feedback issues as well.

Makes me think this could be a real threat to the lesser Antilles the next 7 to 10 days

The GFS has a tropical storm as soon as Tuesday. If the models continue to come on with this, we could see the NHC use the yellow crayon by this weekend.

[Hurricaneman]

convective feedback should be banned on this forum as most misuse it and have no clue what it even means

Now, there are some serious issues with this MU run that gives me pause regarding its dynamics. Weakening in the Gulf under a large ridge of high pressure? Seriously?

Agreed, if anything that would more than likely be a nasty hurricane

[Kingarabian]

convective feedback should be banned on this forum as most misuse it and have no clue what it even means

Now, there are some serious issues with this MU run that gives me pause regarding its dynamics. Weakening in the Gulf under a large ridge of high pressure? Seriously?

Probably some unforeseen shear that is not charted well on the GFS shear map.

The Euro Parallel was hinting at a very strong ridge. It made landfall over Venezuela then tried to do it again before brushing the ABC islands.

[Kingarabian]

GFS Parallel develops this. In the EPAC.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

convective feedback should be banned on this forum as most misuse it and have no clue what it even means

I apologize for using an incorrect and inaccurate term.

Guess we'll see what the models are showing in the AM... ECMWF operational has developed this system before in the past, but only for one run. It'll be interesting to see if the ECMWF-parallel is a prelude to the operational jumping onboard.

[AutoPenalti]

There will come a time in the (near?) future when model runs from 200+ hrs out will become accurate enough in consecutive runs to the point where terms like "convective feedback" will become obsolete.

By that logic, anxiety levels would plummet completely.

[Alyono]

There will come a time in the (near?) future when model runs from 200+ hrs out will become accurate enough in consecutive runs to the point where terms like "convective feedback" will become obsolete.

By that logic, anxiety levels would plummet completely.

models have been accurate that far out recently. Matthew and Cindy were well forecast that far out

[Ivanhater]

00Z Euro now showing an intensifying hurricane approaching the Islands

[wxmann_91]

0Z Euro now shows development as well through 168 hr.

EDIT: dangit, ninja'd!

[Dylan]

Thats a pretty strong signal, with the GFS/GFS Ensembles, ECMWF, and ECMWF-Parallel all showing a hurricane approaching the Lesser Antilles in a little over a week. Only recent thing that is comparable is Emily in July 2005.

[Dylan]

Significant disagreement between the GFS & European on the 500mb synoptic pattern over the Continental North America.

[Ivanhater]

00Z Euro has an intensifying Major Hurricane strike on the Lesser Antilles at 216 hours

[Alyono]

957mb on the full res at the end of the run

Not only would this cause severe wind damage, but catastrophic flood damage as it is not moving fast at all

[AutoPenalti]

00Z Euro has an intensifying Major Hurricane strike on the Lesser Antilles at 216 hours

Presumably located a bit south of the Herbert Box?


EDIT: Looks like it's starts to turn poleward right at the end of the run.

[Kingarabian]

Significant disagreement between the GFS & European on the 500mb synoptic pattern over the Continental North America.

It's interesting that the Euro has shifted considerably towards the JMA.

Japanese model in its steering patterns is showing low pressures
that extend well off the eastern seaboard (weakness). It's hard to imagine anything getting past the eastern Caribbean with that kind of setup.

So if it's going to affect land areas, how fast it develops is the key factor as a weaker system will move more west.

[USTropics]

The CFS has consistently shown lowering pressures in this area for the past 4 runs now: