Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

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Kingarabian
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#21 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 06, 2017 3:29 pm

I feel it doesn't matter if shear is higher or below average as a whole. It depends on where those shear vectors setup. Shear in the EPAC is currently running below average, but perfectly placed shear in its path tore 94E apart.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#22 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:28 pm

18z GFS drops it. More in line the with the European. Fully expect the GFS to bring it back @ 00z of course!

Edit: Intensifying as it approaches the eastern caribbean. Similar track to the Euro so far.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#23 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:32 pm

18z Gfs still has it..just weaker
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#24 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:34 pm

Interesting that the 18z GFS Para has nothing at all.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#25 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:36 pm

Didn't the GFS-P get TD#4 right while the old GFS went crazy with bombing it out?
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#26 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:37 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Didn't the GFS-P get TD#4 right while the old GFS went crazy with bombing it out?


Yes. GFS Parallel wasn't perfect with TD4 but it sided with the Euro more times than not.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#27 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:37 pm

Intensifying quite a bit approaching the Islands
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#28 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:39 pm

18z GFS shows higher shear in the E-Caribb compared to the 12z.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#29 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:39 pm

I think the GFS is gradually trending towards the Euro, clearly conditions aren't favorable just yet throughout the Atlantic.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#30 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS shows higher shear in the E-Caribb compared to the 12z.

But there is an Anticyclone overhead wouldn't that help?
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#31 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:42 pm

Who said it dropped it. :D


Image
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#32 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:42 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:18z GFS shows higher shear in the E-Caribb compared to the 12z.

But there is an Anticyclone overhead wouldn't that help?


Appears so. Intensifying now.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#33 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:44 pm

cycloneye wrote:Who said it dropped it. :D


[img]http://i.imgur.com/ByLvUAD.png[/mg]


Correct wording would be it "delayed" development lol.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#34 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:44 pm

Anything past a week on the GFS is just la la land. :lol:
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#35 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:45 pm

The GFS is simply showing us all what would happen if conditions were favorable :D.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#36 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:47 pm

Basically sums up the GFS.

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneCity/status/883089699723718656


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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#37 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:48 pm

Yeah just south of PR. :eek: Powerful Hurricane.

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#38 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:49 pm

Destination Hispanola.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#39 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:50 pm

Shredazola... :lol:
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave in Western Africa

#40 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 06, 2017 5:50 pm

Looks like a gulf Coast run
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