ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

well the 12z euro is back to keeping it around for a few days at least unlike last nights death within 24hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

Have they ever dropped development chances only to have to write an advisory package anyway

I'm sure that's happened. They're not saying it won't develop. Chances are still better-than-not (60%). They're just not as confident that it will ever qualify for an upgrade.

What would prevent it from qualifying at the moment? It seems like it's organized quickly over the last several hours.

well technically convection has not quite persisted for 24 hrs with this consolidated llc..

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/882699859689705473

[wxman57]

What would prevent it from qualifying at the moment? It seems like it's organized quickly over the last several hours.

Convection is neither organized nor persistent around a well-defined center.

[GCANE]

Those cloud tops look like they are circulating around something.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[Kingarabian]

Bastardi says the Euro may be over doing the shear N/north east of the islands.

[weathaguyry]

I'm not sure, if the next TWO gives the famous "90/90 only a slight increase in organization will lead to a tropical depression forming" then we'll probably see TD 4 at 11PM

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Er, this looks pretty organized and persistent to me...especially compared to other storms NHC has named, even this year.

[floridasun78]

Er, this looks pretty organized and persistent to me...especially compared to other storms NHC has named, even this year.

what saw on pic earlier today expose low to east those storm most go under to be td

[weathaguyry]

Er, this looks pretty organized and persistent to me...especially compared to other storms NHC has named, even this year.

More centralized convection than Cindy ever had

[emeraldislenc]

Definitely looking better

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can someone explain that weird blackout appearing in the SAT images to the east of our storm?

[floridasun78]

Can someone explain that weird blackout appearing in the SAT images to the east of our storm?

i could be solar flare that sun have that affect sat pic

[Aric Dunn]

Can someone explain that weird blackout appearing in the SAT images to the east of our storm?

i could be solar flare that sun have that affect sat pic

nope no solar flares.. just other countries wanting to make their own money. its blacked out so that if you want to see that area you have to use their website/satellites.. lol

just ignorance is all. .

[GeneratorPower]

Many of these marginal systems have a DeceptoBall of convection near the center that ultimately dies after 6-8 hours.

[RL3AO]

Many of these marginal systems have a DeceptoBall of convection near the center that ultimately dies after 6-8 hours.

Conservation of mass my friend. Air goes up and the dry air from the surroundings rushes in. About six hours later, convection dies off and the column is too dry.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that shower activity has become more
concentrated in association with the area of low pressure centered
about 900 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some additional
development is possible tonight and Thursday, and a tropical
depression could form before conditions become less conducive on
Friday. The low is expected to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph for the next several days across the open Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Aric Dunn]

Many of these marginal systems have a DeceptoBall of convection near the center that ultimately dies after 6-8 hours.

Conservation of mass my friend. Air goes up and the dry air from the surroundings rushes in. About six hours later, convection dies off and the column is too dry.

well it has been nearly 18 hours now though since the convection developed last night.. lol

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for 94L for the first time...
Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin:

North Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/1745 UTC 12.1N 36.8W T1.5/1.5 94L
05/1145 UTC 12.0N 35.8W T1.0/1.0 94L

[Nimbus]

Some -90C tower cloud tops near the center.
Has that persistent convection look tonight.
Is the shear forecast iffy like Bastardi said?