ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[Orlando]

I would take your ability over most models these days ( and some people) ;P

Well, sometimes other factors can interfere. If we should get a strong rain train that runs across the gulf from Texas to Florida, that might cause bone trouble. And if that happens while there is an Atlantic system it could get confusing in my predictions.

When I lived in Tennessee,I could predict snow so accurately that people would consult me before they would make their plans. Since living in Florida since 2010, I am still learning how to judge the pain signs and how to read them for accuracy in predicting the hurricanes.

[Aric Dunn]

I would take your ability over most models these days ( and some people) ;P

Well, sometimes other factors can interfere. If we should get a strong rain train that runs across the gulf from Texas to Florida, that might cause bone trouble. And if that happens while there is an Atlantic system it could get confusing in my predictions.

When I lived in Tennessee,I could predict snow so accurately that people would consult me before they would make their plans. Since living in Florida since 2010, I am still learning how to judge the pain signs and how to read them for accuracy in predicting the hurricanes.

well I will take your data into consideration from now on

[Orlando]

Aric, you are way to kind. I am very flattered.

By the way, after being away from this forum since Matthew it is good to chat with you again.

[abajan]

Still has a chance.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with the
broad area of low pressure centered about 800 miles west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands has changed little in organization since
yesterday. Environmental conditions are still favorable for a
tropical cyclone to form within the next day or two while the low
moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic. After that time, the system is expected to
encounter a dryer and more stable air mass, which should be less
favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

With all the "it's weakening" talk in this thread, I'm surprised formation chances weren't lowered.

NHC usually waits a few model cycles--remember the previous wave wasn't even mentioned until after the models dropped it. They'll probably lower it to 60/60 or 70/70 by 2am if the next batch of models don't show development.

Well, I don't know what the next batch of models showed, but the formation chance percentages haven't changed.

[Nimbus]

I believe there is an LLC east of the new blow up of convection. It appears to be moving due north or slightly west of due north.

It is quite easy to see now, because it is devoid of convection.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_meteosat.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_met_4km_visir2_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

Looks right on track to me, the convection is displaced a little west of the LLC.
Official forecast said conditions in a day or two might deteriorate but at least this should have a chance of being declared a TD before they call bones.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that the circulation associated with the
area of low pressure centered about 800 miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands has become better defined, but the associated
thunderstorm activity is not well organized. This system has the
potential to become a tropical depression today or Thursday before
conditions become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. The
low has been moving little, but it should begin a west-northwest
track at 10 to 15 mph today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[GCANE]

Amazing what a little patience and cooling of the upper troposphere can do.

Very nice layered and radial cirrus cloud pattern.

Indicative of multiple, colocated towers firing off.

Latest vis showing overshooting tops thru the top-most cirrus.

BTW, here is an interesting paper on the effect of boundary-layer friction with respect to TC formation in low latitudes.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/papers/Pub_128.pdf

[GCANE]

Off the scale rain rate.
Will definitely be heating up the core.

[BobHarlem]

Wow this topic died now that all the models (except the Canadian) make the storm go poof.

[tolakram]

visible loop

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=19824&y=8376&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=2&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Aric Dunn]

That is one bif surge in sal surrounding it right now. the east side is pretty dry lol..

[weathaguyry]

Not looking too bad!

[cycloneye]

Not a bright future ahead.

@TropicalTidbits
The average sounding roughly in that box to the north of #94L shows pretty stable lapse rates below 750mb, and dry. Bad for convection.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/882573265197256704

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
729 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 mb surface low is centered near 11N35W. A tropical wave
extends through the low from 06N to 20N. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is located within 120 nm in low's
western semicircle. No observations of the peak winds have been
available in the last several hours, though it is likely that the
strongest winds are 25-30 kt. Environmental conditions remain
favorable for a tropical cyclone to form within the next day or
two while the low moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph across the tropical Atlantic. The system retains a high
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

[abajan]

Wow this topic died now that all the models (except the Canadian) make the storm go poof.

The 94L discussion thread is pretty dead too.

[MGC]

Looks to me that 94L has got a bit better organized overnight. Decent blowup of convection and pretty tight circulation. Will the NHC pull the trigger and upgrade today?.......MGC

[Blown Away]

12z says 94L goes NE of Caribbean and then possible turn back W.

[wxman57]

Convection is displaced west of the weak LLC. ASCAT pass hit it, indicating mostly 15-20kt winds. It qualifies as a weak area of low pressure, but not a depression. Wind shear and dry air are impacting it today.

[GCANE]

Pretty decent anti-cyclone building over this.

Shear ahead has been consistently dropping for some time.

200mb vort looks clear ahead.

Convection much better today than yesterday with overshooting tops firing all morning.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Pretty decent anti-cyclone building over this.

Shear ahead has been consistently dropping for some time.

200mb vort looks clear ahead.

Convection much better today than yesterday with overshooting tops firing all morning.

Very true, however, dry air is all around this system and choking it. According to the models, which could be wrong, once it exits the dry air it will then have to contend with shear. If the GFS is right, and it heads into the Bahamas it seems shear will die down some. Which makes me wonder why it does not redevelop there, and strengthen some. Hmmm.

Edit: Also, the center is becoming naked right now. Very easy to see center is east of convection.