ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Vorticity and convergence increasing along the monsoon trough. Looking pretty good this afternoon.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro a little stronger thru 48 hrs

[cycloneye]

Yes 12z Euro stronger thru 48 hours.

[RL3AO]

You can clearly see how the models still want to combine two waves/vorticity maxima into one.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Why is this not a TD? Just wondering what it is missing. You can see the low level spin, and it appears much more organized than yesterday.

[cycloneye]

Stays south of prior runs at 96 hours.

[Kingarabian]

Euro down to 1010mb at 96hrs and it's more SW. It's approaching the unfavorable conditions that lay around 70W though. So will be interesting now.

[RL3AO]

Euro stronger and well south of the GFS.

[vbhoutex]

http://i.imgur.com/Tx3cDGx.gif

Vorticity and convergence increasing along the monsoon trough. Looking pretty good this afternoon.

Am I seeing a mid or low level turning at the lower right side of that image? I've only looked at this image, thus the reason for the question vs posting my thoughts on what I see.

[RL3AO]

http://i.imgur.com/Tx3cDGx.gif

Vorticity and convergence increasing along the monsoon trough. Looking pretty good this afternoon.

Am I seeing a mid or low level turning at the lower right side of that image? I've only looked at this image, thus the reason for the question vs posting my thoughts on what I see.

Should be a low-level circulation. It's improving by the hour along the monsoon trough.

[AutoPenalti]

[AtlanticWind]

Euro much farther south

[Kingarabian]

At hour 120 it begins to weaken, up to 1013mb.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Could this be another Tropical Storm Erika from 2015? Where the models had it going north of the islands, but it continued to trend into the Caribbean instead.

[vbhoutex]

http://i.imgur.com/Tx3cDGx.gif

Vorticity and convergence increasing along the monsoon trough. Looking pretty good this afternoon.

Am I seeing a mid or low level turning at the lower right side of that image? I've only looked at this image, thus the reason for the question vs posting my thoughts on what I see.

Upon further review of the image, I mean at the center right of the image. It appears to be a strong mid-level rotation developing and the possibility of low level turning attempting to develop just N or NW of the apparent mid-level turning as well as a low level outflow boundary heading quickly NW. But I think it has a ways to go to get to TD. I wouldn't be surprised at a call to TD within the next 48 hours, probably towards the end of that time frame. Again, this is based soley on the image above.

[RL3AO]

Why is this not a TD? Just wondering what it is missing. You can see the low level spin, and it appears much more organized than yesterday.

It needs to detach from the monsoon trough, which is causing most of the low-level convergence right now.

[Kingarabian]

Could this be another Tropical Storm Erika from 2015? Where the models had it going north of the islands, but it continued to trend into the Caribbean instead.

Doesn't matter if it goes north of the islands or south at this point. It's dying as soon as it approaches the islands.

[Nimbus]

Looks like they're buying into the GFS's sudden sharp NW turn. I find that a little suspect.

The storm2k consensus had the track north of the islands before it was even an invest.
Its slow moving, not being swept along rapidly west under ridge flow.
The official forecast isn't going to speculate on the strength of the ridge 10 days out obviously.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro opens it up back into a wave at hour 140. Much further south and looks like it's going to run straight into the islands and more land areas.

I'll post model runs as soon as I get on a PC if no one else does.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Could this be another Tropical Storm Erika from 2015? Where the models had it going north of the islands, but it continued to trend into the Caribbean instead.

Doesn't matter if it goes north of the islands or south at this point. It's dying as soon as it approaches the islands.

I agree, but I was just merely pointing out if it could take a similar track to Erika that year.