Texas Summer 2017

[bubba hotep]

HRRR is doing some funny stuff tomorrow, it lays down a pretty subtle boundary across DFW near the end of the run with a more robust outflow boundary approaching the Red River. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

When is this going to happen?

Later runs backed off, it was the HRRR doing HRRR things.

[DonWrk]

The 3K Nam has been so consistent on a pretty good rain. Widespread 1-3 inches for all North Texas.

[bubba hotep]

The 3K Nam has been so consistent on a pretty good rain. Widespread 1-3 inches for all North Texas.

The 06z comes close to giving DFW an above avg rainfall month right out of the gates. Texas Tech is shifted eastward a bit, so pretty strong agreement that we will see a good soaking tonight into tomorrow.

[Portastorm]

Good luck to y'all in North Texas about getting some of that rainfall!

For us in SC Texas, expect hot and dry. Meteograms for both the 0z GFS and Euro show no rain and upper 90s for the next 10 days. Really not surprising as it's that time of year.

[weatherdude1108]

Good luck to y'all in North Texas about getting some of that rainfall!

For us in SC Texas, expect hot and dry. Meteograms for both the 0z GFS and Euro show no rain and upper 90s for the next 10 days. Really not surprising as it's that time of year.

Have a Happy 4th of July weekend in any case!

[starsfan65]

When is the time frame for storms to come into DFW?

[Ntxw]

When is the time frame for storms to come into DFW?

Should they make it probably sometime early in the morning. Perhaps 3am-6am timeframe from HRRR, Nam 3km says midnightish.. Otherwise hot and humid

[bubba hotep]

SPC upgrades to Enhanced and expands Slight southward to capture the northern burbs

[Ntxw]

94F at the airport and 73dp! These high dew-points man! It's a love-hate thing this summer. It feels awful but it's a sign of a moist environment and wet grounds...

[JDawg512]

I'm glad it rained when it did, but the soil moisture and rejuvenated plant growth will not last for more than a week. Within 2 weeks most flora will slow or shut down and the top 6 inches of soil will be dry. By the 3rd week of July, if we don't see significant rain, deep soil moisture will be depleted.

There doesn't look like there is much hope long range for July and yes it is the driest month of the year for Austin as weatherdude1108 alluded to so I'm not expecting much to happen.

I was wondering about that. For example, I received close to 3" of rain in 24 hours earlier this week. Took the dogs on my usual walk through a wooded trail with a dry creek bed. That creek bed will fill with water usually when we receive those kind of amounts. But the next day it was dry ... no sitting or flowing water. I figured the top levels of the soil must be relatively dry.

Well, I am sure that the 0.25" that my soil got this past week is going to evaporate within the next 24 hours.

Yea, most of the water got soaked up pretty quickly despite the high rain rates we had with that evening storm. The slow steady half inch of light to moderate rain that we got in the early morning hours helped to loosen the topsoil so we didn't see much runoff thankfully, lucky timing...

[Yukon Cornelius]

SPC upgrades to Enhanced and expands Slight southward to capture the northern burbs

Ill take it if it means the chance of heavy rain! Especially right before July 4th. Its like a war zone with all of the fireworks out here in the sticks. Vegetation moisture is always a concern out here with the 4th.

[JDawg512]

SPC upgrades to Enhanced and expands Slight southward to capture the northern burbs

Ill take it if it means the chance of heavy rain! Especially right before July 4th. Its like a war zone with all of the fireworks out here in the sticks. Vegetation moisture is always a concern out here with the 4th.

Look at that bare spot right over central, south central and south Tx. What a depressing sight. It's the shark fin of drought...

[Ntxw]

Noisy early morning hours for DFW from the short range guidance. Unfortunately it mostly dissipates south of Waco...

[bubba hotep]

Storms are really starting to crank up in Oklahoma. Given the setup, I suspect a new watch will be issued later for N. Texas as the potential seems to be increasing for a significant high wind event.

[starsfan65]

Storms are really starting to crank up in Oklahoma. Given the setup, I suspect a new watch will be issued later for N. Texas as the potential seems to be increasing for a significant high wind event.

Where is the watch is going to be set up?

[Brent]

Lol the hrrr basically has DFW's normal July rainfall by 9am tomorrow

Comes in between 3-5am

[South Texas Storms]

Noisy early morning hours for DFW from the short range guidance. Unfortunately it mostly dissipates south of Waco...

http://i65.tinypic.com/10x56c6.png

Yep...outside of north Texas, this system does nothing for the rest of the state. Quite frustrating

[Yukon Cornelius]

Temp dropped to 69. Currently getting hammered with heavy rain and really strong winds. No hail though, thankfully.

[bubba hotep]

Storms are really starting to crank up in Oklahoma. Given the setup, I suspect a new watch will be issued later for N. Texas as the potential seems to be increasing for a significant high wind event.

Where is the watch is going to be set up?

I would guess maybe from I20 north or there may not even be a new watched issued. FWD was still pretty capped on the 00z sounding but the HiRes CAMS all agree that storms will move though DFW overnight with heavy rain.

[Brent]

Line approaching here, clearly not severe, hardly any lightning even

Not much rain yet but the temperature must have dropped 10 degrees lol I was just outside a half hour ago and its like a different airmass...