ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Bella, Kimmie, Crazy where is your location? Relative of mine has house for sale in Metairie. It is on a street by Martin Wine Cellar. They are in Houston now. Wonder how much they will get there too.

Golden Triangle region of MS.

[CycloneGuru]

So is the storm moving anymore west?

[tailgater]

Sure looks like the dry air should weaken it to my untrained eyes, also thinking this will be inland before predicted landfall of Wednesday night late.
Just my opinion though. Listen to official forecast.

[La Breeze]

Getting windy here in Vermilion Parish.

[USTropics]

Already seeing 3+ inches of rain along the coastline. Stay safe everyone:

Total rainfall so far:


Current radar image:

[southerngale]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 210548
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
100 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 91.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Alabama-Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 91.4 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and
then toward the north is expected tonight and early Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of
southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and
move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. Slight weakening
is forecast to begin on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
mainly north through northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6
inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into
southeast Texas through Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning to spread
across portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast over the
eastern part of the warning area. These conditions should spread
westward within the warning area through early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, with isolated areas possibly up to 4 feet.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through today from
southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[caneman]

Am I missing something? All I see in the gulf is just a giant naked swirl almost completely devoid of thunderstorms? How is this 60 mph?

[USTropics]

Am I missing something? All I see in the gulf is just a giant naked swirl almost completely devoid of thunderstorms? How is this 60 mph?

You're correct, the main circulation is completely void of thunderstorms. However, due to the ULL located to Cindy's west that's causing the displaced convection, baroclinic processes are aiding the band of storms currently over portions of LA. There may be gusts up to 50kt, but extremely isolated (I haven't seen any reports yet from surface observations).

[USTropics]

Essentially, Cindy is transitioning towards more of a cold-core system (i.e. subtropical):

[USTropics]

I think eventual 'landfall' will be somewhere along the border of LA/Texas in about 24 hours. The main threat has always been and will continue to be the potential for copious amounts of rainfall (especially in the bands currently displaced to the east). The ULL is forecast to retrograde back to the NW, and that should allow some convection to build near the center as it makes landfall.

[arlwx]

Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Alabama-Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 91.9 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and
then toward the north is expected tonight and early Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of
southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and
move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. Slight weakening
is forecast to begin on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
mainly north through northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6
inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and
eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread
northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5
inches with locally higher amounts possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast over the eastern part of the warning
area. These conditions should spread westward within the warning
area through early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, with isolated areas possibly up to 4 feet.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning through
tonight from the western Florida Panhandle to southern Louisiana.

[USTropics]

Recon will be out soon to investigate Cindy's wind field. The NHC has alluded to the current 60 mph being too generous (which is most likely the case). They'll wait for recon to confirm though.

Cindy does not look much like a tropical cyclone on satellite
images this morning. The deep convection is well-removed to the
north and northeast of an exposed low-level center, and there is a
rather linear north-south band of convection several hundred miles
east of the center. Water vapor imagery indicates that an
upper-level low is located a couple of hundred miles to the
northwest of Cindy's center, suggesting that the system has at least
some subtropical characteristics. The current intensity is held at
50 kt for this advisory, although surface observations and a recent
ASCAT overpass suggest that this may be generous. Global model
forecasts indicate significant shear, with some mid-level dry air
wrapping around the circulation, over the next day or so. These
factors, along with the current lack of convection near the center,
should result in some weakening of the system prior to landfall,
perhaps more so than indicated in the NHC forecast. An Air Force
Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the cyclone
soon, to confirm the intensity and wind field.

The main circulation is still pretty evident:

[arlwx]

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Cindy does not look much like a tropical cyclone on satellite
images this morning. The deep convection is well-removed to the
north and northeast of an exposed low-level center, and there is a
rather linear north-south band of convection several hundred miles
east of the center. Water vapor imagery indicates that an
upper-level low is located a couple of hundred miles to the
northwest of Cindy's center, suggesting that the system has at least
some subtropical characteristics. The current intensity is held at
50 kt for this advisory, although surface observations and a recent
ASCAT overpass suggest that this may be generous. Global model
forecasts indicate significant shear, with some mid-level dry air
wrapping around the circulation, over the next day or so. These
factors, along with the current lack of convection near the center,
should result in some weakening of the system prior to landfall,
perhaps more so than indicated in the NHC forecast. An Air Force
Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the cyclone
soon, to confirm the intensity and wind field.

The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 310/7 kt.
Cindy is expected to turn northward and move through a break in the
mid-level subtropical ridge along the northwest Gulf of Mexico
coast. Later in the forecast period Cindy, or its remnant, should
accelerate northeastward in the westerlies over the eastern United
States. The official track forecast is mainly a blend of the ECMWF
and GFS and also leans toward the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus
prediction.

The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall
over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more
information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local
National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 27.3N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 28.0N 92.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 29.3N 93.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 30.9N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/0600Z 33.2N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0600Z 36.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[stormreader]

Am I missing something? All I see in the gulf is just a giant naked swirl almost completely devoid of thunderstorms? How is this 60 mph?

You're right cane man. It's not very impressive is it? But major storms don't happen very often. This is just your run of the mill kind of thing. Like a lot if things, it's pretty much overrated. Don't blame you for feeling that way. Sometimes it takes years for really important systems to appear. Louisiana had a 500 year flood just last year. Are you aware of that? 25-30 inches of rain in 48 hours. But many never heard much about it. Didn't have a name. God bless! Hope you never have to experience what's real, and not just the usual reports from websites.

[RL3AO]

Am I missing something? All I see in the gulf is just a giant naked swirl almost completely devoid of thunderstorms? How is this 60 mph?

Pressure gradient force, my friend.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like showers are wrapping around the west side now.

[GCANE]

I think that may be about it for Cindy.
LLC is running over strong vort at 500mb and higher.
ULL's sinking air is inhibiting any updrafts that could fire off convection.
On top of that, there is now a strong thermal inversion in the boundary layer just below the warm core.
Cindy is drying up at an early age.

[tolakram]

HiRez 0Z Euro (Weatherbell) is now 995mb near landfall and has come further east to the LA TX border.

animation

[RL3AO]

I think that may be about it for Cindy.
LLC is running over strong vort at 500mb and higher.
ULL's sinking air is inhibiting any updrafts that could fire off convection.
On top of that, there is now a strong thermal inversion in the boundary layer just below the warm core.
Cindy is drying up at an early age.

That may be it in terms of an intensifying tropical cyclone with deep convection over the center. It certainly isn't it in terms of heavy rainfall for the Gulf Coast. There's a lot of convection remaining over the eastern Gulf.

[wxman57]

I'm seeing reports from offshore platforms of 40-45 kts and 12-16 ft seas NW of Cindy's center. With all that mid-level dry air around the center, it will be hard for Cindy to recover before it moves ashore tomorrow morning.