ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[butch]

The shear and dry air is pretty incredible. The dry air is being persistent too, just not going anywhere.

I haven't seen Jeffs latest update. Of course I am not on his distribution. have you seen it?

Rock, Is this what you are looking for?

Tuesday evening briefing from Jeff:

Tropical Storm Warning is issued from San Luis Pass TX to Pearl River, MS including Galveston Bay and inland Liberty County.

Tropical storm Cindy likely to impact the SE TX coast late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Discussion:
USAF mission, ships, buoys, and oil platforms across the northern Gulf of Mexico has shown a large mass of tropical storm force winds today and a central pressure around 999mb. USAF mission currently investigating Cindy continues to suggest the system is poorly organized with nearly all of the deep convection removed well to the north and east of the center. The plane has also fixed a nearly stationary center this afternoon and based on latest visible images it appears that Cindy may be in the middle of completing an anti-cyclonic loop.

It needs to continue to be stressed that the majority of the weather is currently located well to the north and east of the ill defined center.

Track:
The track has shifted slightly west and most model guidance has narrowed today with a landfall along the coast between Galveston Bay and Cameron LA. Once Cindy completes the current looping motion, she should begin to move toward the NW and approach the NW US Gulf coast late on Wednesday. Based on the current forecast track from NHC, Cindy will be approaching the coast late Wednesday and likely making landfall along the SE TX coast near or just east of Galveston Bay early Thursday morning and then move NNW and N across deep east TX on Thursday.

Intensity:
While the pressure is fairly low for tropical cyclone, the ill defined nature of the circulation and broad nature continues to result in a spread out wind field. There is little evidence that upper level wind shear and dry air that has and continues to plague the system will abate much before landfall. There may be a small window near the coast where the upper level conditions may improve, but by that time the circulation will be interacting with the land areas along the coast.

Decision Support (Impacts)

Winds:
Tropical storm force winds will begin to overspread the eastern coastal waters early on Wednesday morning and arrive into the Chambers and Bolivar coastline by late afternoon on Wednesday and then into Galveston Bay and Galveston Island by late afternoon to early evening. TS force winds will spread inland along and east of I-45 Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Chambers County: sustained winds of 40-50mph likely Wed night and Thursday morning
Galveston County: sustained winds of 40-50mph likely Bolivar and Galveston Island Wed night and Thursday morning
Harris County: sustained winds of 30-40mph possible late Wed night and Thursday morning may gust to 45-50 along the bay front
Liberty County: sustained winds of 30-40mph Thursday morning.
All other counties: winds generally below 40mph.

Tides:
Chambers County: 3-4 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW)
Galveston County: 3-4 feet above MLLW
Harris County: 2-3 feet above MLLW
Brazoria: 1-2 feet above MLLW

Seas:
Seas are building across our coastal waters currently and will be increasing to 4-7 feet tonight and Wednesday and 10-12 feet across our outer coastal waters Wednesday afternoon. Waves on the Gulf beaches will range from 3-5 feet and help to pile additional water. Some minor beach erosion and tidal overwash will be possible.

Rainfall:
The main changes this afternoon have been to the rainfall amounts across the region. With the slight west track shift this has spread the potential for heavy rainfall further west into SE TX. Additionally, this increases the risk for higher short duration rainfall totals of 2-3 inches per hours mainly along and east of I-45.

Chambers County: 3-5 inches isolated 7 inches
Liberty County: 4-5 inches isolated 7 inches
Harris County: 3-5 inches isolated 7 inches mainly east of I-45
Galveston County: 2-3 inches isolated 4 inches
San Jacinto County: 4-5 inches isolated 7 inches
Polk County: 5 inches isolated 7 inches
Montgomery County: 3-5 inches isolated 7 inches
Walker County: 3-5 inches isolated 6 inches

Additional changes to impacts may be required as Cindy evolves on Wednesday and nears the coast.

[jasons2k]

The shear and dry air is pretty incredible. The dry air is being persistent too, just not going anywhere.

I haven't seen Jeffs latest update. Of course I am not on his distribution. have you seen it?

Here is the 4PM update from Jeff (although I received it at 5:45):

Tropical Storm Warning is issued from San Luis Pass TX to Pearl River, MS including Galveston Bay and inland Liberty County.

Tropical storm Cindy likely to impact the SE TX coast late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Discussion:
USAF mission, ships, buoys, and oil platforms across the northern Gulf of Mexico has shown a large mass of tropical storm force winds today and a central pressure around 999mb. USAF mission currently investigating Cindy continues to suggest the system is poorly organized with nearly all of the deep convection removed well to the north and east of the center. The plane has also fixed a nearly stationary center this afternoon and based on latest visible images it appears that Cindy may be in the middle of completing an anti-cyclonic loop.

It needs to continue to be stressed that the majority of the weather is currently located well to the north and east of the ill defined center.

Track:
The track has shifted slightly west and most model guidance has narrowed today with a landfall along the coast between Galveston Bay and Cameron LA. Once Cindy completes the current looping motion, she should begin to move toward the NW and approach the NW US Gulf coast late on Wednesday. Based on the current forecast track from NHC, Cindy will be approaching the coast late Wednesday and likely making landfall along the SE TX coast near or just east of Galveston Bay early Thursday morning and then move NNW and N across deep east TX on Thursday.

Intensity:
While the pressure is fairly low for tropical cyclone, the ill defined nature of the circulation and broad nature continues to result in a spread out wind field. There is little evidence that upper level wind shear and dry air that has and continues to plague the system will abate much before landfall. There may be a small window near the coast where the upper level conditions may improve, but by that time the circulation will be interacting with the land areas along the coast.

Decision Support (Impacts)

Winds:
Tropical storm force winds will begin to overspread the eastern coastal waters early on Wednesday morning and arrive into the Chambers and Bolivar coastline by late afternoon on Wednesday and then into Galveston Bay and Galveston Island by late afternoon to early evening. TS force winds will spread inland along and east of I-45 Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Chambers County: sustained winds of 40-50mph likely Wed night and Thursday morning
Galveston County: sustained winds of 40-50mph likely Bolivar and Galveston Island Wed night and Thursday morning
Harris County: sustained winds of 30-40mph possible late Wed night and Thursday morning may gust to 45-50 along the bay front
Liberty County: sustained winds of 30-40mph Thursday morning.

All other counties: winds generally below 40mph.

Tides:
Chambers County: 3-4 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW)
Galveston County: 3-4 feet above MLLW
Harris County: 2-3 feet above MLLW
Brazoria: 1-2 feet above MLLW

Seas:
Seas are building across our coastal waters currently and will be increasing to 4-7 feet tonight and Wednesday and 10-12 feet across our outer coastal waters Wednesday afternoon. Waves on the Gulf beaches will range from 3-5 feet and help to pile additional water. Some minor beach erosion and tidal overwash will be possible.

Rainfall:
The main changes this afternoon have been to the rainfall amounts across the region. With the slight west track shift this has spread the potential for heavy rainfall further west into SE TX. Additionally, this increases the risk for higher short duration rainfall totals of 2-3 inches per hours mainly along and east of I-45.

Chambers County: 3-5 inches isolated 7 inches
Liberty County: 4-5 inches isolated 7 inches
Harris County: 3-5 inches isolated 7 inches mainly east of I-45
Galveston County: 2-3 inches isolated 4 inches
San Jacinto County: 4-5 inches isolated 7 inches
Polk County: 5 inches isolated 7 inches
Montgomery County: 3-5 inches isolated 7 inches
Walker County: 3-5 inches isolated 6 inches

Additional changes to impacts may be required as Cindy evolves on Wednesday and nears the coast.

[tropicwatch]

The shear and dry air is pretty incredible. The dry air is being persistent too, just not going anywhere.

Kind of looks like the clouds are trying to thicken around the center of circulation. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

[ROCK]

that's what I was looking for....thanks

[ROCK]

18Z GFDL right up Galveston bay...ala IKE

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210002
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 10 20170620
235200 2618N 09034W 8424 01474 9963 +198 +172 121006 006 017 000 00
235230 2616N 09035W 8433 01466 9966 +192 +175 132005 006 018 000 00
235300 2615N 09035W 8433 01464 //// +187 //// 124007 007 018 000 01
235330 2613N 09036W 8429 01468 9969 +189 +182 123004 007 019 000 00
235400 2612N 09037W 8430 01468 //// +185 //// 152004 005 019 000 01
235430 2610N 09037W 8431 01469 9968 +190 +183 181004 004 014 001 03
235500 2609N 09038W 8425 01475 9966 +196 +172 152001 004 014 000 00
235530 2608N 09040W 8430 01472 9968 +195 +172 198002 004 013 000 00
235600 2607N 09041W 8429 01471 9966 +197 +171 191003 005 012 000 00
235630 2605N 09042W 8431 01469 9967 +198 +166 200002 002 014 000 00
235700 2604N 09043W 8429 01472 9968 +198 +164 204002 002 012 000 00
235730 2603N 09045W 8430 01469 9966 +198 +164 113000 001 013 000 00
235800 2602N 09046W 8429 01470 9969 +195 +165 022001 002 013 000 00
235830 2600N 09047W 8429 01472 9970 +194 +165 003003 004 013 000 00
235900 2559N 09049W 8429 01473 9971 +192 +165 357005 005 014 000 00
235930 2558N 09050W 8428 01473 9972 +190 +159 353005 005 014 000 00
000000 2557N 09051W 8432 01472 9973 +190 +157 342006 007 014 000 00
000030 2556N 09053W 8430 01470 9973 +190 +157 344007 008 015 000 00
000100 2555N 09054W 8429 01472 9972 +191 +158 344010 011 016 000 00
000130 2553N 09055W 8429 01474 9973 +195 +156 344010 010 016 000 00
$$
;

Pressure 996mb - VERY broad gradient though.

[Frank P]

The shear and dry air is pretty incredible. The dry air is being persistent too, just not going anywhere.

Kind of looks like the clouds are trying to thicken around the center of circulation. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

Looking better on the sat loops as feeder bands, albeit quite thin, are feeding the into center from the west, north and east quads, and the center has never looked this robust in its lifetime...

[jasons2k]

The shear and dry air is pretty incredible. The dry air is being persistent too, just not going anywhere.

Kind of looks like the clouds are trying to thicken around the center of circulation. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

Looking better on the sat loops as feeder bands, albeit quite thin, are feeding the into center from the west, north and east quads, and the center has never looked this robust in its lifetime...

I dunno, the west side is still looking pretty bare to me:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... f-13-200-1

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... f-07-200-1

and dry air feeding in the mid-levels:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... f-09-200-1

[Frank P]

Kind of looks like the clouds are trying to thicken around the center of circulation. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

Looking better on the sat loops as feeder bands, albeit quite thin, are feeding the into center from the west, north and east quads, and the center has never looked this robust in its lifetime...

I dunno, the west side is still looking pretty bare to me:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... f-13-200-1

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... f-07-200-1

and dry air feeding in the mid-levels:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... f-09-200-1

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html
use medium view, loop at high, 50 loops, quality 100%

[johngaltfla]

On the good news/flip side of things...

The farmers in the lower Midwest could use the rain. Hopefully this does turn into a non-event and the moisture moves up the Mississippi River Valley and provides a steady but not flooding rain event.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210012
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 11 20170621
000200 2552N 09057W 8430 01473 9974 +195 +157 347012 012 020 000 00
000230 2551N 09058W 8429 01473 9974 +194 +158 348013 013 027 001 00
000300 2550N 09059W 8425 01478 9974 +192 +161 349013 015 030 000 00
000330 2548N 09101W 8432 01472 9975 +194 +158 339014 015 031 000 00
000400 2547N 09102W 8428 01479 9979 +190 +160 331015 016 032 000 00
000430 2546N 09103W 8430 01476 9981 +190 +163 326018 019 031 000 00
000500 2545N 09105W 8429 01481 9982 +188 +168 321020 021 031 000 00
000530 2544N 09106W 8429 01478 9985 +185 +173 323021 021 033 000 00
000600 2542N 09107W 8430 01480 9984 +185 +175 325024 026 033 000 00
000630 2541N 09109W 8429 01481 9986 +183 +179 323027 027 034 000 00
000700 2540N 09110W 8430 01482 9987 +185 +177 325027 028 034 000 00
000730 2539N 09111W 8430 01482 9988 +183 +176 327027 028 035 000 00
000800 2538N 09112W 8429 01483 9991 +180 +177 334029 029 034 000 00
000830 2536N 09114W 8430 01486 9993 +179 +173 328028 029 033 000 00
000900 2535N 09115W 8430 01485 9993 +179 +172 329029 029 033 000 00
000930 2535N 09115W 8430 01485 9996 +181 +168 327032 036 033 000 00
001000 2533N 09118W 8431 01489 9997 +180 +154 325040 042 033 000 00
001030 2532N 09119W 8429 01492 9999 +180 +147 326042 043 031 000 00
001100 2530N 09120W 8430 01493 0006 +177 +142 328043 043 033 000 00
001130 2529N 09122W 8430 01493 0009 +173 +135 330044 044 033 001 00
$$
;

[HurricaneBrain]

Could be the sunset casting light on those low clouds, exposing them on GOES. I still think convection will fire up tonight around the CoC.

Kind of looks like the clouds are trying to thicken around the center of circulation. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

Looking better on the sat loops as feeder bands, albeit quite thin, are feeding the into center from the west, north and east quads, and the center has never looked this robust in its lifetime...

I dunno, the west side is still looking pretty bare to me:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... f-13-200-1

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... f-07-200-1

and dry air feeding in the mid-levels:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... f-09-200-1

[CrazyC83]

It looks like it will do a 210-degree run around me, yet perhaps far enough that it will be only periods of rain or scattered showers.

[Craters]

Definitely a tropical-storm "feel" to things on the northwestern shore of Clear Lake (at the Johnson Space Center) about two hours ago. Medium-altitude scud under dark skies that are interrupted by slivers of blue. Heh. You know things are weird when the wind is from the NE and the temperature and humidity are going up the uncomfortable ladder. Just under an hour later in Alvin, to the SW of Clear Lake: a normal mid-June day, nary a zephyr moving the leaves on the trees.

Fast-forward another hour: light gusts from the NNE in Alvin now, starting to get that tropical feel. The sky's looking busier, too.

Just thought you might like some ground truth...

[sphelps8681]

The shear and dry air is pretty incredible. The dry air is being persistent too, just not going anywhere.

Kind of looks like the clouds are trying to thicken around the center of circulation. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

Yes it does to my eyes.

[jasons2k]

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and02.html
use medium view, loop at high, 50 loops, quality 100%

I was gonna post that too, but was afraid it was too complicated

[bella_may]

Pascagoula, mobile and surrounding areas is about to get rocked with very heavy rain

[HeeBGBz]

Winds are kicking in here in Biloxi. Before was just rain. I don't know the windspeed. I just hear it outside my window.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 210022
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 12 20170621
001200 2528N 09123W 8430 01495 0013 +170 +128 332045 045 029 000 00
001230 2527N 09125W 8430 01494 0015 +165 +150 331044 045 027 000 00
001300 2526N 09126W 8431 01499 0015 +173 +149 327040 043 026 000 03
001330 2524N 09125W 8429 01501 0015 +172 +147 327039 040 /// /// 03
001400 2524N 09123W 8434 01493 0013 +172 +134 331039 040 026 000 00
001430 2524N 09121W 8428 01497 0013 +172 +130 330040 041 027 001 00
001500 2525N 09119W 8430 01494 0012 +172 +134 325041 042 028 000 00
001530 2525N 09117W 8429 01494 0007 +175 +145 322039 039 030 000 00
001600 2525N 09115W 8430 01492 0006 +175 +150 320038 039 031 001 00
001630 2525N 09113W 8429 01494 0005 +176 +149 318038 039 031 000 00
001700 2525N 09111W 8429 01494 0004 +180 +159 314034 037 031 000 00
001730 2525N 09109W 8431 01488 0001 +181 +162 312030 033 030 000 00
001800 2525N 09107W 8430 01491 9998 +182 +167 309025 026 030 000 00
001830 2525N 09105W 8429 01490 9998 +183 +168 307025 025 030 000 00
001900 2525N 09103W 8430 01492 9997 +183 +168 306023 025 032 000 00
001930 2525N 09101W 8430 01489 9994 +190 +165 305019 021 032 000 00
002000 2525N 09059W 8429 01491 9991 +190 +169 308018 019 032 000 00
002030 2525N 09057W 8429 01489 9994 +185 +171 301020 020 032 001 00
002100 2526N 09055W 8430 01488 9990 +190 +169 301018 019 032 001 00
002130 2526N 09053W 8430 01487 9990 +190 +171 300018 018 032 001 00
$$
;

Doesn't really have a classic TC structure, especially given its pressure gradient.

[ROCK]

the clouds do look to be thickening around the COC though no blow up of convection...see the dry air...and I am living in Kemah now and it does feel quite tropical outside...cant wait to play Frisbee golf tomorrow...