ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WeatherGuesser]

From NWS PAH as of 1800

"Tropical Storm Cindy, still in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, will slowly move north-northeast this week. At the same time, a frontal boundary in the upper Midwest will work southward toward the Quad State region by the end of the work week. The combination of the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy and the frontal boundary will focus copious amounts of rain across parts of the Quad State region, especially Friday and Saturday. Heavy rainfall , capable of causing flooding, is a possibility during that time, but specific timing and location of the heaviest rain is still in question."

The accompanying WPC map shows around 4" possible in many areas of KY and TN from Thursday through Saturday.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 202302
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 04 20170620
225200 2924N 08959W 5692 04776 0021 +001 //// 125021 025 /// /// 05
225230 2922N 09000W 5699 04770 //// -005 //// 123021 025 /// /// 05
225300 2920N 09001W 5698 04767 //// -010 //// 149018 023 /// /// 05
225330 2918N 09002W 5697 04764 0056 -008 //// 127022 024 /// /// 05
225400 2916N 09003W 5700 04766 0055 +006 +006 152012 024 /// /// 03
225430 2914N 09004W 5684 04788 0017 +004 //// 170013 017 /// /// 05
225500 2912N 09005W 5703 04748 //// -008 //// 156025 028 /// /// 05
225530 2911N 09006W 5689 04745 //// -008 //// 132028 029 /// /// 05
225600 2909N 09005W 5702 04761 0000 +002 //// 161024 030 /// /// 05
225630 2907N 09004W 5696 04768 9997 +007 +007 191031 034 /// /// 03
225700 2905N 09003W 5696 04772 9997 +008 +008 212038 040 /// /// 03
225730 2904N 09002W 5692 04788 0000 +005 //// 203031 039 /// /// 05
225800 2902N 09000W 5702 04764 9983 +010 -003 214040 045 /// /// 03
225830 2901N 08958W 5701 04760 9984 +010 -004 213035 039 /// /// 03
225900 2900N 08956W 5697 04771 9997 +009 +009 211021 033 /// /// 03
225930 2859N 08954W 5694 04767 0006 +010 +010 196013 019 /// /// 03
230000 2857N 08952W 5695 04770 0026 +009 +009 205006 010 /// /// 03
230030 2856N 08951W 5693 04781 0028 +006 //// 145018 027 /// /// 05
230100 2854N 08950W 5701 04761 0024 +008 //// 141026 028 /// /// 05
230130 2852N 08949W 5710 04742 0053 +012 //// 159033 036 /// /// 05
$$
;

[davidiowx]

North-northeast???????

[bella_may]

The mobile Nws has issued an extreme flood threat for much of southern Alabama and southeast Mississippi. Can't remember the last time I saw an "extreme" threat.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 202312
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 05 20170620
230200 2850N 08949W 5714 04737 0052 +015 +015 148027 035 /// /// 03
230230 2849N 08950W 5718 04741 0014 +002 //// 157033 038 /// /// 05
230300 2847N 08949W 5707 04751 9992 +006 //// 158037 039 /// /// 05
230330 2846N 08948W 5696 04772 9994 +007 //// 168034 035 /// /// 05
230400 2844N 08947W 5705 04755 9991 +003 -001 168038 041 /// /// 05
230430 2843N 08946W 5690 04777 0001 -002 -005 160027 034 /// /// 05
230500 2841N 08945W 5701 04762 9980 +012 -007 169031 032 /// /// 03
230530 2840N 08945W 5696 04770 9987 +010 -033 160026 031 /// /// 03
230600 2838N 08944W 5697 04766 9987 +012 -059 156023 023 /// /// 03
230630 2836N 08943W 5699 04769 9973 +018 -023 167022 023 /// /// 03
230700 2835N 08942W 5699 04767 9980 +016 -047 161020 021 /// /// 03
230730 2833N 08941W 5717 04748 9979 +018 -015 170021 023 /// /// 03
230800 2832N 08940W 5711 04750 9977 +015 -004 173020 022 /// /// 03
230830 2830N 08939W 5717 04743 9979 +016 -021 172022 023 /// /// 03
230900 2828N 08938W 5713 04749 9978 +017 -006 171022 024 /// /// 03
230930 2827N 08937W 5704 04758 9983 +015 -060 168020 022 /// /// 03
231000 2825N 08937W 5712 04743 9985 +015 -108 168020 021 /// /// 03
231030 2823N 08935W 5713 04748 9988 +015 -104 173022 023 /// /// 03
231100 2821N 08934W 5713 04742 9985 +015 -080 180024 025 /// /// 03
231130 2819N 08933W 5715 04742 9987 +012 -032 188026 027 /// /// 03
$$
;

[HurricaneBrain]

After landfall in SETX/SWLA.

:uarrow:

North-northeast???????

[southerngale]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
523 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Cindy has become somewhat stationary, meandering
over the central Gulf. THE storm is expected to resume a
northwest movement towards the southwest LA and upper southeast
TX coast tonight into wednesday. Rainbands associated with the
system have been streaming across south central Louisiana for much
of the day as well as across parts of central and southwest
LA this afternoon. Rain chances will continue to expand northwest
across the area overnight into Wednesday. The primary risks with
these rainbands will heavy rainfall and possible localized
flooding, as well as a few isolated tornadoes.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Tropical storm Cindy is forecast to move northwest toward
southeast TX and southwest LA tonight through Thursday, then move
inland Thursday night into Friday. The main impact for the area
will be the potential for flooding from excessive rainfall as well
as strong and gusty winds. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued
for portions of south central Louisiana for tonight as rain is
expected to continue overnight, gradually increasing in intensity.
The Watch extends to the remainder of the area Wednesday morning
as the heavier rainbands extend further northwest over the area.
The heaviest rainfall is anticipated from late Wednesday into
Thursday as the storm moves inland over southeast Texas, with 3 to
6 inches of rain possible areawide along with isolated amounts up
to 10 inches.

Sustained tropical storm force winds will begin to affect coastal
areas east of Cameron Wednesday morning, spreading north and west
through the day toward I-10 and lower southeast TX. Although winds
will begin to subside some as the system moves inland, gusts to
tropical force will still be possible as far inland as the lakes
region as well as portions of western LA. Thus, went ahead and
extended the Tropical Storm Warning further inland, and generally
west of Highway 165.

The other impacts of note will be the potential for minor coastal
flooding from Jefferson and Orange Counties east to Saint Mary
Parish, as well as isolated tornadoes within some of the
rainbands. While any significant storm surge is not anticipated,
inundation amounts of 1 to 3 feet can be expected.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
The remains of TS Cindy is expected to move into central Arkansas
during the day on Friday as the moisture plume follows behind the
storm. The upper level low will become elongated with the axis of
the trof hanging back across southeast Texas. Therefore looking at
rains to continue through the day on Friday with temps moderating a
bit from clouds and rains. Part of the upper level energy from the
trof will drift back to the south and into center coastal Texas
allowing the elongated weakness to continue. This will mean shower
and thunderstorm activity is expected over the weekend with an
additional two to three inches on top of the rainfall expected with
Cindy. The region looks to dry out slowly through next week.

19

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Storm Cindy has slowed and is meandering over the central
Gulf. The storms is expected to resume a northwest motion
overnight. Northeasterly winds will continue to strengthen over
the coastal waters tonight, with tropical storm force winds
spreading over the coastal waters east of Cameron by early
Wednesday morning. Likewise, seas will continue to build and
become increasingly rough. All marine interests should closely
monitor this system.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 72 83 74 84 / 20 70 80 80
LCH 74 84 77 84 / 40 90 90 80
LFT 72 82 76 84 / 70 90 90 80
BPT 74 84 76 84 / 30 90 90 80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ027-030-031-041>045-052>055-073-
074.

Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
evening for LAZ027>033-041>043-073-074.

Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ044-045-
052>055.

TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
evening for TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-
475.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 202323
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 06 20170620
231200 2817N 08932W 5715 04744 9984 +014 -040 186028 029 /// /// 03
231230 2815N 08931W 5713 04744 9977 +020 -096 188030 031 /// /// 03
231300 2813N 08930W 5714 04743 9974 +020 -079 193030 030 /// /// 03
231330 2810N 08929W 5717 04739 9974 +020 -068 199032 033 /// /// 03
231400 2808N 08927W 5713 04743 9967 +020 -000 199031 032 /// /// 03
231430 2806N 08926W 5717 04741 9971 +018 +006 195033 033 /// /// 03
231500 2804N 08925W 5724 04732 9973 +018 +009 197030 033 /// /// 03
231530 2802N 08924W 5929 04448 0016 +021 +013 181021 028 /// /// 05
231600 2800N 08923W 6188 04123 0022 +049 +019 169021 023 /// /// 03
231630 2758N 08922W 6419 03819 0013 +070 +033 172024 025 /// /// 03
231700 2756N 08921W 6622 03557 0012 +087 +039 173028 029 /// /// 03
231730 2754N 08920W 6829 03305 0013 +100 +053 174029 030 /// /// 03
231800 2752N 08919W 7037 03055 0009 +115 +065 176031 033 /// /// 03
231830 2750N 08917W 7241 02808 0007 +125 +095 178033 034 /// /// 03
231900 2748N 08916W 7436 02578 0011 +132 +117 176033 034 /// /// 03
231930 2747N 08916W 7641 02350 0011 +144 +131 176034 035 /// /// 03
232000 2745N 08915W 7891 02087 0022 +165 +130 172035 036 /// /// 03
232030 2743N 08914W 8117 01845 0025 +172 +135 160039 040 /// /// 03
232100 2741N 08913W 8270 01682 0024 +181 +142 158041 041 /// /// 03
232130 2740N 08912W 8404 01541 0021 +190 +146 161043 044 /// /// 03
$$
;

Descending now.

[KimmieLa]

Our local met went off the air with a tease that he would talk about in more detail later this evening but said he was getting concerned about this being stationary all day and drifting east this afternoon. Guess in the big scheme of things just could potentially mean more rain for certain areas.

Yep. I just listened to channel 9 and the met mentioned he was concerned, but he never elaborated. We are getting our first rain band coming through right now.

[Javlin]

Cyclonic loop looks to be almost complete, I'd expect Cindy to resume NW direction tonight http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

Looks like the short wave look from this site will make it easier to follow at night. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-07-24-1

Using the EDU site and the NHC http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html sure looks like the forward movement has increased as she went through the loop? just wondering is a another steering current at play?

Looks like the UUL is still entrenched http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html and if acceleration is taking place landfall at the Lake Charles maybe?if forward movement is indeed happening.

[Frank P]

Cyclonic loop looks to be almost complete, I'd expect Cindy to resume NW direction tonight http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-1

Looks like the short wave look from this site will make it easier to follow at night. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-07-24-1

Using the EDU site and the NHC http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html sure looks like the forward movement has increased as she went through the loop? just wondering is a another steering current at play?

Looks to be on the move to me heading NNW to NW best guess....

[Javlin]

The tilt sure is pointing in that direction Frank almost WNW now never seen a system go through an ULL,strange system.I got that feeling Frank GOM will be busy this year.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 202332
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 07 20170620
232200 2738N 08911W 8428 01516 0020 +194 +143 162044 045 /// /// 03
232230 2737N 08910W 8446 01498 0021 +195 +132 164044 045 /// /// 03
232300 2735N 08909W 8430 01512 0020 +193 +137 164043 044 038 000 03
232330 2734N 08909W 8426 01517 0022 +185 +156 166044 044 038 000 00
232400 2733N 08908W 8432 01508 0024 +181 +161 165044 045 037 000 00
232430 2731N 08907W 8437 01514 0030 +181 +159 163042 046 036 002 03
232500 2730N 08908W 8423 01519 0023 +184 +158 161043 043 033 000 00
232530 2729N 08909W 8429 01509 0022 +186 +155 159043 043 033 000 00
232600 2728N 08911W 8424 01518 0019 +189 +152 161042 043 035 000 00
232630 2726N 08912W 8424 01519 0019 +190 +154 159040 041 034 000 00
232700 2725N 08914W 8431 01509 0019 +189 +160 156038 039 035 000 00
232730 2724N 08915W 8430 01512 0019 +186 +163 155039 040 034 000 00
232800 2722N 08917W 8428 01511 0020 +185 +162 152043 043 034 000 00
232830 2721N 08919W 8432 01506 0019 +185 +168 153043 043 035 000 00
232900 2719N 08920W 8428 01508 0017 +182 +174 157043 044 034 000 00
232930 2718N 08922W 8435 01504 0018 +180 +176 159045 045 034 000 00
233000 2716N 08924W 8430 01508 0018 +180 +174 161045 046 034 001 00
233030 2715N 08925W 8426 01507 0014 +180 +179 159042 045 035 000 01
233100 2713N 08927W 8429 01506 0013 +180 +179 157042 042 035 001 01
233130 2712N 08929W 8442 01490 //// +181 //// 156041 043 034 001 01
$$
;

[Steve820]

Doppler radar is showing a large rainband associated with Cindy over the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. The storm itself is very disorganized still and won't strengthen much before landfall due to shear. Hopefully impacts won't be too severe

[jasons2k]

The shear and dry air is pretty incredible. The dry air is being persistent too, just not going anywhere.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 202342
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 08 20170620
233200 2711N 08930W 8428 01504 0013 +180 +176 158041 042 033 000 00
233230 2709N 08932W 8432 01500 0012 +182 +173 159042 043 033 000 00
233300 2708N 08933W 8429 01503 0011 +180 +175 157043 043 035 000 00
233330 2707N 08935W 8429 01504 0011 +180 +173 155043 044 033 000 00
233400 2705N 08936W 8429 01502 0009 +183 +174 155042 043 032 000 00
233430 2704N 08938W 8432 01498 0006 +189 +158 156043 043 032 000 00
233500 2702N 08940W 8429 01498 0006 +186 +157 154041 042 034 000 00
233530 2701N 08941W 8430 01494 0004 +183 +157 151041 043 034 000 00
233600 2700N 08943W 8432 01493 0001 +192 +135 154042 043 035 000 00
233630 2658N 08944W 8429 01496 9998 +192 +140 154041 043 032 000 00
233700 2657N 08946W 8429 01492 9998 +192 +137 152040 041 032 000 00
233730 2655N 08947W 8431 01491 9999 +191 +129 153039 040 031 000 00
233800 2654N 08949W 8430 01494 9998 +193 +126 157040 041 030 000 00
233830 2653N 08951W 8430 01491 9998 +190 +130 157040 041 030 000 00
233900 2651N 08952W 8428 01492 9998 +183 +157 157038 040 030 000 00
233930 2650N 08954W 8426 01494 //// +180 //// 155037 040 031 000 01
234000 2648N 08955W 8436 01485 9996 +182 +175 157037 037 032 000 01
234030 2647N 08957W 8433 01486 9995 +184 +174 158036 037 030 000 00
234100 2646N 08958W 8430 01487 9995 +180 +177 155036 037 029 000 01
234130 2644N 09000W 8432 01487 9994 +184 +175 157036 037 030 000 03
$$
;

[tolakram]

Gfs has been horrendous with this storm..euro looks right

Trend gifs, Euro 0z, 12Z and all GFS runs since June 13th.

Euro 0Z


Euro 12Z


GFS

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 202352
AF306 0303A CINDY HDOB 09 20170620
234200 2643N 09002W 8430 01486 9992 +187 +170 157037 037 029 000 00
234230 2641N 09003W 8429 01487 9989 +191 +170 159035 037 028 000 00
234300 2640N 09005W 8430 01487 9988 +190 +171 159034 035 030 000 00
234330 2639N 09006W 8429 01486 9987 +188 +183 158034 035 032 000 00
234400 2637N 09008W 8430 01483 9986 +188 +184 155035 036 032 001 00
234430 2636N 09009W 8429 01485 9985 +190 +179 153032 036 029 001 00
234500 2634N 09011W 8429 01482 9982 +193 +178 155031 032 028 000 00
234530 2633N 09013W 8429 01482 9979 +195 +178 157030 031 028 000 00
234600 2632N 09014W 8431 01478 9980 +193 +175 155029 032 027 000 00
234630 2630N 09016W 8429 01479 9977 +198 +166 158026 028 028 000 00
234700 2629N 09017W 8429 01478 9975 +199 +165 158024 026 026 000 00
234730 2627N 09019W 8435 01474 9972 +205 +167 154020 021 026 000 00
234800 2626N 09021W 8437 01468 9972 +200 +168 153021 022 025 000 00
234830 2626N 09023W 8430 01475 9969 +200 +166 153019 021 024 000 00
234900 2625N 09025W 8429 01472 9968 +200 +168 148016 019 022 000 00
234930 2624N 09027W 8429 01476 9968 +199 +172 140014 015 022 000 03
235000 2623N 09028W 8431 01470 9967 +200 +175 137011 013 020 000 00
235030 2622N 09030W 8429 01471 9966 +200 +174 134008 010 018 000 03
235100 2621N 09031W 8429 01472 9966 +200 +172 127007 007 017 000 00
235130 2619N 09033W 8437 01462 9966 +200 +170 122006 007 016 000 00
$$
;

[ROCK]

The shear and dry air is pretty incredible. The dry air is being persistent too, just not going anywhere.

I haven't seen Jeffs latest update. Of course I am not on his distribution. have you seen it?

[southerngale]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
700 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...CINDY STILL MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 90.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 90.3 West. Cindy has
been nearly stationary for the past several hours, but a
northwestward motion is expected to resume tonight and continue
through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest and then toward
the north is expected Wednesday night and early Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of
southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late Wednesday and Wednesday
night, and move inland over southeastern Texas on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected during the next 24
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center, mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6
inches can be expected farther west across southwest Louisiana into
southeast Texas through Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later tonight and spread westward
within the warning area through early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
possible along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight
from south-central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN