ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Updated ensembles graphic from StormGeo has 93 of 94 ensembles + operational runs included. Strongly points to Houston/Galveston.

Note that every single model got "Bret" right. A system trapped in the tradewinds moving at 20+ mph is easy to forecast. Heck, I'd even trust the NOGAPS for such a setup. Nowhere else it could go. Doesn't mean the GFS is right with this system.

[Wx_Warrior]

2 local mets hinting at "west shift" this evening....

[Wx_Warrior]

[Blinhart]

Not too often that you see a system pull moisture from both the EPAC and Atlantic Basin.

So if this system can wrap itself around, it can become a pretty big storm pretty quickly. I'm not saying a powerful system, but large in size.

[SunnyThoughts]

Everybody stay safe and dry. Saw weather channel earlier, 8 to 12 inches of rain from the panhandle of Fla over through Louisiana.

[tarheelprogrammer]

NAM coming in weaker, and joining us here in the real world.

Was 993 last run at hour 22. At 998 at hour 16 now.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm thinking that with AI advancing at the speed it is we will probably see dramatic improvement in the models over the next 10 years.

its not the "AI" its the amount of data required. fluid dynamics and associated math is well known and would suffice currently .. unfortunately to use it at a small scale ( and build up the those interaction) which is required to be as close to perfect as possible the amount of data would take all the computers and servers in the world and still would likely not be enough. so we are stuck with learning patterns and truncating building off old data etc.

will take a huge leap in data storage to do it "by the numbers"

[Steve]

Effects are beginning as there are several flash flood warnings for interior southern Mississippi from an arc over by Meridan past Laurel and then just north and west of Hattiesburg and over to Columbia. That's just a band that set up and trained across those areas which received 2-4" of rainfall. That's not really all that much considering what's coming. Not a drop of rain here in New Orleans so far. It's a little breezy and muggy. Clouds are starting to thicken up, but nada here so far. I'm expecting some of the rainshield to start overspreading sometime tomorrow morning or early afternoon.

[Steve]

2 local mets hinting at "west shift" this evening....

Maybe a bit on the track, but it shouldn't surprise anyone. I hate teaser features whether they are tweeted or even early in a news broadcast. Just freaking come out and say what you gotta say.

[Aric Dunn]

Using Goes 16 Band 7 "Shortwave Window" You can still see the primary eddies(looks like 2) moving west.. quite interesting.

still finishing the cyclonic loop and the always fun to watch .. Fujiwara effect

[NDG]

Not too often that you see a system pull moisture from both the EPAC and Atlantic Basin.

So if this system can wrap itself around, it can become a pretty big storm pretty quickly. I'm not saying a powerful system, but large in size.

This system is already a big storm in size, shear is what is going to keep in check from getting too strong. IMO.

[psyclone]

there's some really heavy rain passing west of peninsular florida heading for the panhandle if it holds together.

[Steve]

NAM coming in weaker, and joining us here in the real world.

Was 993 last run at hour 22. At 998 at hour 16 now.

Out to 24. After a reverse N shaped jump, It makes another cyclonic loop and is now at 995mb. Now 993 at 27.

[ronyan]

Aric, I'm aware of the data storage requirement. I should have phrased it more along the lines of AI assisting with forecasting when the models diverge.

I'm sure that you're aware that we are no where close to the physical limits in terms of data storage. But that will take longer than 10 years to fully realize.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

When it comes to the NAM, I'm reminded of Master Yoda's quote from Star Wars: The Empire Strikes Back.

"Use the NAM as guidance for TC genesis and path, you should not."

Or something like that

[HurricaneBrain]

NAM has pressure down to 989-990 at 33 hours.

[ROCK]

NAM also more west...but it's the NAM..entertainment purposes only..

[Steve]

It busts out another loop between 30 and 39 hours. That makes 3 including the one #3 is doing now. At 991mb 39 hours. The problem with those loops is that training can get really bad. The system isn't steadily moving in 'x' direction. It loops, so if you are under something, you could stay under it for a while.

And yo Kyle,

I totally agree. But it's the only game in town at 9:00 and hasn't exactly been doing terrible. It's been mostly an Upper Texas Coast solution since it's been within the 84 hour range of landfall.

[NDG]

Cool images below showing both Euro and GFS trend towards each other

[Steve]

It cut NW at the end last time, but this run looks like almost landfall at 48 hours 989(? old eyes can't quite see the pressure) right at the Sabine River or Texas/Louisiana border. Maybe another 3-4 more hours unless it stalls or tries to loop again.