ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[pcolaman]

With the system moving more to the sw, wouldn't that change the overall track ,let's say 48 to 60 hours back toward the n then NE according to the official track ? With the slow down and sw movements? Couldn't it then have time to become more of a threat to become a minor hurricane?

[wxman57]

The slower it moves now, the more time for the upper low over the NW Gulf to weaken and move west. That should allow for a more westward track to Texas. StormGeo tweeted one of their ensembles-based "TRAC" graphics. On the bottom left of the graphic are the 3 main models (GFS, CMC, ECMWF) and how many of each ensemble members are included. GFS has 20 + 1 operational, as does the CMC. Euro has 50 ensemble members, 1 control, and 1 operational. Total of 94 possible. Almost all 50 EC members plus the control and operational take it to Texas. GFS is all-in for Louisiana. UKMET has been taking it to Texas, too.

[jlauderdal]

we are off to a great start with the modeling

Yep! Hard to believe we're in 2017.

interesting to see the gfs and euro consistently see the atmosphere so differently and thus come up with differing solutions even at 72h and thus we cant really be confident with either, gfs gets alot of shade here but it gets its fair share of wins..even as matthew was on the approach to the se coast last year it was touch and go as to which model would provide something we could trust

[ronyan]

If the 18z GFS verifies there will be quite a lot of rain in SE TX. TVCN consensus is very close to the border so it can go either way in terms of which state has official landfall.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[pcolaman]

So it went stationary over the central Gulf?

[Hammy]

we are off to a great start with the modeling

Yep! Hard to believe we're in 2017.

interesting to see the gfs and euro consistently see the atmosphere so differently and thus come up with differing solutions even at 72h and thus we cant really be confident with either, gfs gets alot of shade here but it gets its fair share of wins..even as matthew was on the approach to the se coast last year it was touch and go as to which model would provide something we could trust

One question on the model accuracy--if we can get a single consolidated center form, would that help bring about some sort of consensus with the models? Or are issues in how they're interpreting the steering itself still the cause of the divide?

[pcolaman]

To me it look like the little Jetties got blown out

[tolakram]

we are off to a great start with the modeling

Yep! Hard to believe we're in 2017.

NHC not having an issue forecasting, so far. They also tend not to hug models because the consensus almost always does better. Also keep in mind that both models have been struggling at the 500mb layer, with the GFS actually doing better than the euro every now and then. We discussed this with a few posts and tweets in the global model run thread.

If the GFS gets the upper air right then it will tend to have the better track, in my amateur opinion anyway. Since both are experiencing accuracy errors the blend between the two is the best bet.

Here is the latest free verification graph from Weatherbell. http://models.weatherbell.com/verf/ecmwf_gfs_nh_f120.png

[RL3AO]

You guys realize the models get better year after year, right?

[BobHarlem]

Are folks effectively wobble watching a non-even tropical cyclone? Look at the water vapor, wide view, everything is to the east of the system. Landfall won't matter much with this system, and trying to make sense of any center right now is going to drive folks mad.

 https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/876920644474195968

[ROCK]

Nice little bitty tstorm popped right over the exposed LLC at sunset. Looks ten times better then earlier today.

[jlauderdal]

Yep! Hard to believe we're in 2017.

interesting to see the gfs and euro consistently see the atmosphere so differently and thus come up with differing solutions even at 72h and thus we cant really be confident with either, gfs gets alot of shade here but it gets its fair share of wins..even as matthew was on the approach to the se coast last year it was touch and go as to which model would provide something we could trust

One question on the model accuracy--if we can get a single consolidated center form, would that help bring about some sort of consensus with the models? Or are issues in how they're interpreting the steering itself still the cause of the divide?

the more developed the system the better the accuracy but getting to that point has proven to be real tricky...intensity forecasting remains a mystery but it continues to improve...overall the models improve with time but its been a very tough road and considering the revisions in the code and the resources invested you would think the two models would be in better agreement early on in the life cycle of these systems

[jlauderdal]

You guys realize the models get better year after year, right?

yes they are getting better but to me the real issue is how differently the solutions are with each run and even within a given model we see some large scale differences run to run...the atmosphere is very dynamic but 6 or 12 hours later we see really large track differences, thats not good

[TJRE]

rgb screen shot for estimated center location as of 7:15 pm EDT -imho
a good bit west if i am correct with this location

run the loop here
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
click on the forecast pts from the menu

In any event ...we now have a real nice band on the northwest side of the system

[stormreader]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Storms beginning to cover center.

[jlauderdal]

Are folks effectively wobble watching a non-even tropical cyclone? Look at the water vapor, wide view, everything is to the east of the system. Landfall won't matter much with this system, and trying to make sense of any center right now is going to drive folks mad.

 https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/876920644474195968

well now that we can get watches and warnings without a named system the wobble watching will become even more intense early on...have fun watching a wobble without a center, haha

[RL3AO]

I dug back into the Models thread and found some model runs from 10 days ago that were for tonight or tomorrow morning.

GFS - 10 days ago - Forecast for 6z tomorrow



Euro 10 days ago - Forecast for 0z (aka right about now)

[ROCK]

You guys realize the models get better year after year, right?

yes they are getting better but to me the real issue is how differently the solutions are with each run and even within a given model we see some large scale differences run to run...the atmosphere is very dynamic but 6 or 12 hours later we see really large track differences, thats not good

we cant have model agreement...where is the fun with that? We wouldn't have a 2K if the ALL the models were 100% correct....

[tolakram]

Horrible performance.

I wonder how that corresponds to the 500mb verification?

Copy of the freely available verification graphic.