ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Follow the recon mission here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118776&p=2584113#p2584113

[Aric Dunn]

cyclonic loop nearly complete and the second vort has been expanding and becoming more defined. with more defined cloud lines Expect a pretty good burst of convection with it as it appears to be absorbing both the smaller vorts

[cycloneye]

[stormreader]

Thanks for the color on that. I don't really trust any model on intensification, but I figured that 18 hour runs ought to be pretty close. I guess not then at least with this model

The HRRR is really designed to forecast thunderstorms and severe weather across the continental US. That's where the value comes from. There is no evidence to support that it does or should have any skill with tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.[/quote

Well, I'll be glad when we find something that does demonstrate skill with tropical intensity forecasts! (Smiling)

[Airboy]

Sorry if it's a bit off topic, but is this " PTC" (Potential Tropical Cyclone) something new for this season? Never heard NHC useing that label before?

[wxman22]

I wouldn't bet the farm that there wont be any flooding issues where the center is located, i think its those to the west of the center that may end up mostly dry, examples would be tropical storm Frances (1998) and tropical storm Allison both storms were lopsided but there was still major flooding even where the center was located.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 191904
AF305 01AAA INVEST HDOB 05 20170619
185400 2755N 09002W 3923 07716 0395 -185 -408 190025 025 /// /// 03
185430 2753N 09002W 3926 07710 0395 -185 -315 191025 025 /// /// 03
185500 2751N 09002W 3930 07705 0397 -184 -369 187026 026 /// /// 03
185530 2749N 09002W 3926 07711 0396 -182 -438 186026 027 /// /// 03
185600 2746N 09002W 3926 07709 0395 -180 -462 185026 026 /// /// 03
185630 2744N 09001W 3924 07714 0395 -181 -469 185026 026 /// /// 03
185700 2742N 09001W 3927 07706 0394 -183 -471 186026 026 /// /// 03
185730 2739N 09001W 3926 07711 0395 -179 -468 185025 026 /// /// 03
185800 2737N 09001W 3926 07710 0395 -175 -468 186026 026 /// /// 03
185830 2735N 09001W 3926 07712 0396 -175 -469 187026 026 /// /// 03
185900 2732N 09001W 3926 07711 0396 -175 -467 186027 028 /// /// 03
185930 2730N 09001W 3925 07713 0396 -178 -465 187026 027 /// /// 03
190000 2728N 09000W 3926 07712 0397 -175 -465 186028 029 /// /// 03
190030 2726N 09000W 3926 07711 0397 -175 -466 185029 030 /// /// 03
190100 2723N 09000W 3926 07712 0396 -175 -464 187029 030 /// /// 03
190130 2721N 09000W 3925 07713 0395 -175 -462 185028 029 /// /// 03
190200 2719N 09000W 3926 07710 0394 -175 -462 184029 029 /// /// 03
190230 2717N 09000W 3926 07712 0396 -175 -461 183028 029 /// /// 03
190300 2714N 09000W 3926 07710 0395 -176 -460 182028 028 /// /// 03
190330 2712N 09000W 3926 07711 0395 -175 -459 182028 029 /// /// 03
$$
;

[RL3AO]

Sorry if it's a bit off topic, but is this " PTC" (Potential Tropical Cyclone) something new for this season? Never heard NHC useing that label before?

Yes. It'll be used when a system is likely to develop and impact land within 48 hours. It allows advisories to start and watches/warnings to be issued before the system is officially a tropical cyclone.

[Yellow Evan]

Sorry if it's a bit off topic, but is this " PTC" (Potential Tropical Cyclone) something new for this season? Never heard NHC useing that label before?

Yes it is new.

[ronyan]

Sorry if it's a bit off topic, but is this " PTC" (Potential Tropical Cyclone) something new for this season? Never heard NHC useing that label before?

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/nhc-u ... e-atlantic

[Stormcenter]

Excuse me but I believe I was of the ones who called the Upper TX/SW LA. as a possible landfall over a week ago....who needs models.

Looks a little stronger this run, and a tad east.

Think that's getting very close now to where a couple of us thought last Fri-Sat might be the best bet. Upper Texas Coast or extreme SW La. Wouldn't be surprised at one more slight east move to the La-Tex border (Sabine River).

[cycloneye]

[sphelps8681]

Excuse me but I believe I was of the ones who called the Upper TX/SW LA. as a possible landfall over a week ago....who needs models.

Looks a little stronger this run, and a tad east.

Think that's getting very close now to where a couple of us thought last Fri-Sat might be the best bet. Upper Texas Coast or extreme SW La. Wouldn't be surprised at one more slight east move to the La-Tex border (Sabine River).

Were you the one that said split the difference? If so I remember that.

[Stormcenter]

Yes sir.

Excuse me but I believe I was of the ones who called the Upper TX/SW LA. as a possible landfall over a week ago....who needs models.

Think that's getting very close now to where a couple of us thought last Fri-Sat might be the best bet. Upper Texas Coast or extreme SW La. Wouldn't be surprised at one more slight east move to the La-Tex border (Sabine River).

Were you the one that said split the difference? If so I remember that.

[Tireman4]

Excuse me but I believe I was of the ones who called the Upper TX/SW LA. as a possible landfall over a week ago....who needs models.

Looks a little stronger this run, and a tad east.

Think that's getting very close now to where a couple of us thought last Fri-Sat might be the best bet. Upper Texas Coast or extreme SW La. Wouldn't be surprised at one more slight east move to the La-Tex border (Sabine River).

Well, my gracious...LOL

[GCANE]

TCFA posted

[cycloneye]

[Portastorm]

Excuse me but I believe I was of the ones who called the Upper TX/SW LA. as a possible landfall over a week ago....who needs models.

Looks a little stronger this run, and a tad east.

Think that's getting very close now to where a couple of us thought last Fri-Sat might be the best bet. Upper Texas Coast or extreme SW La. Wouldn't be surprised at one more slight east move to the La-Tex border (Sabine River).

I must have missed the part where an actual center of circulation was identified by the NHC and said center made landfall.

[Stormcenter]

Of course that's only assuming it would develop and actually make landfall there, I'm sure now after saying all that it probably won't.

Excuse me but I believe I was of the ones who called the Upper TX/SW LA. as a possible landfall over a week ago....who needs models.

Think that's getting very close now to where a couple of us thought last Fri-Sat might be the best bet. Upper Texas Coast or extreme SW La. Wouldn't be surprised at one more slight east move to the La-Tex border (Sabine River).

I must have missed the part where an actual center of circulation was identified by the NHC and said center made landfall.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 191924
AF305 01AAA INVEST HDOB 07 20170619
191400 2624N 08957W 3926 07709 0394 -170 -472 187021 021 /// /// 03
191430 2622N 08957W 3926 07709 0393 -170 -485 191020 020 /// /// 03
191500 2620N 08957W 3927 07706 0393 -168 -483 191020 020 /// /// 03
191530 2617N 08956W 3926 07708 0392 -169 -477 194020 020 /// /// 03
191600 2615N 08956W 3926 07707 0392 -167 -470 197019 020 /// /// 03
191630 2612N 08956W 3926 07707 0392 -169 -466 197018 019 /// /// 03
191700 2610N 08956W 3926 07705 0391 -170 -462 194019 019 /// /// 03
191730 2608N 08956W 3925 07709 0391 -170 -459 196018 019 /// /// 03
191800 2605N 08956W 3926 07707 0392 -169 -457 200018 018 /// /// 03
191830 2603N 08956W 3926 07707 0393 -170 -455 201018 018 /// /// 03
191900 2601N 08955W 3923 07707 0387 -165 -454 206019 019 /// /// 03
191930 2558N 08955W 3922 07709 0386 -165 -452 206020 020 /// /// 03
192000 2556N 08955W 3922 07708 0388 -165 -451 205019 020 /// /// 03
192030 2553N 08955W 3926 07704 0390 -170 -451 203018 019 /// /// 03
192100 2551N 08955W 3926 07705 0390 -170 -450 204017 018 /// /// 03
192130 2549N 08955W 3926 07705 0390 -170 -449 205016 017 /// /// 03
192200 2546N 08955W 3926 07706 0391 -170 -448 202016 016 /// /// 03
192230 2544N 08955W 3927 07705 0392 -165 -448 205016 016 /// /// 03
192300 2541N 08954W 3926 07709 0392 -168 -447 201016 016 /// /// 03
192330 2539N 08954W 3926 07710 0393 -165 -446 203016 016 /// /// 03
$$