ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Starting to see a Theta-E ridge build north of the naked swirl.

You're kidding... what a mess this storm is.

[ROCK]

looking better now than before...typical June type system...

[ROCK]

GFS taking its time on its westward swing... CMC done a complete about face also. 12Z NAM into Freeport also.

[Tireman4]

looking better now than before...typical June type system...

Agreed..this will S...L...O...W...L...Y develop

[Steve]

Starting to see a Theta-E ridge build north of the naked swirl.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

on Funktop, you can see what is either convection on the northern end of a forming center or possibly just a rotating one. Some of the models basically just form the center of circulation in the northern part of the Trough Axis once it pops. That was supposed to be 15 hours from last night's runs so maybe sometime this afternoon. Not sure if that's a transient feature or the beginnings of where the eventual real center will form (assuming one does).

[Janie2006]

Righty-o. Back in the saddle, eh mates?

I'm *not* a fan of the GFS this morning since more rain isn't at all what we need. Still waiting for a center to form before calling that one, though. In any case, typical June sort of thing, really. It certainly does not appear to be anything like Audrey, for instance. Blobby mess at the moment, but someone will indeed get creamed with a lot of rain.

[Stormcenter]

Maybe all models should be put out of their misery.....none have done well with this feature.

[Aric Dunn]

another vort is about to pop out.. lol

[Ivanhater]

Yep..north central gulf coast still looks to take the "brunt" of this lopsided system.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The spin just north of the Yucatan seems to be wrapping up a bit. Another eddy just popped out. Seems to be at the mid levels. Its possible that shear is decreasing and the system is fighting it. 12 hours from now, could be a different looking system.

I feel like once it has convection near the 'center,' they will start taking this system more seriously. Im worried that if the shear dissapates quickly, it could really intensify quickly.

[Kingarabian]

996mb into the Houston area per the 00z Euro Parallel

[Hammy]

Maybe all models should be put out of their misery.....none have done well with this feature.

At this point just pick a track none of them show and that'll be the most likely.

[GCANE]

Starting to see a Theta-E ridge build north of the naked swirl.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

on Funktop, you can see what is either convection on the northern end of a forming center or possibly just a rotating one. Some of the models basically just form the center of circulation in the northern part of the Trough Axis once it pops. That was supposed to be 15 hours from last night's runs so maybe sometime this afternoon. Not sure if that's a transient feature or the beginnings of where the eventual real center will form (assuming one does).

Theta-E is gradually increasing in the whole area aound the naked swirl now. The eddy is moving into an inceasingly favorable environment for convection to fire off.

[Stormcenter]

Say what you want about 93L but it is definitely looking better on satellite.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

[tolakram]

Euro-P makes this quite a decent looking storm (998mb) in the central gulf before it weakens and then makes landfall near Houston at 1002mb. This is the NW, then W, then NW zigzag movement to get to Houston.

[galvestontx]

I say from Matagorda to Tex/Lou border a pretty good assumption where this mess ends up?

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/876854870418087936

[Aric Dunn]

looks like its about to do a big cyclonic loop and that convection is starting to bend back to the nw which would allow the center to tuck back under the convection.

[tolakram]

latest.

[stormreader]

12z GFS-para

Can't believe that is going to be the new GFS. This should be a good test to see how good that model is.

Finally, the GFS is getting over to the western GOM where other models have been for days. At least we're getting some consensus for upper Texas coast or extreme SW La. Looks to be a solid tropical storm (although intensification just before landfall can't be ruled out). This should not have been so difficult for the GFS. Climo strongly suggests western Gom. A track to eastern Gom in June can occur, but you've got to have clear evidence of weakness in upper levels. Evidence such that mets can clearly see and explain in advance. Without that you're much better off allowing for the normal climo track toward West Gom.