ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

18z gfs giving AL and NW FL a hammering

[gatorcane]

Might the mighty ECMWF get this wrong in the end? GFS insists this goes into the Northern Gulf. Though to be fair, the GFS has been trending more west over the past week

[NDG]

Another view

Nice moisture pull from the EPAC.

[weatherguy425]

Might the mighty ECMWF get this wrong in the end? GFS insists this goes into the Northern Gulf. Though to be fair, the GFS has been trending more west over the past week

As subtle, but steady shift westward continues. LOL. That said, there are so many factors here, each hard to be resolved in their own right, let alone in conjunction with one-another. Lots of uncertainty, but today featured a large shift westward by the GFS. West Gulf ULL's influence has increased per latest GFS cycles.

[South Texas Storms]

Might the mighty ECMWF get this wrong in the end? GFS insists this goes into the Northern Gulf. Though to be fair, the GFS has been trending more west over the past week

The past 3 runs of the GFS have shifted well west. Trending closer to the Canadian and Euro and it will likely continue to shift west over the next several runs.

[Florida1118]

Might the mighty ECMWF get this wrong in the end? GFS insists this goes into the Northern Gulf. Though to be fair, the GFS has been trending more west over the past week

I feel like it's safe to say (and thus put it to rest) neither major model was ultimately "correct" in this scenario. The Euro and the GFS had periods where they dropped development, moved several hundred miles, and varied on their strength - both the operational and their para's. The GFS appears to have done well on having a modest TS in the Gulf, while the Euro appears to have done well with having this storm be on a more westerly trajectory. This storm is just one of the now seemingly endless reminders that no model is "king", and that a blend of modeling and observations is what's best for sound forecasting.

[tailgater]

I can see a small twist just west of the tip of Cuba in the straits. looks to be headed west ATM. Probably not the last one to form through.
Just north of your circle A.D.

[stormlover2013]

Ukmet, Euro, and nam have been consistent, gfs has been struggling

[psyclone]

93L is already influencing Florida weather with deeper moisture resulting in more numerous storms today. In addition, we can now see a long, curved band coming up through the Keys. Forward motion is also faster than normal Summer convection with the special marine warning out of Key West indicating a forward motion of 35kt.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Anybody claiming any model has been consistent hasn't been paying close attention. The Euro was in the southern Bay of Campeche for days. The UKMET only recently began developing the storm. The GFS also began in the Bay of Campeche but has been in the northeastern Gulf for days now. The CMC started out in the northeastern Gulf but has shifted west recently. They've all been poor, but in the short term the GFS is leading the way.

[RL3AO]

A reminder that posts in the model thread should mostly include model information or a well thought out post about some model information. Try to keep the one-liners to a minimum. The entire previous page did not have a single image on it. This makes it difficult for people to come back to the thread after being away and catch up.

[Bocadude85]

Ukmet, Euro, and nam have been consistent, gfs has been struggling

The 0z run of the Euro on June 16th never showed 93L getting out of the BOC. Two days later the Euro is showing Southern Texas..that's hundreds of miles farther north, I wouldn't call that consistent. The GFS hasn't been much better either.

[robbielyn]

indeed our weather here in Tampa being influenced by 93L. we had a strong TS with gusty winds and torrential rains.

[Hammy]

Latest NAM has a subtropical appearance with an ULL not too far to the SW in 60H.

[floridasun78]

ok my weather man here miami say a Trough moving by gulf could send 93l more toward Florida even south fl because Trough will pull it north so key system is Trough coming into gulf he could cut into cuba move by keywest

[floridasun78]

other thing we need watch is Trough now coming into gulf that may pull it away from LA and Texas

[Steve]

ok my weather man here miami say a Trough moving by gulf could send 93l more toward Florida even south fl because Trough will pull it north so key system is Trough coming into gulf he could cut into cuba move by keywest

That was the GFS's idea but now it's moved farther over. GFDL-P is about Baldwin County and is the farthest east of the semi-legit models. I think it's always been a possibility, but apparently the push from that high in the East is strong enough that it's going to move it westerly and not allow an alley between the high behind the front and the Atlantic High nosing for a way out. I don't know for sure. I think Florida gets a bunch of rain the next day and a half and then probably AL/MS/LA along the way depending on how far north it can get. I think anything north of 27.5 (and maybe even 27) should be enough to stream in feeder moisture and bands.

It's weird because even though this probably doesn't get super strong (I'd think Cat 1 would be upper extreme the way things look now), this is one of those systems that is not going to give people a lot of time to prepare for the side-effects if they don't already know what's up.

[floridasun78]

if you look at Gulf Of Mexico - Water Vapor Loop you see Trough migddle of gulf unless move out no way this will move west or north west only place can go north or NE

[mcheer23]

if you look at Gulf Of Mexico - Water Vapor Loop you see Trough migddle of gulf unless move out no way this will move west or north west only place can go north or NE

It's supposed to retreat to the SW.

[hriverajr]

It appears that the trough in gulf is beginning to move wsw after an earlier stall today