ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

96 is just off the tip of Brownsville. That's a slight north from 72 but with the time gaps, it's hard to say how.

[GCANE]

That cell I circled earlier, just east of the LLC, continues to slowly develop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 181330.jpg

[RL3AO]

The goes-16 data is pretty remarkable. Close up vis shows MLC is not working down to surface, yet.

Where is everyone getting the goes 16 loops and stuff ?

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

People have been using a screen capture software to create gifs.

I will note that it's far enough north now to use the GOM sector from College of Dupage.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-0

[TexasSam]

The goes-16 data is pretty remarkable. Close up vis shows MLC is not working down to surface, yet.

Where is everyone getting the goes 16 loops and stuff ?

I get mine here https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES

[Aric Dunn]

The goes-16 data is pretty remarkable. Close up vis shows MLC is not working down to surface, yet.

Where is everyone getting the goes 16 loops and stuff ?

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

People have been using a screen capture software to create gifs.

I will note that it's far enough north now to use the GOM sector from College of Dupage.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=gulf-02-24-0

ok yeah. thats all I have too as for interactive. not much else yet. cant wait till SSD has it.

[RL3AO]

Heres a visible loop from College of Dupage.

Warning: Over 15MB. Be careful opening if on data network.
http://i.imgur.com/9wTrAiA.gifv

[Aric Dunn]

THe broad turning near the land is very very weak and there are clear and very evident sea breeze boundaries over land so the circ could develop literally anywhere any deep convection can develop.

[NDG]

Then a northerly track towards the upper coast of TX.

Edit: Matagorda Bay.

[Kingarabian]

The main vorticity is inland over Texas @ 120hrs. This run is weaker compared to the previous runs. Similar to the Euro Parallel.

[HurricaneBrain]

Ball of convection, strongest winds continues well east of the oblong surface low just east of the Yucatan.

[HurricaneBrain]

[tropicwatch]

Conditions above 93L are becoming very favorable.

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/876507562451054594




Showing how the outflow of 93L will amplify the trough in the Caribbean, which will eventually shear 92L to pieces.

[Aric Dunn]

That cell I circled earlier, just east of the LLC, continues to slowly develop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 181330.jpg

http://i67.tinypic.com/xbctw7.png

That area of convergence has some clear westerly inflow in the lower CU cloud deck on the western side with southerly on the east side. that entire lobe is rotating to the NNE. if the convection can maintain then as it rotates towards the north side of the gyre it will reach a maximum area of vorticity and the NE side pressure gradient and wind field would increase possibly helping a more defined LLC or vort to develop. will be interesting to watch .

[tropicwatch]

Getting kind of impressive looking for early stages of development.

[Nederlander]

Looking better on satellite. Convection is trying to fire off near the mid level circ. Definitely looks like a developing system trying to get its act together

[Hurricane Andrew]

In my unprofessional opinion, this all depends on whether or not, and how fast, any developing LLC can be drawn under the potent MLC visible on satellite. If 93L can do this quickly, she may consolidate fairly rapidly over the next 24 hours and perhaps be classifiable; if not, she will likely stream generally north and/or west in a disorganized fashion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[gatorcane]

Strongest 850mb vort well NE of the broad low near Yucatán. Looks like the GFS idea of a new vort forming off to NE is materializing

[tropicwatch]

In my unprofessional opinion, this all depends on whether or not, and how fast, any developing LLC can be drawn under the potent MLC visible on satellite. If 93L can do this quickly, she may consolidate fairly rapidly over the next 24 hours and perhaps be classifiable; if not, she will likely stream generally north and/or west in a disorganized fashion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

The MLC is even impressive on the AVN color loop.

[South Texas Storms]

It actually looks like the 12z NAM has a good handle on how things are progressing so far this afternoon.

And the end of that model run actually looks quite reasonable as well. Interested to see how well it does.