ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AJC3]

In the last couple of frames, could that be something trying to curl up in the center of the convection? If so, it will be very interesting to see what recon finds later today, fingers crossed that they do go out!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/flash-vis-long.html

While that is indeed a vortex, it's a MCV embedded within the mid/high cloud canopy, and most likely not coincident with any surface circulation. It's more likely that it's displaced to the east of the wave axis and whatever broad surface low center there is out there.

[Ivanhater]

12Z GFS seems to be holding firm so far

[Steve]

They haven't been but EC has been demonstrably better in the 5 day most of this year. It's still not been anything remotely great. GFS out to 30 hours and is intensifying around a point roughly intersecting Pensacola and Brownsville on a N-NNW heading. Front is sweeping down at that point.

[CrazyC83]

There seems to be a consensus that slower = west, faster = east?

[caneman]

Yep, the only one that hasn't flip flopped. Doesn't mean it will be.right but at least it's consistent.

[TheStormExpert]

Invest 93L looks good looking at it on visible until you realize that the low pressure center is located well to the west of the big blob of convection. Any chance the low reforms directly underneath that deep convection?

[Steve]

48 hours due south of Mobile Bay at 1002 on GFS. 54 hours is just off the mouth of the MS River with the Panhandle having been pounded for a while at that point. 60 hours closer to Boothville and still intensifying at 1000mb. GFS when it switched to the FL Panhandle solution has been brining the system in with an easterly component. That should show up soon or else it's going to show it stalling or being pushed by the high nosing in from the Atlantic with a block to the north behind the front not far behind.

[gatorcane]

Latest GFS appears to have shifted west as the system approaches the northern Gulf coast.

[tailgater]

While that is an MLC, I could certainly see how it might swing around the Gyre until it gets to north of the Yucatan before becoming the more dominant Low. In fact I think that is what most of the models are showing us, just where it takes over and how soon is the difference in where it ends up going.

[psyclone]

That looks like a pretty good shift to the west by the GFS. NWS Tallahassee has been consistent in leaning on the Euro (with stay tuned caveats) in their discussions.

[hriverajr]

As to the eastern blob.. definitely an MCV. In fact cloud tops are warming just a bit. You can clearly see a loose circulation at the surface just on the eastern Yucatan shore. Also the upper trough in the western Gulf of Mexico appears to be moving slowly to the wsw.

[Steve]

Yes. 66 hours with a stall or loop still in the Gulf south of Venice. May begin to bend west or possibly loop there and hook one way or the other based on localized steering currents.

[caneman]

Maybe starting to get some agreement then?

[Steve]

78 hours moving into Grand Isle/Port Fouchon.

[ronyan]

12z GFS looks stalled south of NOLA. Huge SW shift in the position of this model vs the 0z.

[wxman57]

Wind at a buoy NW of the convection is from the SE at 15 kts. Winds southeast of that convection are also SE at 15 kts. Nothing in the lower levels there.

[Steve]

Should bring lots of coastal flooding but the rain and the wettest areas are off to the NE of the center down in South Georgia presumably from a piece of energy peeling off as 92L/Bret-by-then spins.

Very little movement (though west) between 66-90 hours. GFS may be too north too fast as compared to the other models, but it does bring the center up a bit East of the Yucatán.

Canadian should be out in a bit.

[Emmett_Brown]

Reminds me of the evolution of Hermine last year. Each day, she would fire up in impressive ball of convection way east of the surface low; her structure was severely tilted. Because of this, she took days to consolidate and develop. Therefore, I favor a more west solution like the Euro. The GFS seems to develop a center to the NE (perhaps in one of these MCS blowups).

[Ivanhater]

Still showing North central gulf coast as the target

[lrak]

Looks to me that some sort of Low is moving ashore in Northern Belize using the new visible satellite?


Forgot - Happy Farther's Day to all the Dads out there