ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/HurricaneCity/status/876380552848433152

[GCANE]

Will be interesting to see the next 24 hrs if the CoC and convection stack up.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 180545.jpg

200mb PV looks really good for development.
Its pretty clear the towers are punching through any mid-level shear and pushing it out of the way.
Probably best chance to strengthen may be tonight when the upper troposphere cools down.

[GCANE]

Appears the anti-cyclone is caught between the CoC and main convection.

[GCANE]

Splitting the difference between this morning's 00Z runs for Euro and COAMPS, it looks like Houston still under the gun.

[ronjon]

06z GFS para has a CAT 2 into Ft Walton Beach.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfsp&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017061806&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=234

[GCANE]

This puppy did really well overnight.
IR pretty close to being pegged out.
Very impressive for this early in the season.

Any towers that shoot thru this canopy at dawn could set this off for further intensification during the day.
Need to see how the day develops.

[GCANE]

Surface pressure recorded on the buoy east of Cozumel - pretty much speaks for itself.

[GCANE]

Very good feed of low-level moisture to work with.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

Wonder if recon is still a go today.

[gatorcane]

850mb vort south of Cuba has become more definded overnight. If this area becomes the dominant center, the GFS-based solutions of a FL panhandle hit could be real.

[ronjon]

Yeah GC, thats the vorticity GFS picking up - but shear is higher there and its north of the convective blob. With the heavy blowup of convection, wonder if a new low pressure will form underneath it?

[ronjon]

Upper level trough dropping south into western GOM...hard to see this system moving west with this set up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:60%-90%

A broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected while
it moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula later
today and over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and
Tuesday, where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands,
and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[tolakram]

This morning visible. I see a lot less shear than yesterday, but where would the center be?

[BobHarlem]

So far it looks like the GFS was on the right track.

[ronjon]

00z HWRF into Al/FL border area as 991 mb storm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2017061800-invest93l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[GCANE]

Didn't really see anything of note at DMAX.
These West Carib systems can be deceptive when they form.
Satellite can look impressive, but surface winds lag.

Keeping an eye on GOM air.
Seeing some decent 3500 CAPE ridges south of NOLA extending west.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track position is not under convection:

As of 12:00 UTC Jun 18, 2017:

Location: 18.0°N 87.3°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 240 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 180 N

[NDG]

This morning visible. I see a lot less shear than yesterday, but where would the center be?
http://i.imgur.com/82Sb6bq.gif

Very clearly the broad surface low is close to the coast of Yucatán P, where the lowest surface pressures are being reported this morning. The system is still being affected by some light westerly mid level shear. IMO.

[GCANE]

Nicely positioned relative to the Upper-Level Low at ~ 26N 56W.

Poleward outflow channel likely to develop especially if 93L starts moving north.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]