ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

GFS appears to take all the convection to the east of the low center, and slingshot that around with the low forming there rather than developing the existing low.

[NDG]

GFS appears to take all the convection to the east of the low center, and slingshot that around with the low forming there rather than developing the existing low.

In a way I wouldn't be surprised if this happens, if memory serves me correct a similar situation happened in 2013, TS Andrea, an LLC formed underneath a very tight vorticity away from the broader surface low which was along the northern Yucatan P coast.

[psyclone]

It'll be worth watching how this evolves. if the convection is displaced from the eventual center then it's likely the center will get tugged toward or reform in the convection...altering the eventual track over time. this happens a lot in the GOM and the net effect is usually a track more to the right than initially anticipated. Still believe the western solution which is hinted at in the WPC 7 day QPF.

[bamajammer4eva]

Rainfall swath from the GFS

[txwatcher91]

:uarrow: The recent Euro Op and Parallel runs reflect the same convection setup as the GTA. The main difference is that a high builds over.

Yeah they do but they don't appear to jump the center north like the GFS and CMC do, at least from the rough maps I have. The GFS did great last year with Matthew and the NAM has been ticking north each run closer to a GFS solution. Interestingly, the Euro has been struggling more than usual, along with the GFS, while the high res Euro has absolutely crashed per wxbell's verification scores.

[ROCK]

Always been partial to the EURO ever since it sniffed out IKE wayyy before any other gobal. When in doubt follow the EURO..the CMC and GFS will come around.

[South Texas Storms]

0z CMC with another shift west...now it has landfall in south central Louisiana in about 4 days.

[wxman22]

Actually the European model does develop the same area of convection it just builds the high in quicker and stronger than the GFS...

[Steve]

It looks like the CMC is a lot faster and doesn't get it tied up around the Yucatan like some of the western solution models do. I believe it's feeling the influence of the next front which is across the LA/AR border into N MS and AL. It's plausible. And it's too early to see what it does yet because my source for the run hasn't gotten that far yet. But I still think the odds are a little better for a western Gulf solution.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

Edit. Stall just off the LA Coast at 84 hours. Moving more to a western solution...

[WeatherEmperor]

Actually the European model does develop the same area of convection it just builds the high in quicker and stronger than the GFS...

And it will probably be correct. I have no science to back this up...but the NAO is forecast to be pretty positive the next few days and I remember in Talkin Tropics side people saying with a negative NAO there is more trofing but more ridging in positive NAO. This might be the biggest clue that the Euro is correct afterall. Any thoughts??




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[BobHarlem]

If the GFS (or CMC for that matter) verifies they'll need watches up tomorrow night to make the 48 hour mark (Or at the very least early Monday morning) I bet recon struggles tomorrow on top it all, so this may catch some folks off guard if it goes that direction.

[bamajammer4eva]

If the GFS (or CMC for that matter) verifies they'll need watches up tomorrow night to make the 48 hour mark (Or at the very least early Monday morning) I bet recon struggles tomorrow on top it all, so this may catch some folks off guard if it goes that direction.

This is true but would the NHC really do that for the first time on what the their reliable models say is supposed to be only a sloppy tropical storm at worst that is if it even forms?

[ROCK]

0z CMC with another shift west...now it has landfall in south central Louisiana in about 4 days.

Coming around... the 0z EIURO in about 4 hrs might help..

[South Texas Storms]

0z UKMET west into Texas once again.

[ROCK]

0z UKMET west into Texas once again.

Saw that..the UKMET which to be honest I am not a fan of (DR Masters is) been showing something similar for many runs now...what is tricky is any center relos once it clears the Yuc...

[NDG]

Always been partial to the EURO ever since it sniffed out IKE wayyy before any other gobal. When in doubt follow the EURO..the CMC and GFS will come around.

To be fair the Euro has not been that consistent, back in 2008 the Euro was no doubt the best but last few years it has had its struggles in its mid range forecast.

[Hammy]

Euro out to 48H is farther north and stronger.

[AtlanticWind]

Euro switching east

[AtlanticWind]

So far

[AtlanticWind]

Could be coming into agreement with gfs ,we will see