ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Dougiefresh]

are you surrise no plane plane go to 92l?

Not mentioned in Fridays TCPOD.Let's see if the Saturdays one has a mention.

Its still 2500 km away from the leeward islands that's alot of flying. Maybe on Sunday if it has shown more development.

[Yellow Evan]

SAB at 1.0

16/2345 UTC 6.1N 35.7W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic

[Hammy]

HWRF ironically doesn't seem to make this into much (keeping it open more often than not), even as most other models develop it.

[CrazyC83]

Even in peak season, a system this far south is very rare, let alone in June when tropical waves themselves rarely organise and consolidate in any part of the open Atlantic.

So the result is that 92L is double rare.

92L's low latitude is the only reason it's alive. It's far enough south that it's able to avoid significant dry air and shear.

Also being June the MDR is not conducive so something has to go below it. Reminds me in a way of some December and January WPAC storms that form at below 5 degrees latitude.

[Dylan]

I wonder if the monster tropical wave behind 92L is robbing energy from the disturbance.

[dexterlabio]

Looks like we're gonna see Bret very soon. Though is it rare for potential cyclones in the Atlantic to develop this far south? I remember Matthew last year also being a low rider, brushing the coast as far south as South America.

[cycloneye]

00z operational GFS has it down to 1000mbs in 54 hours.

[cycloneye]

998 mbs in 72 hours.



995mbs over TT.

[Hurricaneman]

Seems the wave behind could be a detriment to this system for the time being

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though the 0zGfs wants to make a run at being a hurricane but think this is going to take a bit of time because the wave behind is robing this system of moisture

[Alyono]

There's no wave behind this invest. That is merely convection at the base of the trough.

Not all convection is due to a tropical wave

[Alyono]

Seems the wave behind could be a detriment to this system for the time being

that's not a wave behind it. Merely convection at the base of the trough

[djones65]

What? That is NOT a tropical wave east of 92L?
What is it then? NHC is tracking a wave along 23W. What trough are you seeing instead of that wave?

[Alyono]

great way to track waves is to look at the TPW loops. Waves are usually associated with a TPW maximum

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

there may be a very low amplitude wave near 23W. However, that is EAST of the convection. The convection is at the base of the trough. The wave at 45W may be more of a detriment to this developing than the convection we see between 25 and 30W

[AutoPenalti]

998 mbs in 72 hours.



995mbs over TT.

Look how far south that is. Anything that can move this up? The Bermuda Ridge seems stout where it's at right now and I don't see any trough that can pick this up.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

HWRF ironically doesn't seem to make this into much (keeping it open more often than not), even as most other models develop it.

Now develops it into a moderate TS and shows landfall in Venezuela.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

There's no wave behind this invest. That is merely convection at the base of the trough.

Not all convection is due to a tropical wave

What are you thinking on this Alyono. I tend to think will start coming together from this point of time.

[Alyono]

There's no wave behind this invest. That is merely convection at the base of the trough.

Not all convection is due to a tropical wave

What are you thinking on this Alyono. I tend to think will start coming together from this point of time.

convection could produce a little bit of easterly shear if it gets too close, though this invest is moving quite quickly itself

[Alyono]

HWRF ironically doesn't seem to make this into much (keeping it open more often than not), even as most other models develop it.

Now develops it into a moderate TS and shows landfall in Venezuela.

Looks like this possible Bret wants to do what Bret did 24 years ago. Hopefully, this one is not as deadly

[Hammy]

Looks like it's getting stretched out within the monsoon trough.