ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

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Dougiefresh
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#101 Postby Dougiefresh » Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:are you surrise no plane plane go to 92l?


Not mentioned in Fridays TCPOD.Let's see if the Saturdays one has a mention.


Its still 2500 km away from the leeward islands that's alot of flying. Maybe on Sunday if it has shown more development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#102 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:58 pm

SAB at 1.0

16/2345 UTC 6.1N 35.7W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#103 Postby Hammy » Fri Jun 16, 2017 9:23 pm

HWRF ironically doesn't seem to make this into much (keeping it open more often than not), even as most other models develop it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#104 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jun 16, 2017 9:24 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Even in peak season, a system this far south is very rare, let alone in June when tropical waves themselves rarely organise and consolidate in any part of the open Atlantic.

So the result is that 92L is double rare. :eek:


92L's low latitude is the only reason it's alive. It's far enough south that it's able to avoid significant dry air and shear.


Also being June the MDR is not conducive so something has to go below it. Reminds me in a way of some December and January WPAC storms that form at below 5 degrees latitude.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#105 Postby Dylan » Fri Jun 16, 2017 9:26 pm

I wonder if the monster tropical wave behind 92L is robbing energy from the disturbance.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#106 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Jun 16, 2017 9:28 pm

Looks like we're gonna see Bret very soon. Though is it rare for potential cyclones in the Atlantic to develop this far south? I remember Matthew last year also being a low rider, brushing the coast as far south as South America.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#107 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:52 pm

00z operational GFS has it down to 1000mbs in 54 hours.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#108 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:58 pm

998 mbs in 72 hours.

Image

995mbs over TT.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#109 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:05 pm

Seems the wave behind could be a detriment to this system for the time being
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#110 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:09 pm

Looks as though the 0zGfs wants to make a run at being a hurricane but think this is going to take a bit of time because the wave behind is robing this system of moisture
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#111 Postby Alyono » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:15 pm

There's no wave behind this invest. That is merely convection at the base of the trough.

Not all convection is due to a tropical wave
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#112 Postby Alyono » Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:17 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Seems the wave behind could be a detriment to this system for the time being


that's not a wave behind it. Merely convection at the base of the trough
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#113 Postby djones65 » Sat Jun 17, 2017 12:58 am

What? That is NOT a tropical wave east of 92L?
What is it then? NHC is tracking a wave along 23W. What trough are you seeing instead of that wave?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#114 Postby Alyono » Sat Jun 17, 2017 1:06 am

great way to track waves is to look at the TPW loops. Waves are usually associated with a TPW maximum

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

there may be a very low amplitude wave near 23W. However, that is EAST of the convection. The convection is at the base of the trough. The wave at 45W may be more of a detriment to this developing than the convection we see between 25 and 30W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#115 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Jun 17, 2017 2:20 am

cycloneye wrote:998 mbs in 72 hours.

Image

995mbs over TT.

Image

Look how far south that is. Anything that can move this up? The Bermuda Ridge seems stout where it's at right now and I don't see any trough that can pick this up.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#116 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Sat Jun 17, 2017 2:58 am

Hammy wrote:HWRF ironically doesn't seem to make this into much (keeping it open more often than not), even as most other models develop it.


Now develops it into a moderate TS and shows landfall in Venezuela.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#117 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:42 am

Alyono wrote:There's no wave behind this invest. That is merely convection at the base of the trough.

Not all convection is due to a tropical wave


What are you thinking on this Alyono. I tend to think will start coming together from this point of time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#118 Postby Alyono » Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:46 am

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
Alyono wrote:There's no wave behind this invest. That is merely convection at the base of the trough.

Not all convection is due to a tropical wave


What are you thinking on this Alyono. I tend to think will start coming together from this point of time.


convection could produce a little bit of easterly shear if it gets too close, though this invest is moving quite quickly itself
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#119 Postby Alyono » Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:47 am

Vince_and_Grace_fan wrote:
Hammy wrote:HWRF ironically doesn't seem to make this into much (keeping it open more often than not), even as most other models develop it.


Now develops it into a moderate TS and shows landfall in Venezuela.

Image


Looks like this possible Bret wants to do what Bret did 24 years ago. Hopefully, this one is not as deadly
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#120 Postby Hammy » Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:42 am

Looks like it's getting stretched out within the monsoon trough.
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