Texas Summer 2017

[wxman22]

12z Euro is weaker with the system it shows it as a very broad area of low pressure, that stays a open wave or depression the interesting thing is that regardless it still brings the system to Texas/Mexico and still brings heavy rains into Southeast Texas next Thursday - Saturday with rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches across Southeast Texas fwiw.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS is still split between BOC into Mexico or into NC GC. Both options leave most of Texas with little rain over the next 10 days.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

In other news we continue to march into the solar minimum. At 42 days this year or roughly 1/4th of the year so far has been blank. Percentage wise the sun hasn't been as blank since 2009 during the last solar min.

Daily Sun: 13 Jun 17
The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 13 Jun 2017

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 4 days
2017 total: 42 days (25%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

This statistic is underrated as far as earth's weather. Id like to know how much more solar output is received on earth during sunspots though.

[weatherdude1108]

In other news we continue to march into the solar minimum. At 42 days this year or roughly 1/4th of the year so far has been blank. Percentage wise the sun hasn't been as blank since 2009 during the last solar min.

Daily Sun: 13 Jun 17
The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 13 Jun 2017

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 4 days
2017 total: 42 days (25%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

This statistic is underrated as far as earth's weather. Id like to know how much more solar output is received on earth during sunspots though.

How do lack of sunspots effect Texas weather patterns?

[Choateness_Finfrock]

Forgive me if this has already been discussed, but when can we expect to get some relief from this humidity in DFW?

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro is indicating a strong TS making landfall near Brownsville in 8 days bringing very heavy rainfall amounts to much of south and central Texas. SA and Austin get 5-10 inches this run!

[Brent]

Forgive me if this has already been discussed, but when can we expect to get some relief from this humidity in DFW?

October? I got back from NYC at midnight last night and immediately felt it exiting the airport...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

In other news we continue to march into the solar minimum. At 42 days this year or roughly 1/4th of the year so far has been blank. Percentage wise the sun hasn't been as blank since 2009 during the last solar min.

Daily Sun: 13 Jun 17
The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SDO/HMI

Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 13 Jun 2017

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 4 days
2017 total: 42 days (25%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)

This statistic is underrated as far as earth's weather. Id like to know how much more solar output is received on earth during sunspots though.

How do lack of sunspots effect Texas weather patterns?

The lack of sunspots during the Maunder Minimum lead many scientists to believe that led to the Little Ice Age in Europe and the global Temps falling for hundreds of years. There are also many other factors at play but sunspots play a key role in global climate.

2009 had a massive lack of sunspots and it was a generally cold winter for us. Again, you need so many different factors to create cold temps.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12z Euro is indicating a strong TS making landfall near Brownsville in 8 days bringing very heavy rainfall amounts to much of south and central Texas. SA and Austin get 5-10 inches this run!

Should we believe that run? It has it running straight into the HP in the SW.....

[weatherdude1108]

12z Euro is indicating a strong TS making landfall near Brownsville in 8 days bringing very heavy rainfall amounts to much of south and central Texas. SA and Austin get 5-10 inches this run!

Should we believe that run? It has it running straight into the HP in the SW.....

Is the Euro more reliable with tropical systems? Even though we have upper 90s/100s for the foreseeable forecast drying things out, rain is beautiful. But not sure if 5-10 inches can be soaked in, unless it's spread out over a week or so.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro is indicating a strong TS making landfall near Brownsville in 8 days bringing very heavy rainfall amounts to much of south and central Texas. SA and Austin get 5-10 inches this run!

Should we believe that run? It has it running straight into the HP in the SW.....

Yeah it's definitely possible.

No it actually has the high weakening if you look at the higher-res version (paid website).

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro is indicating a strong TS making landfall near Brownsville in 8 days bringing very heavy rainfall amounts to much of south and central Texas. SA and Austin get 5-10 inches this run!

Should we believe that run? It has it running straight into the HP in the SW.....

Is the Euro more reliable with tropical systems? Even though we have upper 90s/100s for the foreseeable forecast drying things out, rain is beautiful. But not sure if 5-10 inches can be soaked in, unless it's spread out over a week or so.

Yeah I rank the Euro 1st and the UKMET 2nd, and both of those models are indicating a tropical system moving into northern Mexico or deep south TX next week. It's still low confidence though...especially since the GFS and Canadian are indicating a track into Florida.

[Brent]

Should we believe that run? It has it running straight into the HP in the SW.....

Is the Euro more reliable with tropical systems? Even though we have upper 90s/100s for the foreseeable forecast drying things out, rain is beautiful. But not sure if 5-10 inches can be soaked in, unless it's spread out over a week or so.

Yeah I rank the Euro 1st and the UKMET 2nd, and both of those models are indicating a tropical system moving into northern Mexico or deep south TX next week. It's still low confidence though...especially since the GFS and Canadian are indicating a track into Florida.

Anyone else reminded of Debby? I just can't help but think the pattern isn't on our side(as much as I want to believe it).

[TeamPlayersBlue]

With my amateur knowledge, looks to be lots of shear from a ULL thats expected to be infront of it. I know this is expected to be a large 'Gyre' or circulation, but is it possible we get like a 55 MPH ugly one sided storm that battles lots of shear?

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro Para would make everyone along I35 happy, lots of rain for pretty much all of Texas. Far west and the Panhandle miss out but that is about it.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro Para would make everyone along I35 happy, lots of rain for pretty much all of Texas. Far west and the Panhandle miss out but that is about it.

On a related note, the Euro Weeklies are ugly! Hopefully, they are wrong again...

[Ntxw]

Meanwhile DFW may try to push 100 today and tomorrow! Might come a bit short but close.

[Ntxw]

Stay hydrated and crank up that AC! Annual heat towards the solstice..ugh summer electricity bills...worst time of the year..ever..EVER. To quote Tireman4

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
431 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

...Heat Advisory in Effect Today and Saturday...

.Hot and humid conditions will continue across the area through
Saturday, and a Heat Advisory is in effect for Wise, Denton,
Collin, Parker, Tarrant, Dallas and Rockwall Counties where heat
indices will approach 105 degrees during the afternoon.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose:

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

Friday, June 16, 2017 2:22 PM
​
A mostly sunny, dry and hot weather pattern is currently in place over Central and South Texas. This pattern is the result of a broad ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere that currently stretches from the coast of California to eastern Texas. Sinking air in the middle and upper atmosphere associated with the ridge is creating a very stable atmosphere across the region and little change is expected through the middle of next week. Friday morning's analysis showed the ridge centered over northern Mexico. Forecast solutions call for the center of the ridge to remain in its current position through Saturday, shifting north to the Four Corners region beginning Monday and continuing in that same general area through late next week.

With the ridge in place, the weather across Central and South Texas is forecast to continue dry and hot for the next several days. High temperatures today through next Wednesday are forecast to generally be in the upper 90s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions, and in the middle 90s across the coastal plains. Do note that some spots across the Hill Country and around Central Texas, including Austin, could reach 100-101 degrees on some of those days. However, widespread triple-digit temperatures are not expected. Low temperatures will be mostly in the mid-70s.

The combination of the hot temperatures and a high levels of moisture will cause afternoon heat index readings to be quite elevated. Areas along and east of Interstate 35 are forecast to see peak heat index readings around 105-108 degrees today and through the weekend.

Long-range forecast solutions indicate the current hot and dry pattern is going to be with us for a while. The center of the high pressure ridge is forecast to stay over the Four Corners region through at least late next week. With the ridge in this location, it will help steer the potential Gulf disturbance to the northwest. Beyond late next week, the models are not suggesting any significant changes. There are some hints at the development of a few scattered rain showers next weekend along with slightly lower temperatures. Highs temperatures the last week of June are forecast to generally be in the mid to upper 90s.

Tropical Weather Update

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center continue to monitor a large area of disturbed weather located over the western Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America where a large tropical wave is taking its time to organize. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system over the next two to three days as it moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula, reaching the southern and central Gulf of Mexico early next week.

The area of disturbed weather is forecast to take its time organizing today and through the weekend. Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center are giving this system only a 10 percent probability for development over the next 48 hours. However, NHC forecasters have raised the odds for development the first half of next week from 50 percent to 60 percent.

The best global models for tropical storm genesis have been in pretty good agreement for several days that the Western Caribbean wave will eventually become a tropical cyclone. Most of these models solutions call for the system to become a tropical depression by Wednesday, and roughly half bring the system to tropical storm strength. None of the models bring the system to hurricane strength, although this possibility cannot be ruled out just yet.

Where the system ends up, should it indeed develop, will hinge on the interaction early next week between an upper-level trough of low pressure moving through the eastern US and a very strong ridge of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest. If the trough moves more slowly, it will increase the odds of a landfall toward the central Gulf Coast between Louisiana and Florida. But a faster-moving trough could allow the high pressure ridge to steer the system toward the Texas or Mexican coast. Any landfall on the Gulf Coast would likely not be any sooner than midweek. Unfortunately, it's still too early to have a more definitive answer for the location of landfall. But a strike on the Texas coast is still a real possibility. The landfall forecast should become a little clearer over the 2-3 days. Stay tuned over the weekend for updates from the National Hurricane Center.

Cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. The National Hurricane Center states slow development is possible during the next few days as the wave moves westward at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic. On the 5-day tropical weather outlook map above, the system has the potential to reach the coast of Venezuela around the middle of next week.

First Day of Astronomical Summer

The summer solstice will occur this coming Tuesday, June 20th at 11:24 pm CDT, making Wednesday the first official day of summer. We are currently in the period of the year containing the shortest nights and longest days. Interestingly, we have already experienced our earliest sunrise with the sun now rising 1-2 minutes later than a week ago. Meanwhile, the latest sunset of the year is still coming up the last week of June through the first week of July.

Have a good weekend.

Bob

[Brent]

FWD seems convinced anything tropical is going to Mexico

We are still watching the Gulf for possible tropical development,
but based on the expected weather pattern, if any tropical storm
were to develop it should succumb to the influence of the upper
ridge and move westward into Mexico.