Northern Gulf of Mexico Disturbance

[lrak]

I was wondering what happen to you two welcome back Aric Dunn and drezee.....this thing moved a tad south now the BOC buoy is reading 1005mb

[Aric Dunn]

I was wondering what happen to you two welcome back Aric Dunn and drezee.....this thing moved a tad south now the BOC buoy is reading 1005mb

the off season I dont follow much. just watch the south pacific hear and there.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like it's back in the TWO, with 0%/0% of course.

[tolakram]

Higher rez Euro from Weatherbell shows a sloppy 1002MB low nearing La with 30kt (10 meter) winds before washing out as it skirts the coast heading toward Florida.

[tailgater]

Looks like it's combining with the developing low in the NW gulf, I sure hope this gets the hell outta here soon, I'm sick of all the rain. My yard is soaked.

[tolakram]

Not much left of the LLC and the higher rez euro no longer showing a clear area of low pressure.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-91&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=yellow

[TheStormExpert]

It's hard to believe that shear isn't above average for early June with what we saw with the remnants of Beatriz.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like it's combining with the developing low in the NW gulf, I sure hope this gets the hell outta here soon, I'm sick of all the rain. My yard is soaked.

We haven't had squat the past four days in Panama City. Looks like we might actually get some rain today, yea

[RL3AO]

It's hard to believe that shear isn't above average for early June with what we saw with the remnants of Beatriz.

]http://i68.tinypic.com/ojjfba.jpg[/img]

18 m/s is still a lot of shear! It also means that the GOM has to be well below average this time of year to support anything (sub)tropical.

[TheStormExpert]

It's hard to believe that shear isn't above average for early June with what we saw with the remnants of Beatriz.

]http://i68.tinypic.com/ojjfba.jpg[/img]

18 m/s is still a lot of shear! It also means that the GOM has to be well below average this time of year to support anything (sub)tropical.

So I guess compared to recent years like 2005, 2006, 2007, 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2016 it is higher.

[RL3AO]

It's hard to believe that shear isn't above average for early June with what we saw with the remnants of Beatriz.

]http://i68.tinypic.com/ojjfba.jpg[/img]

18 m/s is still a lot of shear! It also means that the GOM has to be well below average this time of year to support anything (sub)tropical.

So I guess compared to recent years like 2005, 2006, 2007, 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2016 it is higher.

Don't forget that those are climate averages. You can have an near or above average month for wind shear, but if you get a 2 or 3 day window of lighter shear at the right time, then you can get a storm.

[Aric Dunn]

A circ may end up developing near that deep convection dead center in the gulf. As the trough pushes south should be plenty of convergence. how tropical it will be who knows. but rain and some wind along west coast of florida is a sure thing,

[robbielyn]

A circ may end up developing near that deep convection dead center in the gulf. As the trough pushes south should be plenty of convergence. how tropical it will be who knows. but rain and some wind along west coast of florida is a sure thing,

when should it get to the west coast of fl Aric?

[Aric Dunn]

A circ may end up developing near that deep convection dead center in the gulf. As the trough pushes south should be plenty of convergence. how tropical it will be who knows. but rain and some wind along west coast of florida is a sure thing,

when should it get to the west coast of fl Aric?

i mean it technically wont make a difference. the effects will and would be the same as they are now.

[Taffy]

Let it rain and rain and rain. Our deficit of 7 inches in Lee County, Florida needs to be erased. <3

[tolakram]

0z Euro showed a little organization in the 0 to 72h range. Will the 12Z show the same?

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/872129432462532608




http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/lb13_img/gfs_realtime/pw_gfs_1h_0p25.php

[tolakram]

Visible loop
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=29&lon=-90&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=yellow

[tarheelprogrammer]

Water temps in the northern G.O.M are marginal at best correct?

[tropicwatch]

Water temps in the northern G.O.M are marginal at best correct?

Currently 80-81 degrees right now.