#9 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jun 01, 2017 8:34 am
Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:
Active weather pattern will remain in place over the next several days.
Short wave overnight that produce a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms is progressing east of the region with rainfall generally ending over the area as slightly drier air sweeps northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Main question is do we see any re development of showers and thunderstorms with heating this afternoon. Weak subsidence behind the short wave will be in place through much of the morning hours, but as temperatures rise into the upper 70’s to lower 80’s expect a few showers and thunderstorms to develop. Should we get more heating than expected thunderstorms could become more numerous.
Expect overall less coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Friday and possibly Saturday with rain chances in the 30-40% range.
New surge of tropical moisture will arrive into the TX coast late Saturday into Sunday as northern fringe of current TD-2E in the eastern Pacific spreads northward across the western Gulf and into TX. Additionally another upper level trough will be approaching from the west at this time yielding lift across the moistening air mass. Not seeing any surface boundary to help focus heavy thunderstorms, but will have to keep an eye on any outflow boundaries that may be lingering over the region. The upper trough is looking slower and slower in model guidance which will keep rain chances going now well into next week.
Main threat over the next several days will continue to be locally heavy rainfall with PWS hovering around 1.8-2.0 inches and at times slow storm motions which could yield a quick 1-2 inches of rain.
Gulf of Mexico:
Today marks the start of the 2017 Atlantic basin hurricane season. Current season predictors including the forecasted state of El Nino, sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic, and forecasted moisture and sea level pressures this summer over the basin suggest a near normal to above average number of named storms for 2017. Most of these indicators have been trending more favorable for an active hurricane season over the last two months.
Tropical depression 2E currently over the eastern Pacific Ocean just south of the Mexican coast is moving NE this morning and will make landfall along the coast later today. Mid and high level moisture from this system is already expanding NNE across the southern Gulf of Mexico and some of this moisture will be brought northward toward the US Gulf coast over the weekend. Additionally, global forecast models show some sort of mid level circulation from TD 2E arriving into the southern Gulf of Mexico early this weekend and have off and on shown the formation of a surface reflection over the western Gulf by late this weekend. With an upper trough approaching TX by Sunday upper level winds across the NW/W Gulf should generally be unfavorable for development, but there is at least some potential for a weak sheared tropical system to attempt to form this weekend or early next week across the western Gulf of Mexico.
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