BoB: CYCLONE MORA
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- doomhaMwx
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BoB: CYCLONE MORA
A disturbance over the Bay of Bengal has been designated as Invest 94B...
Models have been showing interest in this area for days now, and finally, we have something to monitor...
It could intensify further , probably a Tropical Storm at least, and make landfall either in Myanmar or Bangladesh within the remaining days of this month...
Except for the GFS which doesn't develop it much, the rest of the global models (ECMWF, GEM/CMC, NAVGEM) are intensifying this into a Tropical Storm...
(As of 05-24-17 12z):
ECMWF
GFS
GEM/CMC
NAVGEM
Models have been showing interest in this area for days now, and finally, we have something to monitor...
It could intensify further , probably a Tropical Storm at least, and make landfall either in Myanmar or Bangladesh within the remaining days of this month...
Except for the GFS which doesn't develop it much, the rest of the global models (ECMWF, GEM/CMC, NAVGEM) are intensifying this into a Tropical Storm...
(As of 05-24-17 12z):
ECMWF
GFS
GEM/CMC
NAVGEM
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- doomhaMwx
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Re: BoB: 94B INVEST
ASCAT pass over it yesterday, before designated as an Invest, showed a weak but defined LLCC near 10°N 90°E...
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Re: BoB: 94B INVEST
No doubts 94B is brewing in what looks to be ideal conditions. mjo/kw/er over the area
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- wxman57
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Re: BoB: 94B INVEST
No good ASCAT pass today. A 14Z pass should have picked up the eastern half, but it indicated no LLC. Interesting that IMD is saying ZERO chance of development next 72hrs. Their new outlook should be issued very shortly. JTWC says "no disturbances". Neither agency is inclined to mention something until it is nearly a storm.
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Re: BoB: 94B INVEST
there was an ASCATB from 1548 that showed a weak LLC near 12N, 88E. Winds were 10-15 kts
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmospher ... Bas208.png
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmospher ... Bas208.png
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- doomhaMwx
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Re: BoB: 94B INVEST
First mention by JTWC...
As of 26/0130Z
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.8N 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251544Z METOP-B ASCAT MICROWAVE IMAGE HAS A LACK OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT DISPLAYS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE INVEST AREA. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. OBSERVATIONS CLOSEST TO THE DISTURBANCE SHOW PRESSURE DECREASING ONLY 1MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, INDICATING VERY LITTLE DEEPENING OF THE DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ANTICIPATING A NORTHERLY TRACK WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 48- 72 HRS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
As of 26/0130Z
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.8N 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251544Z METOP-B ASCAT MICROWAVE IMAGE HAS A LACK OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT DISPLAYS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE INVEST AREA. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WEAK DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. OBSERVATIONS CLOSEST TO THE DISTURBANCE SHOW PRESSURE DECREASING ONLY 1MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, INDICATING VERY LITTLE DEEPENING OF THE DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ANTICIPATING A NORTHERLY TRACK WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 48- 72 HRS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: BoB: 94B INVEST
031
FXIO40 EGRR 260417
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.05.2017
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.9N 90.4E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.05.2017 13.9N 90.4E MODERATE
12UTC 27.05.2017 14.0N 90.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.05.2017 14.8N 91.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.05.2017 16.2N 92.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.05.2017 17.8N 92.6E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.05.2017 19.5N 93.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.05.2017 22.8N 92.8E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.05.2017 23.8N 94.5E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.05.2017 25.8N 96.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.05.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
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Re: BoB: 94B INVEST
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:031
FXIO40 EGRR 260417
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.05.2017
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.9N 90.4E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.05.2017 13.9N 90.4E MODERATE
12UTC 27.05.2017 14.0N 90.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.05.2017 14.8N 91.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.05.2017 16.2N 92.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.05.2017 17.8N 92.6E STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.05.2017 19.5N 93.1E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.05.2017 22.8N 92.8E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.05.2017 23.8N 94.5E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.05.2017 25.8N 96.0E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.05.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
where did you get that? What I was using last year no longer is available, and I only get Atlantic in my e-mail. I've been looking for a while
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Re: BoB: 94B INVEST
0Z EC has a sub 970mb cyclone right up the Ganges Delta
starting to get fearful as to how bad this will be
starting to get fearful as to how bad this will be
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Re: BoB: 94B INVEST
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... e/warnings
Its down near the bottom of the page under the heading Text guidance messages.
Its down near the bottom of the page under the heading Text guidance messages.
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- doomhaMwx
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Re: BoB: 94B INVEST
Alyono wrote:0Z EC has a sub 970mb cyclone right up the Ganges Delta
starting to get fearful as to how bad this will be
Indeed, it's very concerning
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- wxman57
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Re: BoB: 94B INVEST
...and IMD still says ZERO chance of development the next 3 days. Always on-the-ball over there...
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Re: BoB: 94B INVEST
wxman57 wrote:...and IMD still says ZERO chance of development the next 3 days. Always on-the-ball over there...
refresh the page. They now say "moderate" chance in 2-3 days
Seriously, anyone from the area should NOT use IMD products as they are simply unreliable
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Re: BoB: 94B INVEST
far too much easterly shear to allow for development during the next 24 hours. This may not take off for 48 more hours. However, it should find more favorable conditions in the northern BOB. I could see a 60-70 kt cyclone striking near the Ganges Delta
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Re: BoB: 94B INVEST
Myanmar appears to be out of play. This is Bangladesh or perhaps as far west as Kolkata
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Re: BoB: 94B INVEST
94B is elongated at 500mb,but its looking somewhat tighter aloft over the past 12hrs.
Mid level shear is also keeping 94B in check for the mean time.
Mid level shear is also keeping 94B in check for the mean time.
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