Texas Spring 2017

[Brent]

If we could keep this weather I'd be good lol

Apparently if DFW falls to 53 by morning it'll be the first record low since July 2014!!! Maybe we're turning a page on the last couple of years of warmth?

[Ntxw]

If we could keep this weather I'd be good lol

Apparently if DFW falls to 53 by morning it'll be the first record low since July 2014!!! Maybe we're turning a page on the last couple of years of warmth?

I'm rooting for the record! The chill spells the past few weeks have been nice and away from the trend. I hope its a page turned now that we are distant from the big El Nino

Not too shabby pattern for late May

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pattern is great. The rain is fabulous too. We need it.

[bubba hotep]

Current forecast lows for Wednesday morning are
just above the record lows at DFW (54 in 1940) and Waco (52 in
1917). If the urban heat island can`t prevent a record at DFW, it
will be the first record low for the site since July 20, 2014.

ETA: I see this was covered above, dooh

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro has nearly off the charts CAPE across N. Texas for Saturday and then fires off multiple rounds of storms.

[Yukon Cornelius]

12z Euro has nearly off the charts CAPE across N. Texas for Saturday and then fires off multiple rounds of storms.

What part of N. TX? Suppose to cut wheat that day!

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro has nearly off the charts CAPE across N. Texas for Saturday and then fires off multiple rounds of storms.

What part of N. TX? Suppose to cut wheat that day!

Looks like mostly east of 281 give or take a bit.

[Yukon Cornelius]

12z Euro has nearly off the charts CAPE across N. Texas for Saturday and then fires off multiple rounds of storms.

What part of N. TX? Suppose to cut wheat that day!

Looks like mostly east of 281 give or take a bit.

Thanks man. I'm not very far to the east of 281 so I'll have to keep an eye on things.

[Brent]

Looks like more below normal temperatures could return to close out May...

I could get used to that all summer.

[srainhoutx]

A rather chilly 56F in NW Harris County this morning. Is this late May in SE Texas?

[Yukon Cornelius]

49 this morning. What season is this again?!

[weatherdude1108]

55 this morning at my house.

Now, if we can get these kinds of morning temperatures all Summer, we'd be in business!

But I guess if that were to happen, 150 more people a day would want to move here, further gridlocking the already clogged highways (like what happened in southern California with constant sunny and 70s temperatures and resultant smog). The place was literally "loved to death". I guess people will move here regardless of 70s or 100s and smog/Mexican smoke. Where the jobs are at. Mini-rant done.

It really is BEAUTIFUL outside today. Wish I could take my office desk out there.

[TeamLemke]

What a nice day! Trying to enjoy this weather before the typical hot and humid summer kicks in.
Not looking forward to being in a constant state of swamp air at all...

[Brent]

70s and a cool wind with no humidity at 3pm right before Memorial Day weekend?

Most of the winter wasn't even this nice Christmas sure wasn't.

and yes I know Friday/Saturday is going to suck but we'll take what we can get.

[weatherdude1108]

Beautiful today, Summer the next few days, then back to Spring. I will take all the rain we can get, because we know hot/warm and dry is always around the corner, whether it is close to Summer, or in the middle of Winter.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
239 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Upper air analysis this morning showed a deep trough over the middle
of the country with the trough axis across East Texas. The upper
level flow was from the northwest. At the surface, high pressure was
building in behind a cold front and winds across our CWA were from
the west-northwest. Dewpoint temperatures were 15 to 20 degrees lower
than 24 hours ago. The upper level trough will move off to the east
and be replaced by a a low amplitude ridge during this period and the
flow will shift to west-southwesterly. The surface high will move off
the coast tonight and winds will turn to the south to southeast
Thursday. After a cool start Thursday morning the period will be dry
with warming temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The upper level ridge will slowly erode Friday and Saturday with the
flow becoming zonal by Sunday. Friday and Saturday will continue dry
with warming temperatures. Increasing temperatures and humidity will
drive heat indices above 100 over most of the area south of I-35/Hwy
90 and above 105 across the southwestern counties Friday and Saturday
afternoons for a few hours. A frontal boundary will move down from
the northwest reaching our northern border by Sunday morning and
pushing through our CWA by Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop ahead of the front and continue as it moves through. The
GFS and ECMWF are showing differences in timing and rainfall amount
with the GFS producing higher amounts. Still both models are showing
what could be a significant event, but the differences have our
confidence low. The front will stall somewhere over South Texas and
then a series of upper level short wave troughs will move through the
pattern keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through the end of the period.

[Cpv17]

I'm not buying the next rain event yet for SE Texas. According to the CPC we should be getting a deluge around here, but none of the models that I've seen have us getting over 1" over the next two weeks. Do they know something the models don't?

[bubba hotep]

Looks like it will be the broken record for DFW this weekend. Huge CAPE but an unbreakable cap... I can't ever remember the cap being this consistently stubborn in May. So once again, it will be up to timing of the frontal passage to determine rain totals. Maybe the models will bust on how far south the front will get hung up and we can score some rain from a farther north than anticipated stalled front.

[Brent]

Looks like it will be the broken record for DFW this weekend. Huge CAPE but an unbreakable cap... I can't ever remember the cap being this consistently stubborn in May. So once again, it will be up to timing of the frontal passage to determine rain totals. Maybe the models will bust on how far south the front will get hung up and we can score some rain from a farther north than anticipated stalled front.

If it's gonna be pushing 100 degrees it needs to rain come on

I do think at some point these fronts have to stop clearing the area... honestly I'm kind of surprised they still have been so far.

Tonight the 0z Euro has over an inch of rain Sunday at DFW

[TheProfessor]

It looks like SPC has gone with a slight risk for most of DFW including Denton, Tarrant, and Dallas counties. There's a hatched area the extends NE and just SW of these counties as well. It seems Collin County is actually in the current enhanced risk. I'm guessing that if the confidences begins to grow that Storms will form west of here then the Enhanced risk will likely be extended further southwest to match the hatched area.

[weatherdude1108]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
634 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Another unseasonably cool evening and morning has occurred across
South Central Texas given light and variable winds under clear skies.
Temperatures have fallen into the upper 50s in the Hill Country with
60s elsewhere, and they may continue to fall a few more degrees to
once again approach record lows at AUS (58 in 1975). Southerly flow
will return this morning to advect low-level moisture back into the
region, but skies will generally remain clear under the influence of
a mid-to-upper level ridge passing over Texas. High temperatures will
climb into the lower 90s across most of the region with some mid to
upper 90s in the Rio Grande Plains, several degrees warmer than
yesterday. Gusty southerly winds to 25 mph will be possible during
the evening hours with low clouds returning after Midnight to keep
low temperatures up in the lower to mid 70s across the region. These
clouds should lift by late Friday morning to allow temperatures to
warm back up near today`s highs, but with a significant increase in
humidity that will cause heat indices to climb into the 100-105
degree range across the region. The dryline will push into western
Val Verde County to create elevated fire weather concerns, but
capping aloft will prevent any convection from developing.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Saturday will generally be very similar to Friday across most of our
area aside from a slight increase in temperatures and heat indices
during the afternoon. Thus, Saturday will generally feel like the
hottest day of the period with a few isolated heat indices above 105
degrees and temperatures above 100 degrees in the Rio Grande Plains.
This slight increase in temperatures may be enough to help force
convection past the cap along the dryline which should be located
from western Val Verde County to somewhere between Brady and San
Angelo just west of our CWA. Any very isolated thunderstorms that
form would be able to take advantage of steep mid-level lapse rates
and shear values around 30-40 knots that may be marginally supportive
of supercells to cause a very conditional threat for large hail and
damaging winds. SPC has outlined our Edwards Plateau and western Hill
Country counties in a slight risk with a marginal risk approaching
the I-35 corridor for any cells that are able to move into our area.
However, it is important to note that this is a low probability, high
impact type of risk contingent on the cap breaking which typically
has not occurred over the past few weeks here without significant
synoptic forcing (like what we saw on Tuesday).

The cap will not be able to prevent convection from developing by
Sunday afternoon over the Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country as
a trough digging through the Rockies will help push a cold front
into region. Strong to severe storms may be possible during the
afternoon and evening hours as shear will be a bit higher, but
instability a bit lower given an increase in moisture aloft. These
storms may evolve into an MCS that pushes through the I-35 corridor
overnight before dissipating east of the area. If this scenario plays
out, the I-35 corridor would see a greater threat of damaging winds
than locally heavy rainfall. However, the strongest dynamic forcing
associated with the trough will be well N/NE of the region and the
cap aloft may prevent a significant complex from pushing through. In
that scenario, a stalling front and remnant outflow boundaries could
provide a focus for Monday morning convection along the Escarpment
and I-35 corridor where locally heavy rainfall would be a greater
threat than severe storms. Thus, we have 40-60 POPS across the
entire area during both the overnight Sunday into Monday and Monday
morning and afternoon periods as rain will likely occur in one if not
both of these two periods, with the progressive MCS scenario likely
causing a break in the action for most of the day on Memorial Day.

There is even greater uncertainty over the western portions of our
CWA including the Rio Grande Plains for what will occur Sunday night
into Monday where a progressive MCS appears less likely. Thus, a
slow-moving complex capable of producing locally heavy rainfall is a
distinct possibility per the GEFS ensembles and several operational
models, which could be assisted by a remnant circulation/MCV left
behind if a progressive MCS was able to develop and push through the
I-35 corridor. Given a weak LLJ that should be perpendicular to the
Escarpment and stalled front west of San Antonio, heavy rainfall
certainly definitely appears more likely for these areas at the
current moment on Sunday night into Monday then it does further
northeast of San Antonio. The key take home message is that everyone
across South Central Texas should be weather aware particularly for
the second half of this Memorial Day Weekend as the forecast comes
into clearer focus.

The model consensus suggests the wet and relatively cool period will
continue into at least the middle of next week as a steady stream of
shortwaves track over a stalled or remnant frontal boundary and set
of outflows. It is hard to depict confidence in any one period past
Memorial Day, but for now have gone with 50 POPs on Tuesday and
Wednesday with a slight decrease in POPs towards the end of next
week. However, it is often difficult to predict when these wet
periods will end as we transition out of spring into summer, so the
current forecast banks on model guidance underforecasting the ability
of this wet period to persist longer than it is thinking. At the very
least, this wetter and cooler than normal period should mitigate
drought and fire weather concerns moving into early summer. However,
increasingly saturated soils and elevated streams and rivers from
heavy rainfall may lead to an increasing flash flood threat through
the second half of the forecast period with additional events.