Texas Spring 2017

[bubba hotep]

While the main focus tomorrow will be to our north, the models are depicting some pretty impressive parameters across N. Texas tomorrow. It wouldn't be surprising to see SPC upgrade portions of the area tomorrow.

The Mike Ventrice index looks pretty impressive for tomorrow:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/864885478276960259

Latest high resolution models are indicating scattered strong to severe storms developing across central and north Texas tomorrow afternoon. Could be an active severe weather day tomorrow.

Ingesting that SPC actually went in the opposite direction and downgraded parts of N. Texas. However, they did slightly expand the mod into parts of NW Texad. The Euro, GFS, RGEM, TX Tech WRF, all show what appears to be convection across N. Texas tomorrow evening. The NAMs however don't show much at all, maybe SPC is putting a lot of stock into them. Also, the NCAR ensembles also highlight N and C Texax for tomorrow.

ETA: 18z 3k NAM has basically nothing south of the Red River tomorrow.

[Brent]

ETA: 18z 3k NAM has basically nothing south of the Red River tomorrow.

that's weird, I've seen several futurecasts on the local news showing a big line/MCS in DFW tomorrow evening

NAM doesn't really have anything in DFW through 6z Friday Night.

[TheProfessor]

ETA: 18z 3k NAM has basically nothing south of the Red River tomorrow.

that's weird, I've seen several futurecasts on the local news showing a big line/MCS in DFW tomorrow evening

NAM doesn't really have anything in DFW through 6z Friday Night.

I think what might be happening is that the NAM has a cap west of here and not enough lift for storms but the WRF models are either showing a very small and weak cap.

[bubba hotep]

ETA: 18z 3k NAM has basically nothing south of the Red River tomorrow.

that's weird, I've seen several futurecasts on the local news showing a big line/MCS in DFW tomorrow evening

NAM doesn't really have anything in DFW through 6z Friday Night.

I think what might be happening is that the NAM has a cap west of here and not enough lift for storms but the WRF models are either showing a very small and weak cap.

I haven't looked at soundings this afternoon but that sound reasonable. This is what FWD had in the afternoon AFD:

Having said that, the
forecast soundings for DFW certainly look favorable for severe
weather late afternoon into early evening as there is plenty of
CAPE and moisture. There is a bit of a cap to overcome and low
level shear is not overly impressive but the potential certainly
exists for severe storms to impact portions of the DFW metroplex
tomorrow. The latest couple of runs of the Texas Tech WRF are also
showing storms holding together and impacting the DFW metroplex
in the late afternoon to early evening hours.

[Brent]

that's weird, I've seen several futurecasts on the local news showing a big line/MCS in DFW tomorrow evening

NAM doesn't really have anything in DFW through 6z Friday Night.

I think what might be happening is that the NAM has a cap west of here and not enough lift for storms but the WRF models are either showing a very small and weak cap.

I haven't looked at soundings this afternoon but that sound reasonable. This is what FWD had in the afternoon AFD:

Having said that, the
forecast soundings for DFW certainly look favorable for severe
weather late afternoon into early evening as there is plenty of
CAPE and moisture. There is a bit of a cap to overcome and low
level shear is not overly impressive but the potential certainly
exists for severe storms to impact portions of the DFW metroplex
tomorrow. The latest couple of runs of the Texas Tech WRF are also
showing storms holding together and impacting the DFW metroplex
in the late afternoon to early evening hours.

Yeah CBS 11 at least had a nasty looking bow echo over Dallas at 5pm. Sounds lovely.

Almost the entire 18z GFS has below normal temperatures lol

[bubba hotep]

Almost the entire 18z GFS has below normal temperatures lol

That may end up being the bigger story, May could end up below normal. Just imagine if we got this -EPO & -NAO in Jan or Feb...

[Brent]

Almost the entire 18z GFS has below normal temperatures lol

That may end up being the bigger story, May could end up below normal. Just imagine if we got this -EPO & -NAO in Jan or Feb...

I know, what could have been...

hopefully the winter signals get better

[bubba hotep]

Above normal precipitation with warm temps for this summer?

[Ntxw]

HRRR is advertising some storms across DFW this evening, might want to watch those.

[bubba hotep]

HRRR is advertising some storms across DFW this evening, might want to watch those.

There is huge CAPE out in front of those cells, could be some big time hailers.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, high risk is along the KS/Okla border but big time juicy atmosphere down here. Low level sheer isn't great but very unstable as bubba mentioned. Anything that forms will be nasty, keep watch of radar around rush hour to early evening. Storm movement from SW to NE.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Looks like possible large hail will be the biggest concern with the storms up here along the river. Up in N. Oklahoma and Kansas looks to be a totally different story. Hopefully these storms hold off until after I can pick the kiddo up from school.

[bubba hotep]

Things could be getting underway already
 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/865240973667946496

[bubba hotep]

Not surprising, DFW upgraded to ENH. Odd sequence by SPC, downgraded yesterday afternoon only to upgrade to Slight and then ENH today.

[TheProfessor]

Not surprising, DFW upgraded to ENH. Odd sequence by SPC, downgraded yesterday afternoon only to upgrade to Slight and then ENH today.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/im ... swody1.png

Yeah I was expecting this. If storms fire, hail potential seems to be above a slight risk.

[TheProfessor]

I wouldn't sleep on tornadoes either, although low compared to up north SPC still has 5% for the Western half of the Metro. The RAP and HRRR have fairly low LCLs and LFCs and although the winds are a bit weak on both the HRRR has some decent turning at 0z and the RAP has even better turning. With the CAPE so high you might not need much if the storm isn't elevated.

[bubba hotep]

I wouldn't sleep on tornadoes either, although low compared to up north SPC still has 5% for the Western half of the Metro. The RAP and HRRR have fairly low LCLs and LFCs and although the winds are a bit weak on both the HRRR has some decent turning at 0z and the RAP has even better turning. With the CAPE so high you might not need much if the storm isn't elevated.

Yeah, good point, the DFW area could be well up there in CAPE so it wouldn't take as much shear as some other setups:

[Portastorm]

Meanwhile, further south, those of us in south central Texas are likely going to get screwed by the frickin' cap once again. This has been the story for the last 4-5 weeks (at least) where any measurable rainfall is squelched by the dreaded cap. Ugh.

And yeah, yeah, yeah ... don't tell me about the weekend forecast. I know it but I'll believe it when the rain actually falls.

#GrumpyPort

[TheProfessor]

A Tornado watch has been issued

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 236
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
portions of northern and central Texas

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the
next hour or so across portions of northern and central Texas,
expanding in coverage as they spread eastward/northeastward through
the afternoon and evening hours. Along with risk for a couple of
tornadoes, very large/destructive hail and damaging wind gusts will
be likely with the strongest storms/bands of storms.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 70 miles west of Abilene TX to 45
miles southeast of Fort Worth TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 235...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.

[Yukon Cornelius]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
115 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
western Oklahoma
western north Texas

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until
800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 4 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop/increase rapidly
over the next 1-2 hours across eastern portions of the Texas
Panhandle and into western Oklahoma and western north Texas,
spreading northeastward with time. Multiple rounds of storm
redevelopment will be possible over western parts of the watch. In
addition to the risk for very large/damaging hail and locally
damaging winds, tornadoes -- a couple likely to be
significant/intense -- are expected.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Alva OK to
75 miles west southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23040.

...Goss