Texas Spring 2017

[Ntxw]

Hopefully, we can hold onto the cool May anomalies, something like 70% of summers following a below normal May were below normal. Also, the QBO appears to finally be flipping. The winter of '09/10 had a summer QBO flip.

For the first time in 24+ months we have an easterly QBO

[Cpv17]

What kind of pattern would we need to get rain for the southern half of Texas?

[bubba hotep]

What kind of pattern would we need to get rain for the southern half of Texas?

A lot depends on how fast the high lat blocking breaks down and how that happens. The MJO looks to signal a return to a more active weather pattern by mid-month. Maybe a system finally kicks out across Texas bringing good rains to everyone vs. missing us to the north (the pattern so far this spring). The migration around to Phase 2 could bring a more active pattern.

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/860628816762425344

[Ntxw]

Pleasant cool morning for May. DFW is now -1.4F below normal through the first week or so. Nothing extreme the next 7 days temps wise, May can easily go into the 90s especially the deeper into the month you get so enjoy these pleasant temperatures while you can.

Looking ahead, perhaps midweek some thunderstorm opportunities before another front knocks us down below normal for next weekend.

[Ntxw]

What kind of pattern would we need to get rain for the southern half of Texas?

For Texas in general, preferably a Super Typhoon in the west Pacific, a major hurricane in the east Pacific, a roaring subtropical jet with OLR (longwave radiation) screaming from the international dateline to the state. This all happened May of 2015 (STY NOUL and cat 4 Andres). Seemingly everyday someone somewhere had flood watches. Oh and a Super El Nino to boot...

The maps for 5-7 day qpf basically was just this constantly



DFW, Austin, Houston, SA all were near or close to record monthly rainfall.

May be another 50 years until we see something like that again (1957-2015)

[hriverajr]

Don't know if you all are aware of this... Here is a link to live Goes 16 satellite loops:

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... us-02-48-1

[horselattitudesfarm]

I can't believe it only got up to the lower 40's here in the southern appalachians. Cool, wet. rainy, foggy has been the theme for most of April and definitely the 1rst week of May. There might even be some snow abovve 5000 feet here tonight. I guess this is what living under Trough #4 is like. I total 180 reversal of what last summer and fall were like between Texas and us.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like svr wx risk returns to DFW Wed and Thur but once again the timing looks off. Wed looks like things might be too far west and Thur looks like another day of storms potentially firing too far east to bring any significant rain to DFW. A lot can change over the week, esp. giving how stubborn these blocks can be when breaking down.

[bubba hotep]

The latest thinking from FWD on the system next week:

[weatherdude1108]

Rain chances went from 40% to 30% for Thursday/Friday. Maybe down to 20% later. going once...twice...

It was beautiful this weekend, but way too dry for my liking. Felt like California in the mountains in Summer, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, unless you need rain.

[Portastorm]

Rain chances went from 40% to 30% for Thursday/Friday. Maybe down to 20% later. going once...twice...

It was beautiful this weekend, but way too dry for my liking. Felt like California in the mountains in Summer, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, unless you need rain.

If the GFS is to be believed, our area of the state won't be seeing much rain at all over the next two weeks. It's very worrisome. Won't be long now before the summer furnace turns on and we won't see any rain outside of a TUTT low or tropical system.

[Ntxw]

Starting to feel a little dry here, I can notice some grass starting to brown and die. Patchy so far but my locale has been similar to the airport where the past 30 days rain was patchy and largely missed to the east. Its been a month or so since DFW officially recorded an inch or more. May is the wettest month and we are starting to fall behind now both for month and year.

Temp wise we are now near normal at -0.2 to date

[Yukon Cornelius]

Rain chances went from 40% to 30% for Thursday/Friday. Maybe down to 20% later. going once...twice...

It was beautiful this weekend, but way too dry for my liking. Felt like California in the mountains in Summer, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, unless you need rain.

Same here. Originally was at a 60% chance for Wednesday and a 50% chance for Thursday. The chance for any rain has been dropping everyday to where I doubt we will see anything. Its been the same with every chance of rain so far this spring. We also haven't had any severe thunderstorms this spring, which is definitely strange. My grazing pastures are drying up and turning brown fast.

[Ntxw]

Rain chances went from 40% to 30% for Thursday/Friday. Maybe down to 20% later. going once...twice...

It was beautiful this weekend, but way too dry for my liking. Felt like California in the mountains in Summer, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, unless you need rain.

Same here. Originally was at a 60% chance for Wednesday and a 50% chance for Thursday. The chance for any rain has been dropping everyday to where I doubt we will see anything. Its been the same with every chance of rain so far this spring. We also haven't had any severe thunderstorms this spring, which is definitely strange. My grazing pastures are drying up and turning brown fast.

I am hopeful that innvest 90E in the Epac becomes a hurricane and drifts westward with it's moisture drawn up from a big western trough. We need the tropical Pacific feed, otherwise rainfall isn't as widespread when we depend on upper level features that go too far north and west this time of year as has been the case. First half the month is not helpful but perhaps second half will be better.

[JDawg512]

I have awoken from my slumber. Looking at a darkening sky to the southwest eagerly anticipating a garden variety storm which developed in Hays County. Finally it looks like some rain will fall.

[weatherdude1108]

I have awoken from my slumber. Looking at a darkening sky to the southwest eagerly anticipating a garden variety storm which developed in Hays County. Finally it looks like some rain will fall.

I just heard a couple claps of thunder here at work!

[JDawg512]

Was neat to watch the radar this afternoon. Showers moving in southeast to northwest but the individual storms were moving from south/southwest to north/northeast.

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah today was a nice little surprise across south central Texas.

The latest long range models are looking increasingly wet across much of the northern half of Texas, especially late next week.

[Brent]

GFS has a big rain event around day 10 hmmm well see if we get some consistency

[bubba hotep]

Yeah today was a nice little surprise across south central Texas.

The latest long range models are looking increasingly wet across much of the northern half of Texas, especially late next week.

12z Euro EPS was one of the wettest runs in a long time for Texas. Then there is the 18z GFS (the lol on this board isn't sarcastic enough for my taste but I still use it from time to time)



It looks like the remnants of the Pacific system will leave plenty of moisture for that system to tap into as it moves across Texas.

 https://twitter.com/whatisthisrds/status/862136043209994240