Texas Spring 2017

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just checked the divergence on the SPC mesoscale, its right where there storms are, NNE of Houston, if the divergence makes it down here, could get nasty but i dont know if it will. We may just have a few showers from the front shoving this soupy air over the top of it.

[JDawg512]

Nada here, no surprise. Well at least I can water today but it's so much better when it falls from the sky.

Sooooo... who wants to speculate when the next significant rain maker for central/south Texas will happen? My crystal ball is cracked, gonna have to get a new one

[Brent]

Nada here, no surprise. Well at least I can water today but it's so much better when it falls from the sky.

Sooooo... who wants to speculate when the next significant rain maker for central/south Texas will happen? My crystal ball is cracked, gonna have to get a new one

It's gonna be awhile... maybe a shot next Wednesday or Thursday but probably be a quick shot like the last couple

The big story on the LR GFS is the below normal temperatures.

[ravyrn]

I live in Jacksonville, TX and work in Palestine. Nothing but a little rain and thunder in Palestine. Jacksonville got some dime-sized hail around 4:30pm or so just before I got off of work. Some of my coworkers I was speaking to showed me some pics from their friends on social media in the SW Tyler area with ping pong-sized hail. Had dime-sized hail in Teague out at the Boyd unit and the unit lost power. Lots of power outages in areas east and north of me towards Henderson and Tyler. Also had golf-ball sized hail between the Buffalo and Elkhart areas.

[Ntxw]

DFW airport picked up an astonishing 0.02" of rain. It's been over a month since an inch or more has fallen at the airport. Under-performering QPF events so far, overall for spring thus far it's been so-so. March was below normal, April slightly above.

Cool air has been good though the past 2 weeks!

[JDawg512]

It has been nice seeing a couple of cool days here and there but they don't last long at all before we shoot up to above normal temps. There really hasn't been a good stable period of temps, rather we get one or two days of cool or average then shoot up into the upper 80s/low 90s then cool down for a day or two and start all over again. I'm inclined not to believe any temp models that show at or below normal temps going forward especially since we are drying out. Its only going to get hotter.

[lrak]

Can the cold cloud tops from Northern Mexico help enhance the frontal passage rain wise for south Texas? I've watched the radar and satellite at the same time and it looks like the storms like old cold thunderheads? Western San Antonio is getting it now.

[weatherdude1108]

It has been nice seeing a couple of cool days here and there but they don't last long at all before we shoot up to above normal temps. There really hasn't been a good stable period of temps, rather we get one or two days of cool or average then shoot up into the upper 80s/low 90s then cool down for a day or two and start all over again. I'm inclined not to believe any temp models that show at or below normal temps going forward especially since we are drying out. Its only going to get hotter.

What a depressing series of rain systems gone phantom here. Either hot and breezy/windy with high humidity or cool and windy with desert dry humidity, rinse...repeat.

I am thankful for cooler temps, but cooler temps without ground moisture heat the ground up really fast in the full Sun. This feels similar to a 2011 Spring/Summer analog.

[Cpv17]

What a boring weather pattern. No real threat of rain here in SE TX for the next 10 days. Haven't had a good rain around here since the beginning of April.

[Brent]

Already seen one chaser talk about May being a lost cause on chasing... lol, remember when this year was on record pace for tornadoes and how chasers couldn't wait for the real season to start?

[Ntxw]

Freak -NAO and great lakes trough making it a lousy chasing pattern . Good for us though temps wise no heat waves. It is drier than I'd like, I just hope the 1980 +neutral pattern doesn't prop up. We know how that was

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Man, we have had a great winter pattern these last few weeks! If only!

[gboudx]

I'm glad the chasers are having a lousy season. Means less destruction, injuries, hardship and fatalities. Seems like a good thing to me.

[Brent]

Man, we have had a great winter pattern these last few weeks! If only!

See thats why it actually annoys me a bit... don't get me wrong the weather could be much worse this time of year but on the other hand I'm like why couldn't we get this when it truly mattered lol

[KatDaddy]

1980: Hurricane Allen and the Texas Heat Wave

[Ntxw]

1980: Hurricane Allen and the Texas Heat Wave

None of that, we all want 2004 or 2007 type summer

Pretty lousy rainwise next week or two (but beautiful if you like chamber of commerce weather) for what should be the wettest month for most. Temp wise is beautiful for May. DFW is -0.9F for the month to date...given small sample but haven't had the chance to say that in awhile nonetheless

Reminding meteorological summer begins next month and we will be doing our migration to that thread for JJA (June-July-August). If you think about it, after that fall is back!

[Brent]

1980: Hurricane Allen and the Texas Heat Wave

None of that, we all want 2004 or 2007 type summer

Pretty lousy rainwise next week or two (but beautiful if you like chamber of commerce weather) for what should be the wettest month for most. Temp wise is beautiful for May. DFW is -0.9F for the month to date...given small sample but haven't had the chance to say that in awhile nonetheless

Reminding meteorological summer begins next month and we will be doing our migration to that thread for JJA (June-July-August). If you think about it, after that fall is back!

Less than 2 months til the days start getting shorter.

[weatherdude1108]

I liked one of FWD's paragraphs in the afternoon forecast discussion. You just usually don't see these kinds of discussions in the the EWX office with that degree of technicality.

A lot of good explanations of the large scale patterns come out of the FWD office discussions. I always enjoy reading them and learning from them.


To thank for this stretch of unusually benign early-May weather is
a remarkably coherent wavenumber 6 synoptic pattern in place
across the Northern Hemisphere. A nicely amplified ridge axis
presently slices through the Nation's midsection, with two closed
upper-lows forming the bookends to an unwavering Omega Block over
the CONUS, and this general pattern repeats three more times
upstream. These types of patterns can be difficult to break down,
but break down they must (eventually).

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[Ntxw]

I liked one of FWD's paragraphs in the afternoon forecast discussion. You just usually don't see these kinds of discussions in the the EWX office with that degree of technicality.

A lot of good explanations of the large scale patterns come out of the FWD office discussions. I always enjoy reading them and learning from them.


To thank for this stretch of unusually benign early-May weather is
a remarkably coherent wavenumber 6 synoptic pattern in place
across the Northern Hemisphere. A nicely amplified ridge axis
presently slices through the Nation's midsection, with two closed
upper-lows forming the bookends to an unwavering Omega Block over
the CONUS, and this general pattern repeats three more times
upstream. These types of patterns can be difficult to break down,
but break down they must (eventually).

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

I love these kinds of discussions! The severe -NAO is playing a fairly big role in the wavenumber 6 pattern. You can count the 6 troughs pinwheeling around the block across the NHEM.



Had this pattern occurred during Jan/Feb would've been chilly.

[bubba hotep]

1980: Hurricane Allen and the Texas Heat Wave

None of that, we all want 2004 or 2007 type summer

Pretty lousy rainwise next week or two (but beautiful if you like chamber of commerce weather) for what should be the wettest month for most. Temp wise is beautiful for May. DFW is -0.9F for the month to date...given small sample but haven't had the chance to say that in awhile nonetheless

Reminding meteorological summer begins next month and we will be doing our migration to that thread for JJA (June-July-August). If you think about it, after that fall is back!

Less than 2 months til the days start getting shorter.

Hopefully, we can hold onto the cool May anomalies, something like 70% of summers following a below normal May were below normal. Also, the QBO appears to finally be flipping. The winter of '09/10 had a summer QBO flip.